Climate change scenarios generated by using GCM outputs and statistical downscaling in an arid region

Bates, B.C., S.P. Charles, J.P. Hughes, 1998. Stochastic
downscaling of numerical climate model simulations.
Eviron. Modell. Softw. 13, 325–331.
Brier, G.W., 1950. Verification of forecasts expressed in
terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 78, 1–3.
Busuioc, A., D. Chen, C. Hellström, 2001. Performance of
statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and
regional climate change estimates, Application for
Swedish precipitation. Int. J. Climatol. 21, 557–578.
Charles, S.P., B.C. Bates, J.P. Hughes, 1999. A
spatiotemporal model for downscaling precipitation
occurrence and amounts. J. Geophys. Res. 104(D24),
31657–31669.
Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X.
Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.T. Kwon, R.
Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menéndez,
J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr, P. Whetton, 2007.
Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007,
The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.
Cubasch, U., H. von Storch, J.Waszkewitz, E. Zorita, 1996.
Estimates of climate change in Southern Europe derived
from dynamical climate model output. Climate Res. 7,
129–149.
Dai, X.G., Li, W.H., Ma, Z.G., P.Wang, 2007. Water–vapor
source shift of Xinjiang region during the recent twenty
years. Prog. Nat. Sci. 17(5), 569–575.
Diaz–Nieto, J., R.L.Wilby, 2005. A comparison of statistical
downscaling and climate change factor methods, impacts
on low flows in the river Thames, United Kingdom.
Climatic Change 69, 245–268.
Dibike, Y.B., P. Coulibaly, 2005. Hydrologic impact of
climate change in the Saguenay watershed, comparison
of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. J.
Hydrol. 307, 145–163.
Dibike, Y.B., P. Coulibaly, 2006. Temporal neural networks
for downscaling climate variability and extremes. Neural
Networks 19, 135–144.
Forney, G.D. Jr., 1978. The Viterbi algorithm. P. IEEE 61,
268–278.
Gachon, P., Y. Dibike, 2007. Temperature change signals in
northern Canada, convergence of statistical downscaling
results using two driving GCMs. Int. J. Climatol. 27,
1623–1641.
Giorgi, F., Coauthors, 2001. Regional climate information
Evaluation and projections. In: Climate Change 2001,
The Scientific Basis. J. T. Houghton et al. (Eds.),
Cambridge University Press, 583–638.
Harvey, L.D.D., T.M.L. Wigley, 2003. Charactering and
comparing control–run variability of eight coupled
AOGCMs and of observations Part 1: temperature. 

Climate dyn. 21, 619–646.
Huges, J.P., P. Guttopp, 1994. Incorporating spatial
dependence and atmospheric data in a model of
precipitation. J. Appl. Meteorol. 33(12), 1503–1515.
Hughes, J.P., P. Guttorp, S.P. Charles, 1999. A non–
homogeneous hidden Markov model for precipitation
occurrence. Appl. Stat.-J. Roy. St. C. 48(1), 15–30.
IPCC, 2007, Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate
Change 2007, The Physical Science Basis. Contribution
of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Solomon, S., D. QIn: M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.
Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. pp 18.
Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D.
Deaven, L. GandIn: M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J.
Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah,W. Ebisuzaki,W. Higgins,
J. Janowiak, K.C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A.
Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, D. Joseph, 1996. The
NCEP/NCAR 40–Year Reanalysis Project. B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc. 77(3), 437–471.
Karl, T.R., W.C. Wang, M.E. Schlesinger, R.W. Knight,
D. Portman, 1990. A method of relating general
circulation model simulated climate to observed local
climate. Part I, Seasonal statistics. J. Climate 3, 1053–
1079.
Kistler, R., E. Kalnay, W. Collins, S. Saha, G. White, J.
Woollen, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, V. Kanamitsu, M.
Kousky, H. van den Dool, R. Jenne, M. Fiorino, 2001.
The NCEP/NCAR 50–year reanalysis. B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc. 82, 247–267.
Liu, Z.F., Z.X. Xu, S.P. Charles, G.B. Fu, L. Liu, 2010.
Evaluation of two statistical downscaling models for
daily precipitation over an arid basin in China. Int. J.
Climatol. (in press)
McAvaney, B., C. Covey, S. Joussaume, V. Kattsov, A.
Kitoh, W. Ogana, A. Pitman, A. Weaver, R. Wood, Z.C.
Zhao, 2001. Climate change 2001, the scientific basis,
chap. 8, model evaluation. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC.
