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توسعۀ مدل عامل‌بنیان به منظور شبیه‌سازی رفتار بهره‌برداران بخش کشاورزی در مدیریت آب و اراضی | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 12، دوره 7، شماره 2، تیر 1399، صفحه 421-435 اصل مقاله (878.1 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2020.286216.1183 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سیده شیما پورعلی حسین1؛ مجید دلاور* 2؛ امینه قربانی3؛ پیتر فان درزاخ4؛ سعید مرید5؛ عنایت عباسی6 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3استادیار گروه سیستمهای مهندسی و خدمات، دانشکدۀ تکنولوژی، سیاست و مدیریت، دانشگاه تکنولوژی دلفت، دلفت، هلند | ||
| 4استاد گروه مدیریت آب، دانشکدۀ سیستمهای یکپارچۀ آب و حکمرانی، مؤسسۀ تحقیقات آب یونسکو، دلفت، هلند، استاد گروه مدیریت آب، دانشکدۀ مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تکنولوژی دلفت، دلفت، هلند | ||
| 5استاد گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| 6دانشیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| با توجه به تأثیرات اجتماعی و تفاوتهای موجود در بخشهای مختلف سیستم، در نظر نگرفتن ویژگیها و رفتارهای اجتماعی بهره‌برداران و توجه صرف به مدیریت همگن و بالا-پایین، رویکرد موفقی در مدیریت پایدار منابع آب نخواهد بود. مدلسازی عامل‌بنیان (Agent-Based Model)، رویکرد تقریباً نوینی است که به دلیل لحاظ کردن این تفاوتها، در زمینۀ مدیریت منابع آب و اراضی امکانات مفیدی را در تحلیل رفتارهای اجتماعی و مدیریت مؤثر و پایدار منابع ارائه میکند. در تحقیق حاضر، سعی شده است تا ویژگیهای رفتاری و محیطی عوامل تصمیمگیرنده در خصوص بهرهبرداری آب در بخش کشاورزی، با ارائۀ یک چارچوب مفهومی و توسعۀ مدل عامل‌بنیان شبیه‌سازی شود. به این منظور، برای تدوین مدل مفهومی و فراهم کردن امکان شبیه‌سازی و تحلیل رفتاری عوامل بهرهبردار (برای تعیین الگوی کشت، روش آبیاری و به تبع آن، میزان آب برداشتی در سه سطح دولت، سازمانی و کشاورزان)، از چارچوب تحلیل و توسعۀ نهادی MAIA استفاده شده است. بر این اساس، مدل عامل‌بنیان در یک حوضۀ پایلوت در کشور (حوضۀ آبخیز حبلهرود) کدنویسی، صحتسنجی، واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد. این مدل، در شبیه‌سازی وضعیت حوضه شامل تغییرات جریان آب سطحی، الگو و سطح اراضی زراعی و باغی و برداشت از منابع آب زیرزمینی در دورۀ تاریخی 1982ـ 2013 عملکرد مناسبی داشته است. درضمن، برای بررسی تأثیر سیاستهای حفاظتی دستگاههای دولتی بر شرایط حوضۀ آبخیز، سناریوهای دریافت و افزایش آببها در مدل تعریف شده و نتایج بررسی شد (کاهش برداشت آب بین 8 تا 32 میلیونمترمکعب صرفهجویی در برداشت آب تحت سناریوهای هزار تا دههزار ریال تعرفۀ آببها). | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تصمیمگیری؛ حوضۀ آبخیز حبلهرود؛ چارچوب MAIA؛ Agent-Based Model | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Development of an Agent-Based Model to simulate the behavior of Agricultural Users in Water and Land Management | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Seyedeh Shima Pooralihossein1؛ Majid Delavar2؛ Amineh Ghorbani3؛ Pieter Van Derzaag4؛ Saeed Morid5؛ Enayat Abbasi6 | ||
| 1PhD Student, Water Resources Engineering Group, Agriculture Dept., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Water Resources Engineering Group, Agriculture Dept., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Assistant Professor, Engineering Systems and Services Group, Technology, Policy and Management Dept., Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands | ||
| 4Professor, Water Management Group, Integrated Water Systems and Governance Dept., IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands Professor, Water Management Group, Civil Engineering Dept., Delft University of Technology, | ||
| 5Professor, Water Resources Engineering Group, Agriculture Dept., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 6Associate Professor, Agricultural Promotion and Education Group, Agriculture Dept., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Since there are various social factors and differences between different sectors of the system, ignoring water users’ attributes and their social behavior as well as considering only the homogeneous and up-down management scheme, would not be a successful approach in sustainable water management. Agent-Based Modeling is a relatively new approach that provides helpful tools to simulate social behaviors in sustainable water management. In this study, the agriculture sector’s water use is simulated using a conceptual framework and an Agent-Based Model to study the behavior of the decision-making agents. Therefore, to prepare the conceptual model and to simulate and analyze the social behavior of water users (in three decision levels of the Government, local organizations, and farmers) to decide on the cropping pattern, the irrigation method, and consequently the water withdrawal volume, the MAIA framework has been applied. In this regard, the Agent-Based Model for a pilot study area (the Hablehroud River basin, Iran) was coded, verified, calibrated, and validated. This model had a good performance in simulating the basin’s conditions, including cropping patterns and areas, and therefore the stream flow and groundwater use. Furthermore, to assess the impacts of the government’s water conservation policies on the hydrologic conditions, different scenarios of taking and increasing water costs were defined and modeled (one to ten thousand IRR per cm of water use led to a decrease in the total water withdrawals in the range of 8-32 million cubic meters per year). | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Agent-Based Model, MAIA framework, Decision-making, the Hablehroud River basin | ||
| مراجع | ||
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