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Developing and Identifying Possibility & Plausibility of E-Government Services Scenarios in Iran by 1404 | ||
Journal of Information Technology Management | ||
مقاله 4، دوره 7، شماره 1، تیر 2015، صفحه 49-68 اصل مقاله (559.13 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jitm.2015.53239 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
Fateme Sghafi* 1؛ Alireza Aliahmadi2؛ Seyed Sepehr Ghazi Noory3؛ Mansoureh Hourali4 | ||
1Assistant Prof., Interdisciplinary Department of Technology, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
2Prof., Faculty of Industries, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
3Associate Prof., Economic and Management Dept., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
4Ph.D. Candidate, Industry Engineering, Payam-E Noor University, Tehran, Iran | ||
چکیده | ||
Many documents in the field of e-government services in Iran have been developed and recently approved, but these documents were ignored future trends and scenarios. The aim of research is developing futures scenario of e-government services by 1404. In this study, using the global network business and success factors, the important uncertainties are identified by expert’s opinions. Population is of 50 Iranian e-government experts and futurists. The current research is the compound research. Using questionnaires and analysis of documents and expert panel, the required data are gathered. Validity of the questionnaire assessed using the panel of experts and the Cronbach's alpha was used for validation. With determination of three uncertainty composed of trust, interoperability and world trade market entry according to the expert's views as the main scenario, eight scenarios were extracted. Then, with the help of experts, four scenario with higher degree of feasibility were selected which allows policymakers to deal with the best possible of future situation. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
e-government scenario method؛ Futures Studies؛ uncertainty | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
تدوین و شناسایی سناریوهای امکانپذیرآیندۀ خدمات دولت الکترونیک ایران در افق 1404 | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
فاطمه ثقفی1؛ علیرضا علی احمدی2؛ سید سپهر قاضی نوری3؛ منصوره حورعلی4 | ||
1استادیار گروه بینرشتهای فناوری، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
2استاد، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران | ||
3دانشیار گروه مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
4دانشجوی دکتری گروه مهندسی صنایع، مرکز تحصیلات تکمیلی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
در حوزۀ خدمات دولت الکترونیکی، اسناد زیادی در ایران بهتازگی پس از تدوین به تصویب رسیدند، اما روندها و سناریوهای آینده را نادیده گرفتند. هدف این پژوهش تدوین سناریوهای آیندۀ خدمات دولت الکترونیک ایران در افق سال 1404 است. این پژوهش بهکمک روش سناریونگاری شبکة جهانی کسبوکار و عوامل مؤثر بر موفقیت و با توجه به نظر خبرگان، مهمترین عدم قطعیتها را در این حوزه شناسایی میکند. جامعۀ آماری را 50 نفر از خبرگان دولت الکترونیک و آیندهپژوهان ایران شکل میدهد. پژوهش حاضر از نوع ترکیبی است. برای گردآوری دادهها از توزیع پرسشنامه، بررسی اسناد و مدارک و پنل تخصصی استفاده شد. برای سنجش روایی و اعتبار پرسشنامه، بهترتیب از پنل خبرگان و ضریب آلفای کرونباخ بهره برده شد. مطابق نظر خبرگان با تعیین سه عدم قطعیت اعتماد، تعاملپذیری و ورود به بازار جهانی تجارت بهمثابۀ محورهای اصلی سناریونویسی، هشت سناریو استخراج شد. در ادامه بهکمک خبرگان چهار سناریو با بیشترین درجۀ امکانپذیری که امکان سیاستگذاری برای مواجهه با بهترین آینده را امکانپذیر میکند، انتخاب شد. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
آینده پژوهی, دولت الکترونیک, سناریونویسی, عدم قطعیت | ||
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