پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 161 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,532 |
| تعداد مقالات | 70,502 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 124,119,026 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 97,225,282 |
مطالعۀ اثر تغییرات بارش بر میزان آبدهی رودخانۀ درکه طی سالهای 1368ـ 1391 | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 14، دوره 3، شماره 3، مهر 1395، صفحه 465-476 اصل مقاله (1.2 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2016.60049 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| نگین بینش1؛ محمدحسین نیک سخن* 2؛ امین سارنگ3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی محیط زیست‌ـ منابع آب، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2دانشیار دانشکدۀ محیط زیست دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3استادیار دانشکدۀ محیط زیست دانشگاه تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| بارش و دبی جریان از مهم‌ترین پارامترهای اقلیمی و هیدرولوژیکی هستند که بررسی و شناسایی رفتار آنها در مدیریت منابع آب اهمیت زیادی دارد. از مناسبترین روشهای موجود برای ارزیابی شرایط هیدروکلیماتولوژی در حوضههای آبریز، تحلیل روند است که به‌منظور بررسی تغییرات یک متغیر در طول زمان استفاده می‌شود. تحقیق حاضر در دو بخش انجام شده است که در بخش اول به بررسی اثر تغییرات بارش بر دبی رودخانۀ درکه طی سالهای 1368ـ 1391 می‌پردازد. بدین‌منظور از دادههای بارش ماهانۀ ثبت‌شده در ایستگاه هفتحوضـ درکه استفاده شده و آزمونهایی مثل روش گرافیکی من‌ـ کندال و رگرسیون خطی بهکار گرفته شده است. همچنین ناهنجاریهای بارش و آبدهی رودخانه طی دورۀ 24 سالۀ مطالعه‌شده بررسی شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد سری زمانی بارش در حوضۀ درکه روندی مثبت و افزایشی داشته، هر چند این روند معنادار نیست. آبدهی رودخانه نیز در دورۀ بررسی‌شده با شیب بسیار اندکی افزایش یافته است و روند ندارد. در‌مجموع، می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که به‌جز برخی بازههای زمانی خاص، افزایش و کاهش بارش و دبی همسو نبوده است. بخش دوم به پیش‌بینی بارش آیندۀ حوضه با استفاده از مدل اقلیمی MRI-CGCM2.3.2a تحت سناریوی انتشار A1B در سه افق زمانی 2030، 2060، و 2090 می‌پردازد. نتایج در‌مجموع نشان از کاهش مقدار بارش حوضه در دورۀ آتی دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آبدهی رودخانه؛ پیش بینی بارش؛ رگرسیون خطی؛ مدل اقلیمی؛ من‌ـ کندال | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| A study of the effect of rainfall variability on Darakeh river flow rate during 1989-2012 | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Negin Binesh1؛ Mohamad Hosein Niksokhan2؛ Amin Sarang3 | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Rainfall and flow rate are of the most important climatic and hydrologic parameters whose investigation and determination of their behavior are of great importance in water resources management. One of the most suitable methods available for assessment of hydro-climatological conditions in the watershed is trend analysis which is used to examine the changes of a variable during time. Current study has been implemented in two parts. The first part of the study investigates the effect of rainfall changes on Darakeh river flow rate between 1989- 2012. To do this, monthly recorded data of rainfall from Haft Howz station (on Darakeh river) and methods such as graphical Mann-Kendall and linear regression tests were used. In addition, rainfall and river discharge anomalies were examined during the 24-year period. The results indicates that rainfall time series in Darakeh watershed has a positive and rising trend, though this trend is not significant. Also river flow rate increases with a slight slope during the studied time period and doesn’t show a significant trend. Totally it can be concluded that except for some particular time periods, increase and decrease in the amount of rainfall and river flow rate has not been concordant. The second part predicts the future rainfall in the catchment using MRI-CGCM2.3.2a under A1B emission scenario for three time horizons (2030, 2060, and 2090). The overall results are representative of reduction in rainfall in Darake river basin in the future. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Rainfall prediction, river flow rate, Mann-Kendall, linear regression, climate model | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
منابع [1] Ashofteh Parisa Sadat, Massah Bavani AR, The effect of climate change uncertainty on temperature and rainfall in Aydoghmoush watershed during 2040-2069, Journal of Knowledge of Water and Soil, 2009, 1/19(2): 85-98 [in Persian].
[2] IPCC, “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis”, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, and G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley(eds.)]. 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
[3] Ebrahimi H., Kordavai P., A study of climate change in Anzali International Wetland through Mann-Kendall method, Journal of Echo-biology of Wetlands, Islamic Azad University of Ahvaz, 2014, 6(12): 59-72 [in Persian].
[4] Jahanbakhsh Asl S., Khorshid Doust AM., Aali Nejad MH., Pour Asghar F., The effect of climate change on Temperature and rainfall considering uncertainty of models and emission scenarios (Case Study: Shahr-Chai watershed in Oroumieh), Hydrogeomorphology,2016, 7:107-122 [in Persian].
