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تعیین پیشرانهای توسعه گردشگری طبیعی و فرهنگی در سیستان با روش تجزیه و تحلیل ساختاری | ||
| نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی | ||
| مقاله 8، دوره 72، شماره 1، فروردین 1398، صفحه 97-111 اصل مقاله (782.65 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jne.2018.255673.1505 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| ملیحه عرفانی* 1؛ یاسر میرچراغخانی2 | ||
| 1گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران | ||
| 2گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران‏ | ||
| چکیده | ||
| جایگاه صنعت گردشگری در توسعه همه‌جانبه ازجمله توسعه اقتصادی برکسی پوشیده نیست. در این راستا استفاده از روش‌های آینده پژوهی ابزار مناسبی جهت پیش‌بینی آینده گردشگری و بنابراین جهت‌گیری اقدامات مدیریتی در حال حاضر هستند. مطالعه حاضر با هدف تعیین پیشرانهای توسعه در صنعت گردشگری به روش توصیفی- تحلیلی در منطقه سیستان انجام شد. به این منظور در ابتدا به روش میدانی، مرور منابع و طوفان فکری، 100 پیشران که وجودشان در منطقه مانع توسعه گردشگری است، شناسایی شد و در ادامه پیشران‌ها در پنج حوزه مرتب و در صورت لزوم، اصلاح و یا درهم ادغام شدند. پس‌ازآن به روش دلفی مهم‌ترین آنها انتخاب شد که شامل 55 پیشران در حوزه‌های زیرساختی- رفاهی، سیاسی، نهادی، اجتماعی و طبیعی است. مجدداً این پیشران‌ها با استفاده از تحلیل ساختاری جهت به دست آوردن پیشران‌هایی با بیشترین تأثیرگذاری و کمترین تأثیرپذیری غربال شدند. وضعیت پراکندگی پیشران‌ها در محورهای تأثیرپذیری و تأثیرگذاری در هر دو روش مستقیم و غیرمستقیم تحلیل ساختاری نشان داد که سیستم از پایداری برخوردار است. مهم‌ترین عوامل توسعه‌نیافتگی صنعت گردشگری در سیستان، عوامل سیاسی و نهادی به ترتیب با شش و چهار پیشران در روش مستقیم و پنج و دو پیشران در روش غیرمستقیم به‌دست‌آمد و مهم‌ترین پیشرانهای اثرگذار، برنامه‌ریزی ضعیف، فقدان برنامه‌ریزی بلندمدت و فقدان مدیریت یکپارچه بوده که به ترتیب 16/6، 98/5 و 36/5 درصد از کل امتیازات را به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. پیشران عدم سرمایه‌گذاری در منطقه نیز به‌عنوان پیشران وابسته شاخص جهت نشان‌دادن وضعیت گردشگری در منطقه شناسایی شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| توسعه گردشگری؛ تحلیل ساختاری؛ منطقه سیستان | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Determining drivers of natural and cultural tourism development by Structural Analysis in Sistan | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Malihe Erfani1؛ Yaser Mircherghkhani‎2 | ||
| 1Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Zabol, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Zabol | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| It is obvious that tourism industry affects comprehensive development including the economic development. In this regard, using futures studies are an appropriate tool for predicting the future of tourism and therefore the orientation of management practices at the present time. This study was conducted to find drivers of development natural and cultural tourism by descriptive- analytical method in Sistan region. For this purpose, at first, 100 drivers as a barrier to tourism development in the region were identified using the fieldwork, literature review, and brainstorm methods. Subsequently, drivers were arranged in five domains and, if necessary, corrected or merged. After that, the most important drivers were chosen using Delphi method which contains 55 variables in the infrastructural, political, institutional, social and natural domains. Again, these variables were screened using Structural Analysis to get influential drivers with high influence and low dependence capacity. The state of dispersion of variables in the dependence and influence axes showed that the system is stable in both direct and indirect methods of Structural Analysis. The political factor and then the institutional factor with six and four variables in the direct method and five and two variables in the indirect method were identified as the most important factors in the undeveloped tourism industry in Sistan respectively. Among the influential drivers, weak planning, lack of long-term planning, and lack of integrated management include 6.16, 5.98, and 5.36 percent of total values respectively, and were identified as the most influence drivers. The lack of investment in the region has also been identified as a key dependent driver to assess the tourism status in Sistan. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Tourism Development, Structural analysis, Sistan region | ||
| مراجع | ||
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