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تبیین سناریوهای مسکن گروه های آسیب پذیر شهری (مطالعه موردی: کلان شهر تهران) | ||
| پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
| مقاله 6، دوره 52، شماره 3، مهر 1399، صفحه 871-888 اصل مقاله (1.27 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2019.250120.1007623 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| صالح اسدی1؛ ابوالفضل مشکینی* 2؛ سیدعلی علوی2؛ صفر قائدرحمتی3 | ||
| 1دکترای جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، تهران، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس | ||
| 2دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، تهران، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس | ||
| 3دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، تهران، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در این پژوهش با بهرهگیری از روش سناریونگاری سعی در ترسیم آیندة منطقی و باورپذیر(سناریوها) برای مسکن اقشار آسیبپذیر شده است تا از این طریق به برنامهریزان کمک کرده باشد راهکارهای بهینه برای حل این مشکل ارائه دهند. بر همین اساس، پس از مرور مبانی نظری، مجموعة پیشرانهای اثرگذار در آیندة کلان‌شهر تهران شد و براساس روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع بررسی شد. براساس نتایج تحلیل اثرات متقاطع، چهار پیشران، وضعیت سیاست‌گذاری سرزمین، فقر شهری، درآمد سرانه، و رشد جمعیت جزو پیشرانهای کلیدی بودهاند. در این میان، نرخ رشد درآمد سرانه با توجه به اینکه بهطور مستقیم بر فقر شهری اثرگذاشته و به نوعی نمایانگر آن است در قالب همان فقر شهری بیان شده است. بر این اساس، چارچوبسناریوها را سه عدم قطعیت تشکیل میدهد: 1. وضعیت فقر شهری کلان‌شهر تهران؛ 2. نرخ رشد جمعیت کلان‌شهر تهران؛ 2. نگرشهای آمایش سرزمین. شیوة مدیریت سرزمین براساس سه پیشران و هشت سناریوی ممکن وجود دارد که سناریوی سوم و سناریوی هشتم بهدلیل تناقض بین وقوع همزمان تمرکززدایی از تهران و افزایش نرخ رشد جمعیت دارای ناسازگاری درونی بودند و حذف شدند. همچنین، سناریوی پنجم و هفتم بهدلیل وجود تناقض بین تداوم تمرکزگرایی در تهران و کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیت دارای ناسازگاری درونی بود و از فهرست سناریوها حذف شد. بدین ترتیب،چهار سناریو باقی ماند و داستان سناریوها برای هر کدام از سناریوها ارائه شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تحلیل اثرات متقاطع؛ سناریونگاری؛ کلان‌شهر تهران؛ مسکن اقشار آسیب پذیر | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Explaining housing scenarios for vulnerable urban groups Case Study: metropolis Tehran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Saleh Asadi1؛ abolfazl meshkini2؛ S. A. Alavi2؛ safarsafar ghaedrahmati3 | ||
| 1Tarbiat Modares University | ||
| 2Tarbiat Modares University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction A large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decision-making bodies in the housing sector. Therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for low-income groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. Developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. Methodology In this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for low-income housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. After reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the Tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the cross-impact analysis method. Results and discussion According to the results of cross-impact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. In the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. Conclusion Accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. The urban poverty status of the Tehran metropolis. 2. The population growth rate of the Tehran metropolis. 2. Attitudes of the land. Forms the land management style. Based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from Tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. Also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in Tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. Thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios. Introduction A large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decision-making bodies in the housing sector. Therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for low-income groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. Developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. Methodology In this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for low-income housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. After reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the Tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the cross-impact analysis method. Results and discussion According to the results of cross-impact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. In the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. Conclusion Accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. The urban poverty status of the Tehran metropolis. 2. The population growth rate of the Tehran metropolis. 2. Attitudes of the land. Forms the land management style. Based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from Tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. Also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in Tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. Thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios. Introduction A large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decision-making bodies in the housing sector. Therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for low-income groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. Developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. Methodology In this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for low-income housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. After reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the Tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the cross-impact analysis method. Results and discussion According to the results of cross-impact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. In the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. Conclusion Accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. The urban poverty status of the Tehran metropolis. 2. The population growth rate of the Tehran metropolis. 2. Attitudes of the land. Forms the land management style. Based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from Tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. Also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in Tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. Thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Housing, vulnerable segments, scenario, Tehran metropolis, cross-impact analysis | ||
| مراجع | ||
17. Abbott, J., 2001, An analysis of informal settlement upgrading and critique of existing methodological approaches, Habitat International, Vol. 26, No. 3, PP. 303-315. 18. Ara, P., 2002, Sustainable housing and the urban poor, International Journal of Urban Sustainable Development, Vol. 8, No. 1, PP. 1-9. 19. Benros, D. and Duarte, J.P., 2009, An integrated system for providing mass customized housing. Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal Automation in Construction, Vol. 18, PP. 310-320. 20. Gallen, R., 2010, Dual‐indexed mortgages in reforming socialist economies: Evaluating the risks and institutional requirements, Journal Housing Policy Debate, Vol.3, No. 3, PP. 855-876. 21. Katz, B. and Turner, M. A., 2008, Rethinking U.S Rental Housing Policy: Build on state & Local Innovation, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution.Accessed I8, 2011, at http://www.Brooking.edu 22. Oskar, J. and Krawczyk, E., 2005, Imagineering Cities: Creating Liveable Urban Futures in the 21st Century, Publication, Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology. 23. Quien, J. and Mendelson, E., 1996, Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 73, No. 5. 24. Ratcliffe, J. and Krawczyk, E., 2010, Imagineering Cities: Creating Liveable Urban Futures in the 21st Century, Publication, Futures Academy. 25. Richard, K. and Susan, M., 2010, The Housing Finance Revolution, 31st Economic Policy Symposium: Housing Finance and Monetary Policy, Wyoming. Walmsly, D.J., 1988, Urban Living, Longman Scientific & Technical, Newyork. | ||
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