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Futures of Iran’s Software Industry a Scenario Development Approach | ||
| Journal of Information Technology Management | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 8، شماره 4، دی 2016، صفحه 771-852 اصل مقاله (519.41 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jitm.2016.59390 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Seyed Sepehr GhaziNoory1؛ Fatemeh Saghafi* 2؛ Maryam Mirzaei3 | ||
| 1Associate Prof. in IT., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Prof., Interdisciplinary Department of Technology, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Ph.D. Candidate, Futures Studies, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The software industry is a manifestation of soft skills as well as human abstract and intangible thinking based on human intelligence. However, the effects are understandable. Passing the hardware era and considering software technologies reveals the necessity of the capable human factor and software industry. Despite the efforts that have been made in this field in Iran, yet the technology is not a sustainable industry. Consequently, planning in this field requires a deep consideration and futurology. This article provided alternative futures of the industry for domestic producers and policy makers. The scope of the research was Iranian software sectors until 1404. This study was conducted by applying qualitative methods, such as: PEST analysis, Porter's Forces, content analysis, semi-structured interviews with experts of software industry and developing scenarios by GBN on critical uncertainties. Finally, four scenarios were presented by two main uncertainties, including 1. Government policy and executive advocacy of the software industry, 2. International engagement of it. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| critical uncertainties؛ Futures Studies؛ Scenario؛ software industry | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| آیندۀ صنعت نرم‌افزار در ایران با رویکرد توسعۀ سناریو | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| سید سپهر قاضی نوری1؛ فاطمه ثقفی2؛ مریم میرزایی3 | ||
| 1دانشیار گروه مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار گروه بینرشتهای فناوری، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری گروه فناوری بینرشتهای، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| صنعت نرم‌افزار نمودی از مهارت‌های نرم و تفکر انتزاعی انسانی است. این نوع فناوری ناملموس و مبتنی بر هوش انسانی است، اما آثار درکپذیری دارد. گذشت عصر سخت‌افزار و توجه جهانی به فناوری‌های نرم، ضرورت توجه به عامل انسانی توانمند و صنعت نرم‌افزار را نمایان می‌کند. با وجود تلاش‌هایی که برای صنعت نرم‌افزار در ایران صورتگرفته، هنوز این فناوری به صنعت پایدار تبدیل نشده است. برنامه‌ریزی در این حوزه به نگاهی عمیق و آینده‌پژوهانه نیاز دارد. هدف مقالۀ حاضر، ارائۀ آیندۀ بدیل این صنعت برای تولید‌کنندۀ داخلی و سیاستگذاران است. حوزۀ این پژوهش به‌لحاظ جغرافیایی در ایران؛ از بعد زمانی، تا سال 1404 شمسی؛ و از نظر موضوعی، صنعت نرم‌افزار کشور است. این پژوهش با استفاده از روش‌های کیفی نظیر چارچوب‌های PEST و نیروهای پورتر و تحلیل محتوا، مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با خبرگان صنعت نرم‌افزار و سناریونگاری براساس عدم قطعیت‌های بحرانی یا GBN اجرا شده است. در نهایت، بر‌پایۀ دو عدم قطعیت اصلی، یعنی حمایت سیاستی و اجرایی دولت از صنعت نرم‌افزار و نیز تعامل بین‌المللی آن در ایران، چهار سناریو ترسیم شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| روش جی. بی. ان, سناریو, صنعت نرم‌افزار ایران, عدم قطعیت‌های بحرانی | ||
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