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ارزیابی وضعیت خشکسالی در حوضۀ آبخیز تمر (بالادست سد گلستان) با استفاده از شاخص‌های SPI و SPEI تحت شرایط اقلیمی حال و آینده | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 18، دوره 5، شماره 1، فروردین 1397، صفحه 215-228 اصل مقاله (1.01 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2018.239226.689 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| عبدالله پیرنیا1؛ محمد گلشن1؛ سمیرا بیگنه2؛ کریم سلیمانی* 3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری | ||
| 2دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد | ||
| 3استاد دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری | ||
| چکیده | ||
| خشکسالی از گستردهترین و مخربترین بلایای طبیعی است که با رخداد تغییر اقلیم پیچیدهتر میشود. برای فراهم‌کردن یک دید کلی از شرایط خشکسالی، شاخصهایی برای پایش آن به‌طور گسترده استفاده می‌شوند. در این مطالعه، برای ارزیابی وضعیت خشکسالی آیندۀ حوضۀ آبخیز تمر (بالادست سد گلستان)، ابتدا دادههای روزانۀ خروجی مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP 2.6 و RCP 8.5 با استفاده از مدل SDSM برای دورۀ 2020-2049، ریزمقیاس و پیشبینی شدند. در ادامه، با استفاده از دادههای پیشبینیشده و شاخص‌های خشکسالی SPI و SPEI، وضعیت خشکسالی در آینده بررسی شد. همچنین، آنالیز روند دادههای دما و بارندگی، با استفاده از آزمون ناپارامتریک من-کندال انجام گرفت. نتایج آنالیز روند بیان‌کنندۀ تغییرات ناچیز بارندگی و افزایش معنادار دما در بیشتر سریهای زمانی است. همچنین، عملکرد مدل SDSM برای پیشبینی دادههای دما و بارندگی بسیار خوب ارزیابی شد و خروجیهای آن نشان داد دما و بارندگی نسبت به زمان حال افزایش مییابند. نتایج شاخص SPI نشان داد در هر دو دورۀ پایه (1985ـ 2014) و آتی (2020-2049)، بیشترین خشکسالیها و ترسالیها به‌ترتیب در اواخر و نیمۀ ابتدایی دو دوره رخ دادهاند. از آنجا که در شاخص SPEI در مقایسه با شاخص SPI پارامترهای اقلیمی بیشتری علاوه بر بارندگی برای ارزیابی خشکسالی لحاظ میشود و با توجه به افزایش روند دما در دورۀ حال و آینده، میتوان گفت که نتایج شاخص SPEI، واقعیتر و منطقیتر از نتایج شاخص SPI است بهطوری که ارزیابی خشکسالی بر اساس شاخص SPEI، شرایط خشکسالی شدیدتری را نسبت به شاخص SPI نشان داد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| حوضۀ آبخیز تمر؛ خشکسالی؛ شاخص‌های SPI و SPEI؛ گزارش پنجم IPCC؛ مدل SDSM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating the drought characteristics of Tamar basin (upstream of Golestan Dam) using SPI and SPEI indices under current and future climate conditions | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Abdollah Pirnia1؛ Mohammad Golshan1؛ Samira Bigonah2؛ Karim Solaimani3 | ||
| 2Graduated in Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Yazd, Yazd, Iran | ||
| 3University Academic member | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| To predict climate change and its effect on drought future situation in Tamar Basin, first daily output data of CanESM2 model downscaled and predicted by SDSM model and also RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in the 2020-2049 period. Then, drought conditions evaluated by predicted data and SPI and SPEI indices in the future. Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation variables also carried out by Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The results of trend analysis showed that precipitation changes is negligible and increase of temperature in most time series is significant. The performance of SDSM model to predict temperature and precipitation data is also very suitable and its outputs showed that temperature and precipitation have increased rather than that in the baseline period. The results of SPI index indicated that in both the periods the most droughts and wets have occurred at the late and first half of the two periods respectively. Evaluation of drought by SPEI index showed more severe drought rather than SPI index and according to increase of temperature trend in the baseline period and also temperature increase in the future can say the results of SPEI index are more actual and logical than the results of SPI index. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Drought, SPI and SPEI indices, SDSM model, Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC, Tamar Basin | ||
| مراجع | ||
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