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اثر تغییر اقلیم بر مناطق عمده تولید گندم دیم در ایران | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 50، شماره 6، آبان 1398، صفحه 1293-1305 اصل مقاله (572.19 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2019.269808.668060 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مجتبی شکوهی1؛ سید حسین ثنائی نژاد* 2؛ محمد بنایان اول3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد مقدس، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران. | ||
| 3استاد گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییر اقلیم به همراه گرمایش جهانی منتج به افزایش وقوع پدیدههای نامطلوب آب و هوایی شده که میتواند سبب کاهش عملکرد محصول شده و امنیّت غذایی را به خطر اندازد. به منظور بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر خطرپذیری مناطق تولید عمده گندم دیم از لحاظ قرارگیری در معرض خطر وقوع پدیدههای نامطلوب، از 13 شاخص اقلیمی-کشاورزی که بر مبنای خروجی مجموعه مدلهای CMIP5 و سناریوهای RCP8.5 و RCP2.6 است، استفاده شد. برای رقم زودرس و دیررس در پایان قرن، احتمال وقوع تنشهای حرارتی در مرحله گلدهی و پرشدن دانه افزایش خواهد یافت، بهگونهای که این تنشها به پدیده غالب در تمام مناطق تبدیل خواهند شد. در تمام مناطق و در دوره پایه، احتمال وقوع حداقل یک پدیده نامطلوب برای رقم زودرس و دیررس به ترتیب بیش از 20 و 90 درصد انتظار میرود و این احتمال در آینده برای رقم زودرس و دیررس به ترتیب به بیش از 40 و 94 درصد افزایش مییابد. احتمال وقوع همزمان تنش حرارتی و رطوبتی در مرحله گلدهی در آینده نسبت به دوره پایه، متناسب با کاهش تنش رطوبتی برای سناریوهای مختلف کاهش مییابد. در آینده مناطقی که با خطر وقوع حداقل دو پدیده نامطلوب مواجه هستند نسبت به مناطقی که با خطر وقوع حداقل یک پدیده مواجه هستند در کل افزایش بیشتری نسبت به دوره پایه خواهند داشت. با نزدیک شدن به پایان قرن، مناطق بیشتری در معرض خطر وقوع حداقل یک و دو پدیده نامطلوب قرار خواهند گرفت. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| امنیّت غذایی؛ سناریوهای RCP؛ شاخص‌های اگروکلیمایی؛ مدلهای CMIP5 | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Effect of Climate Change on Main Areas of Rainfed Wheat Production in Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mojtaba Shokouhi1؛ Seyed Hossein Sanaei-Nejad2؛ Mohammad Bannayan Aval3 | ||
| 1Ph.D Student of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. | ||
| 3Professor, Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Climate change and global warming has increased climatic unfavorable events that could reduce crop yields and endanger food security. 13 agro-climatic indices which are based on the outputs of CMIP5 models and RCP emission scenarios, were used to investigate the effect of climate change on areas at risk of adverse events. Occurrence probability of heat stresses will be increased during the flowering and grain-filling for early and late cultivars at the end of the century so that these stresses will become the dominant adverse events in all areas. The occurrence probability of at least one adverse event is more than 20 and 90 percent for early and late cultivars, respectively in all areas for the baseline conditions, and this probability is expected to increase by more than 40 and 94 percent for early and late cultivars, respectively under future climate scenarios. Proportional to the reduction of water stress for different emission scenarios, the probability of simultaneous occurrence of heat and water stress at the flowering stage will decrease in future as compared to the baseline. In future, areas where are at risk of at least two adverse event occurrences will increase further, as compare to those where are at risk of at least one adverse event occurrence. Toward the end of the century, more areas will be at risk of at least one and two adverse event occurrences. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Agro-climatic indices, CMIP5 models, Emission scenarios RCP, Food security | ||
| مراجع | ||
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