[5] Baba’eeyan I., Zarghami M., Kouhi M., Baba’eeyan A., Karimiyan M., Modirian R., Investigating the behavior of water resources in Ghara-Ghoum catchment under climate change condition (Case Study: Dargaz sub-basin), Journal of Water and Soil (Agricultural science and industry), 2013, 27(5): 907-918 [in Persian].
[6] Modarresi F., Araghi Nejad Sh., Ebrahimi K., Khalghi M., Regional investigating of climate change using statistical tests (Case study: Gorganroud-Gharasou watershed, Journal of Water and Soil, 2010, 24(3):476-489 [in Persian].
[7] Karl TR., Nicholls N., Gregory J., The coming climate. Scientific American, 1997, 276(5), 78-83.
[8] Zhang X., Vincent LA., Hogg WD., Niitsoo A., Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmospheric Ocean, 2000, 38: 395-429.
[9] Akinremi OO., McGinn SM., Cutforth HW., Seasonal and Spatial Patterns of Rainfall Trends on the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Climate, 2001, 14(9): 2177-2182.
[10] Katiraee Boroujerdi P., Hejam S., Iran Nejad P., Exemining the trend of rainfall changes in Iran during 1960-2001, PhD thesis of Meteorology, 2005, Islamic Azad University (Science AND Research Unit) [in Persian].
[11] Wang YQ., Zhou L., Observed trends in extreme precipitation events in China during 61-2001 and the associated changes in large-scale circulation. Geophys Res. 2005, Lett. 32:L09707.
[12] Hejam S., Khoshkhou Y., Shamseddin Vandi R., Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall changes of some selected stations in central catchment of Iran using nonparametric methods, Journal of Geographic researches, 2008, 40(64):157-168 [in Persian].
[13] Pal I., and Al-Tabbaa A., Assessing seasonal precipitation trends in India using parametric and nonparametric statistical techniques, Theor. Appl. Climatol, 2011, 103:1-11.
[14] Regional council of Oroumieh lake watershed management, investigating the trend of meteorological and hydrologic variable in the catchment, Drought Risk Management Program of Oroumieh lake watershed, 2012, 3, 90 pages.
[15] Lettenmaier DP., Wood EF., Wallis JR., Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States 1948-1988. Journal of Climate, 1994, 7: 586-607.
[16] Burn H B., Elnur MAH., detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 225: 107-122.
[17] Rahbar A., and Mas’oudi M., Trend of runoff changes in Kordan watershed, Journal of Iranian Research of Range and Desert, 2009, 16(2):161-173 [in Persian].
[18] Kumar S., Merwade V., Stream flow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation, and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 374: 171-183.
[19] Zhao G., Hormann G., Fohrer N., Zhang Z., Zhai J., Stream flow trends and climate variability impacts in Poyang Lake Basin, China. Water Resource Management, 2010, 24:689-706.
[20] Ezzati S., Panahi M., Misaghi F., Ojaghlou H., Investigating the trend of runoff changes in Ghezel-Ozan River through Mann-Kendall test, the 2nd national conference on applicable researches in agricultural research, 2014, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran [in Persian].
[21] Salami A., Mohammed A., Abdulmalik Z., Olanlokun O., Trend Analysis of Hydro-meteorological Variables using the Mann-Kendall Trend Test: Application to the Niger River and the Benue Sub-Basins in Nigeria. International Journal of Technology, 2014, 5(2): 100-110.
[22] Ahmadi Sharaf E., Tajrishy M., Alamdari N., Integrating flood hazard into site selection of detention basins using spatial multi-criteria decision-making, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2015, 59(8): 1-21.
[23] Google Maps website: available online at: www.maps.google.com
[24] Alizadeh, A., Principles of Applied Hydrology, 14th edition, University of Imam Reza (Peace be upon him), Mah’had, Iran, 2002, 735 pages.
[25] Mann HB., Nonparametric tests against trends Econometrica, 1945, 13: 245-259.
[26] Kendall MG., Rank correlation methods, Charles Griffin, London, 1975.
[27] Khalili A., Bazr Afshan J., Trend analysis of annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation changes in five old stations of Iran during previous 116 years, Journal of Desert, 2004, 9(1):25-33 [in Persian].
[28] Serrano A., Mateos V.L., Garcia JA., Trend Analysis of Monthly Precipitation Over the Iberian Peninsula for the Period 1921-1995. Phys. Chem. EARTH(B), 1999, 24(1-2):85-90.
[29] Khosh’hal Dastjerdi J., Ghavidel Rahimi Y., Application of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test in estimating temperature changes (Case study: Isfahan), Journal of Geographic Space, 2008, 8(22): 21-38 [in Persian].
[30] Arabi Yazdi A., Sanaee Nejad Seyyed Hossein, Banayan M., Estimation of annual temperature and rainfall anomalies in north-eastern part of Iran and its influence on performance of rain-fed wheat production, Iran’s Journal of Irrigation and drainage, 2013, 4(7):554-558 [in Persian].
[31] Gibbs WJ., Maher JV., Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Bureau of Meteorology, 1967, Bulletin No. 48, Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne.
[32] IPCC-TGCIA, 1999: Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Version 1. Prepared by Carter, T.R., M. Hulme, and M. Lal, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment, 69pp. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,415 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 838 |
||