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بررسی آثار تغییر اقلیم تحت سناریوهای مختلف بر روی آب زیرزمینی دشت کرمان | ||
| محیط شناسی | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 43، شماره 4، اسفند 1396، صفحه 645-661 اصل مقاله (1.09 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jes.2018.244983.1007546 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فرشاد سلیمانی ساردو* 1؛ طیبه مصباح زاده2؛ ناصر برومند3؛ علی آذره1؛ الهام رفیعی1 | ||
| 1دانشگاه جیرفت | ||
| 2دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3دانشگاه باهنر کرمان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پپدیده تغییر اقلیم یکی از مهمترین چالش‌های زیست‌محیطی است که بر روی منابع پایه از جمله منابع آب زیرزمینی تاثیرات سویی دارد. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع در این پژوهش برای بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر روی آب زیرزمینی دشت کرمان از مدل اقلیمی LARS-WG و مدل آب زیرزمینی GMS استفاده گردید. سناریوهای انتشار اقلیمی A2، A1B و B1 از مدل HADCM3 در دوره زمانی طی سال‌های 1410- 1390مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و برای بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر افت آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از نرم افزار GMS سطح آب زیرزمینی برای دوره 1409-1391 پیش‌بینی گردید و اثر سناریوهای اقلیمی بر روی آن اعمال گردید. برای مدل‌سازی آب زیرزمینی، مهر 1381 به‌عنوان حالت پایدار به مدل معرفی گردید و مقادیر هدایت هیدرولیکی و تغذیه و شرایط مرزی براورد گردید. سپس مدل برای سال‌های 1381 تا 1392 برای شرایط ناپایدار اجرا گردید و میزان سطح آب زیرزمینی برای سال‌های 1393 تا 1409 تحت سناریوهای مختلف اقلیمی پیش‌بینی گردید. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که متوسط افت آب زیرزمینی در هر چهار سناریو به ترتیب برای سناریوهای اقلیمی A2، A1B و B1 در سناریوی اول (86/0-، 85/5- و 19/9-)، سناریوی دوم (26/9-، 36/9-و 49/9-)، سناریوی سوم (09/12-، 21/12-و 28/12-) | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| افت آب زیرزمینی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ سناریوهای اقلیمی؛ دشت کرمان | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Study of climate change effects under different scenarios on groundwater in Kerman Plain | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| farshad soleimani sardoo1؛ tayyebeh mesbahzadeh2؛ naser broomand3؛ Ali Azare1؛ elham rafii sardooii1 | ||
| 1university of jiroft | ||
| 2university of tehran | ||
| 3university of kerman | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has been increased by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and has negative impacts on base resources such as groundwater resources. Therefore, it is essential that research is conducted to understand the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the future period, to avoid the deterioration of the situation by proper management. Considering the importance of the subject in this study, the climatic model of LARS-WG and the GMS groundwater model were used to study the effects of climate change on groundwater under different scenarios in Kerman plain. In this regard, the climatic emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1 of HADCM3 model was investigated in the period of 2011-2030 and to study the effect of climate change on groundwater drop, groundwater level was predicted using GMS software for the period 2012-2030 and the effect of climatic scenarios was studied on it. In order to groundwater modeling, the height of water in the piezometers was introduced to the model as a steady state in October 2002 and the values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge and boundary conditions were estimated. Then, the model was run for unsteady conditions for 2002 to 2013, and the groundwater level was predicted under different climatic scenarios for 2014-2030. The results showed that the average of groundwater drop in all four scenarios was -0.86, -5.85 and -9.19 meters (the first scenario), -9.26, -9.36 and -9.49 meters (the second scenario), -12.09, -12.21 and -12.28 meters (the third scenario) and -15.43, 15.55 and -15.58 meters (the fourth scenario) for A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, respectivelyThe phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has been increased by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and has negative impacts on base resources such as groundwater resources. Therefore, it is essential that research is conducted to understand the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the future period, to avoid the deterioration of the situation by proper management. Considering the importance of the subject in this study, the climatic model of LARS-WG and the GMS groundwater model were used to study the effects of climate change on groundwater under different scenarios in Kerman plain. In this regard, the climatic emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1 of HADCM3 model was investigated in the period of 2011-2030 and to study the effect of climate change on groundwater drop, groundwater level was predicted using GMS software for the period 2012-2030 and the effect of climatic scenarios was studied on it. In order to groundwater modeling, the height of water in the piezometers was introduced to the model as a steady state in October 2002 and the values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge and boundary conditions were estimated. Then, the model was run for unsteady conditions for 2002 to 2013, and the groundwater level was predicted under different climatic scenarios for 2014-2030. The results showed that the average of groundwater drop in all four scenarios was -0.86, -5.85 and -9.19 meters (the first scenario), -9.26, -9.36 and -9.49 meters (the second scenario), -12.09, -12.21 and -12.28 meters (the third scenario) and -15.43, 15.55 and -15.58 meters (the fourth scenario) for A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, respectivelyThe phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has been increased by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and has negative impacts on base resources such as groundwater resources. Therefore, it is essential that research is conducted to understand the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the future period, to avoid the deterioration of the situation by proper management. Considering the importance of the subject in this study, the climatic model of LARS-WG and the GMS groundwater model were used to study the effects of climate change on groundwater under different scenarios in Kerman plain. In this regard, the climatic emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1 of HADCM3 model was investigated in the period of 2011-2030 and to study the effect of climate change on groundwater drop, groundwater level was predicted using GMS software for the period 2012-2030 and the effect of climatic scenarios was studied on it. In order to groundwater modeling, the height of water in the piezometers was introduced to the model as a steady state in October 2002 and the values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge and boundary conditions were estimated. Then, the model was run for unsteady conditions for 2002 to 2013, and the groundwater level was predicted under different climatic scenarios for 2014-2030. The results showed that the average of groundwater drop in all four scenarios was -0.86, -5.85 and -9.19 meters (the first scenario), -9.26, -9.36 and -9.49 meters (the second scenario), -12.09, -12.21 and -12.28 meters (the third scenario) and -15.43, 15.55 and -15.58 meters (the fourth scenario) for A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, respectivelyThe phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has been increased by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and has negative impacts on base resources such as groundwater resources. Therefore, it is essential that research is conducted to understand the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the future period, to avoid the deterioration of the situation by proper management. Considering the importance of the subject in this study, the climatic model of LARS-WG and the GMS groundwater model were used to study the effects of climate change on groundwater under different scenarios in Kerman plain. In this regard, the climatic emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1 of HADCM3 model was investigated in the period of 2011-2030 and to study the effect of climate change on groundwater drop, groundwater level was predicted using GMS software for the period 2012-2030 and the effect of climatic scenarios was studied on it. In order to groundwater modeling, the height of water in the piezometers was introduced to the model as a steady state in October 2002 and the values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge and boundary conditions were estimated. Then, the model was run for unsteady conditions for 2002 to 2013, and the groundwater level was predicted under different climatic scenarios for 2014-2030. The results showed that the average of groundwater drop in all four scenarios was -0.86, -5.85 and -9.19 meters (the first scenario), -9.26, -9.36 and -9.49 meters (the second scenario), -12.09, -12.21 and -12.28 meters (the third scenario) and -15.43, 15.55 and -15.58 meters (the fourth scenario) for A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Key words: Groundwater drop, climate change, Climate scenarios, Kerman Plain | ||
| مراجع | ||
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