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ارائۀ مدل تحلیلی ارزیابی راهبردها با رویکرد آیندهپژوهانه در شرکت ملی نفت ایران | ||
مدیریت بازرگانی | ||
مقاله 11، دوره 8، شماره 4، 1395، صفحه 903-923 اصل مقاله (546.13 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jibm.2017.61305 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
فرزین مینو* 1؛ تهمینه شاوردی2؛ سید کاظم چاوشی3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری آینده پژوهی، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات اجتماعی جهاد دانشگاهی | ||
2عضو هیات علمی پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات اجتماعی جهاد دانشگاهی | ||
3عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه خوارزمی | ||
چکیده | ||
در حال حاضر اغلب سازمانهای بزرگ دارای سند برنامهریزی راهبردی هستند و از آن پیروی میکنند. بررسی و بازنگری راهبردهای سازمان بهصورت دورهای و بهویژه ارزیابی پابرجایی آنها با توجه به موقعیت و عدم قطعیتهای آتی از الزامات انکارناپذیر سازمانهای امروزی بهویژه با توجه به پویایی و تغییرات محیطی است. با توجه به اینکه مدلهای مرسوم ارزیابی راهبرد بیشتر بر حوزۀ ارزیابی هنگام اجرا یا پس از اجرا تمرکز دارند، تحقیق حاضر پس از بررسی و مطالعۀ روشهای موجود ارزیابی راهبرد بهویژه در حوزۀ پیش از اجرا نسبت به ارائۀ نوعی مدل تحلیلی، عملیاتی و کمی، برای ارزیابی راهبردهای سازمان در بستر آیندهپژوهی اقدام کرده است. بهمنظور اطمینان از قابلیت اجرای مدل در وضعیت واقعی، راهبردهای شرکت ملی نفت ایران بهکمک مدل پیشنهادی ارزیابی شد و نتایج آن بیانکنندۀ تناسب راهبردهای یادشده در پاسخ به عدم قطعیتهای آتی صنعت نفت است | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آیندهپژوهی؛ ارزیابی راهبرد؛ پابرجایی؛ تابآوری؛ عدم قطعیت | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
An analytical strategy assessment model based on futures study approach in National Iranian Oil Company | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Farzin Minoo1؛ | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Nowadays most of the large scale organizations have developed Strategies as a formal and critical document. Periodic assessment of strategy robustness and effeteness against the future uncertainties specifically in a dynamic and turbulent business environment is inevitable. Most of the traditional models mainly focused on the strategy assessment during or after strategy implementation. This paper proposes a practical, analytical and quantitative ex-ante strategy assessment model to evaluate the effectiveness of the formulated strategies in the context of futures study. In order to show the practically and usefulness of the proposed model an empirical study of the NIOC strategy is demonstrated. The results show the effectiveness of the NIOC strategies against future uncertainties. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
resilience, Robustness, Strategy assessment, uncertainty, Futures Study | ||
مراجع | ||
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