University Press, Cambridge
Mu, Q.Z., C.S. Jackson, P.L. Stoffa, 2004. A multivariate
empirical–orthogonal–function–based measure of
climate model performance. J. geophys. Res. 109,
D15101.
Murphy, J.M., 1999. An evaluation of statistical and
dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. J.
Climate 12, 2256–2284.
Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman, N.J. Holbrook, J. Mcaneney,
2007. Evaluation of the AR4 climate models’ simulated
daily maximum air temperature, minimum air
temperature, and precipitation over Australia using
probability density functions. J. Climate 20, 4356–4376.
Prudhomme, C., H. Davies, 2009. Assessing uncertainties in
climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes
in the UK. Part 1, baseline climate. Climate Change 93,
177–195. DOI, 10.1007/s10584–008–9464–3.
Qian, W.H.,A. Qin, 2008. Precipitation division and climate
shift in China from 1960 to 2000. Theor. Appl. Climatol.
93, 1–17.
Robertson, A.W., S. Kershner, P. Smyth, 2004. Downscaling
of Daily Rainfall Occurrence over Northeast Brazil
Using a Hidden Markov Model. J. Climate 17, 4407–
4424.
Schubert, S., A.H. Sellers, 1997. A statistical model to
downscale local daily temperature extremes from
synoptic–scale atmospheric circulation patterns in the
Australian region. Clim. Dynam. 13, 223–234.
Schubert, S., 1998. Downscaling local extreme temperature
changes in south–eastern Australia from the CSIRO
Mark2 GCM. Int. J. Climatol. 18, 1419–1438.
Timbal, B., A. Dufour, B. McAvaney, 2003. An estimate of
future climate change for western France using a
statistical downscaling technique. Clim. Dynam. 20,
807–823. DOI 10.1007/s00382–002–0298–9.
Wetterhall, F., A. Bárdossy, D.L. Chen, S. HalldIn: C.Y. Xu,
2006. Daily precipitation–downscaling techniques in
three Chinese regions. Water Resour. Res. 42, W11423.
DOI,10.1029/2005WR004573.
Wilby, R.L., S.P. Charles, E. Zorita, B. Timbal, P. Whetton,
L.O. Mearns, 2004. Guidelines for use of climate
scenarios developed from statistical downscaling
methods. Supporting material of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), prepared on behalf of
Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts
and Climate Analysis (TGICA).
<http,//ipccddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/guidelines/StatDown_
Guide.pdf>.
Wilby, R.L., O.J. Tomlinson, C.W. Dawson, 2003. Multi–
site simulation of precipitation by conditional
resampling. Climate Res. 23, 183–194.
Wilby, R.L., P.G.Whitehead, A.J.Wade, D. Butterfield, R.J.
Davis, G. Watts, 2006. Integrated modelling of climate
change impacts on water resources and quality in a
lowland catchment_River Kennet, UK. J. Hydrol. 330,
204–220.
Wilby, R.L., T.M.L. Wigley, 2000. Precipitation predictors
for downscaling, Observed and general circulation model
relationships. Int. J. Climatol. 20, 641–661.
Wilby, R.L., T.M.L. Wigley, 1997. Downscaling general
circulation model output, A review of methods and
limitations. Prog. Phys. Geog. 214, 530–548.
Wilby, R.L., C.W. Dawson, E.M. Barrow, 2002. SDSM—A
decision support tool for the assessment of regional
climate change impacts. Eviron. Modell. Softw. 17, 147–
159.
Wilby, R.L., L.E. Hay, W.J.Jr. Gutowski, R.W. Arritt, E.S.
Takle, Z. Pan, G.H. Leavesley, M.P. Clark, 2000.
Hydrological Responses to Dynamically and Statistically
Downscaled Climate Model Output. Geophys. Res. Lett.
27, 1199–1202.
Wilks, D.S., R.L. Wilby, 1999. The weather generation
game, a review of stochastic weather models. Prog. Phys.
Geog. 23, 329–357.
Wise, E.K., 2009. Climate–based sensitivity of air quality to
climate change scenarios for the southwestern United
States. Int. J. Climatol. 29, 87–97.
Wood, A.W., L.R. Leung, V. Sridhar, D.P. Lettenmaier,
2004. Hydrologic implications of dynamical and
statistical approaches to downscaling climate model
outputs. Climatic Change 62, 189–216.
Xu, Z.X., Z.F. Liu, G.B. Fu, Y.N. Chen, 2010. Hydro-
Climate Trends of the Tarim River Basin for the Last 50
Years. J. Arid Environ. 74, 256–267.