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بررسی همبستگی بارشهای پاییزه حوضههای آبریز ایران با نمایههای دورپیوندی | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 51، شماره 8، آبان 1399، صفحه 1921-1936 اصل مقاله (1.39 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2020.294238.668434 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| جلیل هلالی* 1؛ الهام پیشداد2؛ معصومه علی دادی2؛ صدیقه لوک زاده3؛ ابراهیم اسعدی اسکویی4؛ رضا نوروز ولاشدی5 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 2گروه اقلیمشناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3شرکت مدیریت منابع آب ایران، تهران، ایران | ||
| 4پژوهشکده هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران، ایران | ||
| 5گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییرات بارش فصلی و سالانه تابع عوامل طبیعی و اقلیمی متعددی است که یکی از مهمترین آنها نمایههای دورپیوندی هستند. هدف مطالعه کنونی، ارزیابی و بررسی همبستگی نمایههای دورپیوندی با بارشهای پاییزه حوضههای آبریز 30 گانه ایران است. به این منظور، دادههای بارش فصل پاییز 717 ایستگاه سینوپتیک، اقلیمشناسی و بارانسنجی در یک دوره اقلیمی 28 ساله (1988-2015) بدون خلأ آماری و همگن انتخاب و همبستگی آنها با هشت نمایه دورپیوندی SOI، MEI، NAO، AO، NCP، C-SST، M-SST و P-SST با هشت تاخیر زمانی به دست آمد، سپس معناداری آنها بررسی و در نهایت تحلیل شدند. نتایج نشانگر همبستگی مثبت معنادار نمایههای MEI (1/29 تا 3/43 درصد ایستگاههای حوضههای غربی، جنوبی، شرقی و شمال شرقی) و نمایه NAO (4/29 درصد ایستگاههای حوضههای شمال غربی) بودند در حالی که دو نمایه SOI (در 3/23 تا 7/53 ایستگاههای حوضههای غربی، جنوبی، شرقی و شمال شرقی) و C-SST (3/23 ایستگاههای حوضههای جنوب شرقی) دارای همبستگی منفی و معنادار بودند. از نظر گام زمانی مشخص شد شاخصهای Oct-MEI (3/43 درصد ایستگاهها همبستگی مثبت) و Aug-SOI (7/53 درصد ایستگاهها همبستگی منفی) با بیشترین ایستگاههای مورد مطالعه همبستگی معنادار داشتند. بررسی حوضهای مشخص کرد فراوانی همبستگیهای معنادار در حوضههای آبریز مختلف بین 9/10 الی 36 درصد متغیر است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان میدهد که حدود 10 حوضه از حوضههای مورد مطالعه با بیش از 30 درصد نمایههای دورپیوندی همبستگی معنادار دارند که در هر حوضه آبریز متغیر است. بنابراین، نمایههای دورپیوندی را با گامهای زمانی مختلف میتوان به عنوان متغیرهای پیشبینی کننده بارش پاییزه در حوضههای آبریز ایران مورد استفاده قرار داد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| نمایههای دورپیوندی؛ بارش پاییزی؛ حوضههای آبریز ایران؛ دمای سطح دریا | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating the relationship between climate Teleconnection Indices and Autumnal Rainfall in Iran Watersheds | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Jalil Helali1؛ Elham Pishdad2؛ Masoumeh Alidadi2؛ Sedigheh Loukzadeh3؛ Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei4؛ Reza Norooz Valashedi5 | ||
| 1Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Iran Water Resources Management, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4Atmospheric Science & Meteorogical Research Center, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 5Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Seasonal and annual precipitation variations are subject to numerous natural and climatic factors such as climate teleconnection indices (CTIs). The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between CTIs and autumnal precipitation in 30 catchments of Iran. For this purpose, autumnal precipitation data were selected from 717 synoptic, climatological and rain gauge stations over a 28-year (1988–2015) climate period, and their correlation with eight CTIs including SOI, MEI, NAO, AO, NCP, C-SST, M-SST, and P-SST were obtained in eight-time lags. Finally, their correlation significance were investigated and analyzed. The results showed a significant positive correlation between the MEI (29.1% to 43.3% of the western, southern, eastern and northeast watershed stations) and the NAO (29.4% of the northwest basin stations), While the SOI (23.3-53.7 stations of the western, southern, eastern and northeast watersheds) and C-SST (23.3 of the southeast watershed stations) had significant negative correlation. In terms of the time step, it was found that the Oct-MEI (43.3% of the stations had a positive correlation) and Aug-SOI (53.7% of the stations had a negative correlation) had a significant correlation with most of the studied stations. From the watershed point of view, it was found that the frequency of significant correlations in different catchments varied between 10.9 and 36%. The results of this study show that about 10 watersheds have a significant correlation with more than 30% of CTIs which changes in each watershed. Consequently, the CTIs with different time steps can be used as predictor variables for autumn precipitation in Iran watersheds. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Climate Teleconnection Index, Autumnal Precipitation, Iran Watersheds, Sea Surface Temperature | ||
| مراجع | ||
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