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Data mining of Students Withdrawal at University of Tehran, Focusing on Fee Paid Students (to prevent customer churn) | ||
| Journal of Information Technology Management | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 7، شماره 2، مهر 2015، صفحه 217-238 اصل مقاله (445.25 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jitm.2015.53969 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Saied Ali Akbar Ahmadi1؛ Davood Karimzadgan2؛ Toraj Khairati Kazerooni* 3 | ||
| 1Prof. Faculty of Management , Payam Noor University West Unit, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Prof. Faculty of Computer Engineering , Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3MSc. Student in Information Technology Management, Faculty of Manegent Payam Noor University of Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Student withdrawal in higher education is one the important challenges in universities. This paper considers the admission of fee paid students as a business and their withdrawals as customer churn. The aim is to investigate the attrition and predicted risk of attrition to adapt interventionist polices deterrent. This study is a descriptive an applicable technique that uses quantitative and qualitative data. It uses Crisp technology of data mining. The data are derived from educational system of University of Tehran including 21420 fee paid students accepted at 2010 to 2014. The main goal is to analyze the behavior that is at risk of attrition and withdrawal. After data analyze and construction of predictive modeling, the probability table of attrition and regression model will be presented. The final results show that the first and second semester (especially the age range 24-31) of M.Sc students are the most likely risk of withdrawal of happening. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| customer churn؛ customer relation management؛ educational data mining؛ withdrawal | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| داده کاوی دانشجویان انصرافی دانشگاه تهران با تمرکز بر حفظ دانشجویان شهریه پرداز (جلوگیری از روی گردانی مشتری) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| سید علی اکبر احمدی1؛ داوود کریم زادگان2؛ تورج خیراتی کازرونی3 | ||
| 1استاد گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه پیام نور واحد غرب، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار گروه مهندسی کامپیوتر، دانشگاه پیام نور سازمان مرکزی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشگاه پیام نور واحد غرب، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| انصراف دانشجو یکی از چالش‌های پیش روی آموزش عالی است. مقالۀ حاضر رویکرد پذیرش دانشجوی شهریهپرداز را نوعی کسبوکار و انصراف دانشجو را رویگردانی مشتری در نظر گرفته است و بهدنبال بررسی عوامل انصراف دانشجویان و اتخاذ سیاست‌های مداخلهجویانۀ بازدارنده است. پژوهش پیش رو کاربردی از نوع توصیفی است که بهکمک داده‌های کمی و کیفی بر مبنای روش پژوهش کریسپ از دادهکاوی اطلاعات دانشجویان ورودی شهریهپرداز (21420 دانشجو دانشگاه تهران طی سال‌های 1392- 1388) استخراجشده از بانک‌های اطلاعاتی سیستم آموزش دانشگاه تهران، اجرا شده است. هدف آن، تحلیل رفتار دانشجویان بهمنظور شناسایی دانشجویان در معرض خطر انصراف و ارائۀ مدل پیش‌بینی احتمال انصراف است. پس از تحلیل داده‌ها و ارائۀ مدل پیش‌بینی، جدول احتمال انصراف و مدل رگرسیونی انصراف، یافتههای پژوهش ترم اول و دوم (بهویژه ترم اول در دورۀ سنی 31-24 سال) را بهمنزلۀ پرخطرترین دورۀ زمانی، دانشجویان ارشد را مستعدترین مقطع و دورۀ شبانه را پرخطرترین دورۀ تحصیلی برای انصراف دانشجو (رویگردانی مشتری) شناسایی کرد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| انصراف, داده‌کاوی‌آموزشی, رویگردانی مشتری, مدیریت ارتباط با مشتری | ||
| مراجع | ||
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