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پیشبینی تغییرات کاربری زمین و اولویت بندی مناطق ناپایدار زیست محیطی حوضه آبریز رودخانه هلیل‌رود | ||
| تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 50، شماره 2، تیر 1398، صفحه 231-248 اصل مقاله (1.07 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijaedr.2018.263283.668635 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| عباس میرزایی* 1؛ منصور زیبایی2؛ عبدالکریم اسماعیلی2؛ محمد بخشوده2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی ، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران | ||
| 2استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پیشبینی تغییر کاربری زمین میتواند اطلاعات مهمی را برای تصمیمسازی مدیریت زیست محیطی و برنامهریزی آینده مهیا سازد. اهداف اصلی این مطالعه ارزیابی تغییر کاربری زمین و پیشبینی تغییر برای سالهای 2030، 2042 و 2054 با استفاده از مدل زنجیره مارکف و اولویت بندی زیرحوضهها با بکارگیری فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی (FAHP) برای شناسایی مناطق ناپایدار زیست محیطی در آینده است. تغییرات کاربری زمین با استفاده از سنجش از راه دور و سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی در حوضه آبریز رودخانه هلیل رود بررسی شد. برای این منظور، از تصاویر لندست TM، ETM و OLI و الگوریتم طبقه بندی حداکثر راستنمایی برای سالهای 1994، 2006 و 2018 استفاده شد و پنج نوع کاربری زمین شامل مرتع متوسط، مرتع فقیر، زمین کشاورزی (زراعی-باغی)، پوشش آبی (شامل آب رودخانه، سد و تالاب) و سایر کاربریهای فاقد پوشش گیاهی (شامل رخنمون سنگی، کوه، خاک، مرتع بسیار فقیر و مناطق مسکونی) در حوضه مشخص شد. نتایج نشان داد که طی سالهای 2018-2054، مراتع متوسط، فقیر و پوشش آبی به زمینهای کشاورزی و فاقد پوشش گیاهی تغییر خواهند یافت، به گونهای که سهم پوشش مرتعی متوسط و فقیر به میزان 12/65 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. همچنین، نتایج حاصل از بکارگیری رهیافت FAHP نشان داد که زیرحوضههای رودبار-جنوب و قلعه گنج در 36 سال آینده با شدیدترین بحرانهای زیست محیطی روبرو خواهند شد. نهایتاً اینکه در سال 2054، شرایط کاربری زمین و زیست محیطی تمامی زیرحوضهها، بحرانی پیشبینی میشود. بنابراین، اعمال سیاستهایی (از جمله مدیریت منابع آب) در جهت تغییر در روند تخریب زیست محیطی سطح حوضه پیشنهاد می شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| سنجش از راه دور؛ سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی؛ زنجیره مارکف؛ فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی؛ کاربری زمین | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Land use Changes Prediction and Environmentally Unstable Areas Prioritization of Halil-Rud River Basin | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Abbas Mirzaei1؛ Mansour Zibaei2؛ Abdolkarim Esmaeili2؛ Mohammad Bakhshoodeh2 | ||
| 1PhD. Student, agricultural economics, Faculty of Agriculture, university of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran | ||
| 2Professor, Agricultural economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Land use change prediction can provide necessary input for decision-making of environmental management and the future planning. The aims of this study was assess the Land use change and to predict the change for 2030, 2042 and 2054 by Markov chain model and to prioritize sub-watersheds using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) in order to recognize and manage environmentally unstable areas in the future. Land use changes were examined applying Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) in Halil-Rud river basin. For this purpose, Landsat TM, ETM and OLI images and Maximum Likelihood (ML) classifier algorithm were used for 1994, 2006 and 2018 and five types of Land use including middle grassland, poor grassland, agriculture (cultivation-gardening), water coverage (including water of river, reservoir and wetland) and other non-vegetation uses (including rocky surface, mountain, soil, very poor grassland and settlement) were identified in the basin. Results showed that during 2018-2054, middle and poor grasslands and water coverage will change to agriculture and devoid of vegetation lands in such a way that the share of middle and poor grassland coverage will decrease by 65.12 percent. Also, finding of FAHP approach indicated that sub-watersheds of Roodbar-Jonub and Ghalehganj will face the most severe environmental crises over the next 36 years. Finally, Land use and environmental conditions are predicted critical for all the sub-watersheds in 2054. Therefore, it is very necessary to apply policies (including water resources management) to change the level basin environmental destruction process. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Remote sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS), Markov Chain, Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), Land Use | ||
| مراجع | ||
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