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ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیک (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز بازفت صمصامی) | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 8، دوره 4، شماره 1، فروردین 1396، صفحه 89-102 اصل مقاله (856.65 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2017.60889 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| نوید دهقانی1؛ هدی قاسمیه* 2؛ سیدجواد ساداتی نژاد3؛ خلیل قربانی4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری دانشگاه کاشان | ||
| 2استادیار، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان | ||
| 3دانشیار، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 4دانشیار، دانشکدۀ مهندسی آب و خاک، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| افزایش گازهای گلخانهای در چند دهۀ اخیر و افزایش دمای ناشی از آن، سبب بر‌هم‌خوردن تعادل سیستم اقلیمی کرۀ زمین شده و تغییرات اقلیمی گستردهای را در اغلب نواحی کرۀ زمین به‌وجود آورده است. سیاستهای راهبردی توسعه در این منطقه، بهدلیل نیاز به آب در منطقۀ مرکزی از یکسو و محدودیتهای منابع آب از سوی دیگر، با چالشی بزرگ روبه‌رو شده است. در این پژوهش، ابتدا مدل بارش‌ـ رواناب WetSpa برای حوضۀ آبخیز بازفت صمصامی بهعنوان یکی از زیرحوضههای مهم حوضۀ آبخیز کارون واسنجی شد. سپس مقادیر دما و بارش برای دورۀ آتی براساس سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم با خروجیهای مدل چرخش عمومی جوّ HadCM3 برای سه سناریوی A1B، A2 و B1، با استفاده از مدل WG–LARS ریزمقیاس شدند. آنگاه به‌منظور شبیهسازی رواناب حوضه، دادهها به مدل WetSpa معرفی شد. در نهایت نتایج، کارایی مدل WG– LARS در برآورد باران و دما را تأیید کرد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد رواناب در دورۀ آماری 2011ـ 2040 و دورۀ آماری 2071ـ 2100 نسبت به دورۀ مشاهداتی در هر سه سناریو بهترتیب به‌میزان متوسط 86/8 و 83/4 درصد افزایش پیدا کرده و در دورۀ آماری 2041ـ 2070 به‌میزان متوسط 25/7 درصد کاهش یافته است. این موضوع، نشاندهندۀ تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب در دورۀ آیندۀ میانی در حوضۀ آبخیز مطالعاتی است. بنابراین، با توجه به نتایج بهدستآمده، اتخاذ سیاستهای برنامهریزی به‌منظور سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم برای حوضۀ آبخیز بازفت صمصامی ضرورت دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ حوضۀ آبخیز بازفت صمصامی؛ سناریو؛ مدلسازی هیدرولوژیک (WetSpa)؛ LARS-WG | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Evaluating the impact of climate change on runoff using hydrological model (Case study: Bazoft-Samsami Watershed) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Navid Dehghani1؛ Hoda Ghasemieh2؛ Seyed Javad Sadatinejad3؛ Khalil Ghorbani4 | ||
| 1. PhD Student of Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Iran | ||
| 2University of Kashan, Iran 2. Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, | ||
| 3Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4Faculty of Water and Soil Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Increasing greenhouse gases in recent decades and increasing its resulting temperature has causes the imbalance of the Earth’s climate system and widespread climate changes in most regions of Earth planet. Development strategic policy in this area has been forced with a big challenge because of the need for water in the central region on the one hand and water resource constraints on the other hand. In this study, first, WetSpa rainfall-runoff model was calibrated for Bazoft-Samsami watershed as one of the important sub-basins of Karun basin. Then, values of temperature and precipitation for future period were downscaled based on climate change scenarios with atmospheric general circulation model outputs (HadCM3) for three scenarios of A1B, A2 and B2 using LARS-WG model. Then, to simulate the basin runoff, data were introduced to WetSpa model. The results verified the performance of LARS-WG model in estimating rain and temperature. Also, the results showed that runoff in statistical periods of 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 compared with observation period in all three scenarios has increased %8.86 and %4.83, respectively, and has decreased in 2041-2070 to the amount of %7.25. This subject indicates the impact of climate change on runoff in mid-term future period in studied watershed. So, considering the obtained results, the policy of programming in order to adapt to climate change is necessary in Bazoft-samsami watershed. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Cimate Change, Hydrological Modeling (WetSpa), LARS-WG, Scenario, Bazoft-Samsami Watershed | ||
| مراجع | ||
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