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برآورد رواناب با استفاده از مدل IHACRES بر اساس دادههای ماهوارهای CHIRPS و مدلهای CMIP5 (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبخیز گرگانرود-منطقه آققلا) | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 51، شماره 3، خرداد 1399، صفحه 659-671 اصل مقاله (998.66 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2019.289144.668316 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محمود احمدی* 1؛ عباسعلی داداشی رودباری2؛ آیدا دیرمجائی3 | ||
| 1دانشیار آب و هواشناسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، دانشکده علوم زمین، تهران | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی شهری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، دانشکده علوم زمین، تهران | ||
| 3کارشناس ارشد آب و هواشناسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، دانشکده علوم زمین، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| حوضه آبخیز یک سامانه هیدرولوژیکی پویا به لحاظ زمانی-مکانی است؛ بنابراین روند تبدیل بارش به رواناب نیز بسیار پیچیده است. مدلهای هیدرولوژیکی با توان بالقوه خود، ابزارهای کارآمدی بهویژه تحت شرایط تغییرات آب و هوایی محسوب میشوند. هدف از این مطالعه برآورد رواناب حوضه آبخیز گرگانرود-منطقه آققلا با استفاده از مدل نیمه توزیعی IHACRES است. به این منظور دادههای ایستگاه همدید گرگان، ایستگاه هیدرومتری آققلا، چهار مدل CanESM2، GFDL-CM3، HadGEM2 و MRI-CGCM3 از مجموعه مدلهای CMIP5 تحت روشهای ریزمقیاسنمایی آماری SDSM و MarkSimGCM و دادههای ماهوارهای بارش با توان تفکیک بالا CHIRPS (05/0 ×05/0 درجه قوسی) به‌کارگیری شدند. در ادامه از آمارههای R2، MBE و RMSE برای صحتسنجی و از آزمونهای ناپارامتریکMann-Kendall و Sen’s Slope برای ارزیابی روند و شیب روند دادهها استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل CanESM2 ریزگردانی شده با SDSM از عملکرد بالاتری نسبت به مدلهای دیگر برخوردار است. همچنین دادههای CHIRPS کارایی مناسبی را برای مطالعه بارش نشان دادهاند. رفتار آماری بلندمدت دبی در آققلا نشان داد فروردین و اردیبهشت بیشینه دبی را در بین ماههای مختلف سال دارا میباشند. مدل IHACRES هر چند که در پیشبینی دبیهای بیشینه نتوانسته دقت مناسبی را ارائه دهد اما در مجموع دارای دقت قابل قبولی است. بارش-رواناب در دوره مدلسازی شده آینده تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6 و RCP4.5 روند کاهشی و تحت سناریو RCP8.5 روند جزئی افزایشی خواهد داشت. همچنین انتظار میرود با افزایش بارشهای حدی رخدادهای سیلابی در منطقه نیز روندی افزایشی داشته باشند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بارش-رواناب؛ مدل های CMIP5؛ داده های ماهواره ای CHIRPS؛ مدل IHACRES؛ آققلا | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Runoff Estimation Using IHACRES Model Based on CHIRPS Satellite Data and CMIP5 Models (Case Study: Gorganroud Basin- Aq Qala Area) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mahmoud Ahmadi1؛ AbbasAli Dadashi Roudbari2؛ Aida Deyrmajai3 | ||
| 1Associate professor of Climatology Shahid Beheshti University The Faculty of Earth Sciences Tehran,Iran | ||
| 2Ph.D Student of Urban Climatology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3MSC of Climatology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The catchment is a temporal-spatial dynamic hydrologic system; therefore, the process of rainfall-runoff is complicated. The hydrological models with their potentials are efficient tools to estimate runoff, especially under the conditions of climate change. The purpose of this study is to estimate runoff of Gorganroud Basin, located in the Aq Qala region, using the IHACRES semi-distributive model. For this purpose, the data of Gorgan Synoptic and Aq Qala Hydrometry Stations, four models; CanESM2, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2, and MRI-CGCM3 from the CMIP5 models were applied under the SDSM and MarkSimGCM Statistical Downscaling methods. High-resolution CHIRPS precipitation data (0.05 × 0.05 arc degree) were also used. The statistical indices of R2, MBE, and RMSE were used for validation and non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope tests were used to evaluate the trend and slope trend of the data process. The results showed that the CanESM2 model downscaled with SDSM has a higher performance than the other models. CHIRPS data has also shown a good performance for rainfall studies. The long-term statistical behavior of discharge in Aq Qala showed that April and May have the maximum discharges among the other months. Although IHACRES model did not show an appropriate performance for prediction of maximum discharges, but in general, it's performance is acceptable. The rainfall-runoff trend during the proposed future period under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios will be reduced, whereas, it will be increased under the RCP8.5 scenario. Expected flood events in the region are also expected to show an increment trend with respect to the rainfall increment. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Rainfall-runoff, CMIP5 models, CHIRPS satellite data, IHACRES model, Aq Qala | ||
| مراجع | ||
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