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کاربرد مدلهای فصلی سری زمانی در پیشبینی جریان ماهانه ورودی به مخزن سدهای یامچی و سبلان در حوضه آبخیز قره‌سو، اردبیل | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 51، شماره 10، دی 1399، صفحه 2651-2663 اصل مقاله (1.4 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2020.305309.668658 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| امین کانونی* 1؛ سهیلا اورجی2 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران | ||
| 2گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پیشبینی حجم آب ذخیره شده در سدهای مخزنی در دورههای آتی، نقش مهمی در برنامهریزی و مدیریت بهرهبرداری بهینه از سامانههای منابع آب دارد. در این مطالعه، از روش تحلیل سریهای زمانی برای پیشبینی جریان ماهانه ورودی به سدهای مخزنی یامچی و سبلان در استان اردبیل استفاده شد. دادههای دبی جریان ماهانه اندازهگیری شده در ایستگاههای هیدرومتری واقع در محل ورود آب به سد، طی سالهای 94-1373 به مدت 21 سال تهیه و برای ساخت و آزمون مدل مناسب، به کار برده شد. پس از ایستا نمودن سری دادهها، با توجه به نمودارهای خودهمبسته (ACF) و خودهمبسته جزئی (PACF)، ساختارهای مدل فصلی تشخیص داده شدند و پس از مقایسه آنها با توجه به معیارهای آکائیکه (AIC)، آکائیکه اصلاح شده (AICC) و اطلاعات بیزی (BIC)، مدل مناسب برای هر یک از ایستگاههای هیدرومتری انتخاب شد. با برازش مدل به دادههای مشاهداتی، پارامترهای هر مدل تعیین و کفایت مدلهای منتخب نیز با آزمونهای تشخیصی بررسی گردید. نتایج نشان داد مدل ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 و ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 بهترتیب برای دادههای دبی ماهانه ایستگاه یامچی و اربابکندی، دارای کمترین مقدار شاخصهای آماری ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) و میانگین قدرمطلق خطا (MAE) بوده و دارای بیشترین ضریب تعیین است. مقدار این شاخصها در مدل مربوط به ایستگاه هیدرومتری یامچی بهترتیب برابر 04/1، 606/0 و 63/0 و برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری اربابکندی به ترتیب برابر 35/1، 8/0 و 74/0 بهدست آمد. لذا مدلهای منتخب، جریان ماهانه ورودی به مخزن سدهای یامچی و سبلان را با دقت خوبی پیشبینی میکند. همچنین مقایسه نتایج پیشبینی شده با دادههای مشاهداتی نشان داد در پیشبینی مقادیر حد بالای دبی، مدلهای منتخب از دقت بالایی برخوردار نیستند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بهرهبرداری مخزن؛ پیشبینی؛ جریان ورودی ماهانه؛ سریهای زمانی؛ مدل فصلی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Application of Seasonal Time Series Models for Prediction of Monthly Inflow to Yamchi and Sabalan Reservoirs in Qarasu Catchment, Ardabil | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Amin Kanooni1؛ Soheila Urji2 | ||
| 1Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili | ||
| 2Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Predicting volume of water stored in reservoirs in the future periods plays an important role in planning and managing the optimal use of water resources systems. In this study, time series analysis method was used to predict the monthly inflow to Yamchi and Sabalan reservoirs in Ardabil province. The monthly flow data measured at hydrometric stations, located at the dam's entrance for 21 years (1994 to 2015) were used to build and test an appropriate model. The structures of the seasonal models were identified according to the auto-correlation charts (ACF) and partial auto-correlation (PACF), and then the appropriate model for each hydrometric station was selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Akaike Information Criterion Correction (AICC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). By fiting the model to the observational data, the parameters of each model were determined and the adequacy of the selected models was also examined by diagnostic tests. The results showed that ARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 and ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 models, respectively for the monthly flow data of Yamchi and Arbabkandi stations have the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) and the highest determination coefficient. The values of these indicators in the model related to Yamchi hydrometric station were 1.04, 0.606 and 0.63, respectively, and for Arbabkandi hydrometric station were 1.35, 0.8 and 0.74, respectively. Therefore, the selected models accurately predict the monthly inflows to Yamchi and Sabalan reservoirs. Comparing the predicted results with the observational data showed that the selected models are not very accurate in predicting high discharge values. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Forecasting, Monthly Inflow, Reservoir operation, Seasonal model, time series | ||
| مراجع | ||
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