پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 161 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,532 |
| تعداد مقالات | 70,502 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 124,118,631 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 97,224,684 |
ارزیابی عدم قطعیت شاخص‌های عملکرد سامانۀ مخزن تحت تأثیر تغییراقلیم (مطالعۀ موردی: سد نمرود) | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 18، دوره 8، شماره 2، تیر 1400، صفحه 563-584 اصل مقاله (1.51 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2021.318885.1467 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| آوین حکمی کرمانی1؛ حسین بابازاده* 2؛ جهانگیر پرهمت3؛ مهدی سرائی تبریزی4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتر‌ی گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2استاد گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3استاد پژوهشکدۀ حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 4استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییر اقلیم یکی از چالشهای اصلی در مدیریت و برنامهریزی منابع آب است. در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیتها میتواند تصویر دقیقتری از وضعیت سیستم ارائه دهد. در پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی عدم قطعیت شاخص‌های عملکرد مخزن سد نمرود واقع در حوضۀ حبله‌رود تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم در دورۀ آتی (2021ـ 2040) انجام شده است. به این منظور، با استفاده از خروجی مدل گردش عمومی EC-EARTH تحت دو سناریوی انتشار RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 و بهکارگیری مدل LARS-WG6 ریزمقیاس‌نمایی آماری برای دورۀ آتی انجام شد. رواناب حوضه در دورۀ آتی با مدل هیدرولوژیکی IHACRES برآورد شد. در ادامه، با در نظر گرفتن ورودیهای آیندۀ متغیرهای اقلیمی، تغییرات نیازها محاسبه شد. مدلسازی سامانۀ منابع آب با استفاده از مدل WEAP انجام شد. درنهایت و بر اساس تغییرات جریان رودخانه و با بهکارگیری روش مونتکارلو، عدم قطعیت عملکرد مخزن سد نمرود تحت شرایط حاضر و تغییر اقلیم ارزیابی شده و راهکارهای انطباقی کاهش تقاضا (تأمین 85 و 70 درصدی تقاضای کشاورزی) بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد بیشترین مقادیر شاخص پایداری مربوط به سناریوی کاهش 30 درصدی تقاضای کشاورزی تحت سناریوی انتشار RCP4.5 است. دامنۀ تغییرات نیز تحت سناریوی یادشده برای کشاورزی فیروزکوه و گرمسار 64/20 و 2/34 درصد کاهش مییابد، هرچند کاهش تقاضا بهتنهایی برای بهبود عملکرد سیستم کافی نیست. دامنۀ تغییرات شاخص پایداری نسبت به سایر شاخصها کمتر بود و بر همین اساس، قابلیت اطمینان بیشتری برای ارزیابی وضعیت سیستم را دارد. در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیتها اگرچه ارزیابی تأثیرگذاری سناریوهای سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم را پیچیدهتر میسازد، اما به افزایش اطمینانپذیری راهکارها کمک میکند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ سد نمرود؛ شاخص عملکرد؛ عدم قطعیت؛ WEAP | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Uncertainty Evaluation of Reservoir System Performance Indicators Under Climate Change (Case Study: Namroud Dam) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Avin Hakami Kermani1؛ Hossein Babazadeh2؛ Jahangir Porhemmat3؛ Mahdi Sarai Tabrizi4 | ||
| 1Department of Water Science and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Water Science and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3- | ||
| 4Department of Water Engineering and Sciences, SRBIAU, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Climate change is one of the major challenges for the management and planning of water resources. Considering the uncertainties can present a more accurate picture of the system state. The present paper evaluated the uncertainty of performance indicators in the reservoir of Namroud Dam, located in the Hablehroud Basin, under climate change in the upcoming period (2021-2040). For this purpose, statistical downscaling for the upcoming period was performed using the output of the EC-EARTH general circulation model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios and the LARS-WG6 model. The basin runoff in the upcoming period was estimated using the IHACRES hydrological model. In addition, the demand changes were calculated taking the future inputs of the climate variables into account. The water resources system was modeled using the WEAP model. Finally, based on the changes in river flow and using the Monte Carlo simulation, this study evaluated the performance uncertainty of the Namroud Dam reservoir under current conditions and climate change. Moreover, it investigated the adaptation strategies to reduce the demand (meeting 85% and 70% of the agricultural demand). The results showed the highest values of the stability index for the 30% reduction in agricultural demand under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The changes in agriculture in Firoozkooh and Garmsar under this scenario decreased by 20.64% and 34.2%, respectively, although the reduction in demand alone is not sufficient to improve system performance. Compared to other indicators, the stability index changes were more limited and thus more reliable for assessing the system state. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Namroud Dam, Climate Change, Uncertainty, WEAP, System Performance Indices | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1]. Mehta VK, Haden VR, Joyce BA, Purkey DR, Jackson LE. Irrigation demand and supply, given projections of climate and land-use change, in Yolo County, California. Agric Water Manag. 2013;117:70–82. [2]. Joyce BA, Mehta VK, Purkey DR, Dale LL, Hanemann M. Modifying agricultural water management to adapt to climate change in California’s central valley. Clim Change. 2011;109(S1):299–316. [3]. Teng J, Vaze J, Chiew FHS, Wang B, Perraud J-M. Estimating the relative uncertainties sourced from GCMs and hydrological models in modeling climate change impact on runoff. J Hydrometeorol. 2012;13(1):122–39. [4]. Peel MC, Srikanthan R, McMahon TA, Karoly DJ. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 2: Estimation and uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield [Internet]. 2014. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-4579-2014 [5]. de O. Vieira E, Sandoval-Solis S. Water resources sustainability index for a water-stressed basin in Brazil. J Hydrol Reg Stud. 2018;19:97–109. [6]. Li J, Gao Z, Guo Y, Zhang T, Ren P, Feng P. Water supply risk analysis of Panjiakou reservoir in Luanhe River basin of China and drought impacts under environmental change. Theor Appl Climatol. 2019;137(3–4):2393–408. [7]. Hernández-Bedolla J, Solera A, Paredes-Arquiola J, Pedro-Monzonís M, Andreu J, Sánchez-Quispe S. The assessment of sustainability indexes and climate change impacts on integrated water resource management. Water (Basel). 2017;9(3):213. [8]. Rocha J, Carvalho-Santos C, Diogo P, Beça P, Keizer JJ, Nunes JP. Impacts of climate change on reservoir water availability, quality and irrigation needs in a water scarce Mediterranean region (southern Portugal). Sci Total Environ. 2020;736(139477):139477. [9]. Ahmadi M, Haddad OB, Loáiciga HA. Adaptive reservoir operation rules under climatic change. Water Resour Manage. 2015;29(4):1247–66. [10]. Ehteram M, Mousavi SF, Karami H, Farzin S, Singh VP, Chau K-W, et al. Reservoir operation based on evolutionary algorithms and multi-criteria decision-making under climate change and uncertainty. J hydroinformatics. 2018;20(2):332–55. [11]. Ashofteh P-S, Rajaee T, Golfam P. Assessment of water resources development projects under conditions of climate change using efficiency indexes (EIs). Water Resour Manage. 2017;31(12):3723–44. [12]. Keteklahijani VK, Alimohammadi S, Fattahi E. Predicting changes in monthly streamflow to Karaj dam reservoir, Iran, in climate change condition and assessing its uncertainty. Ain Shams Eng J. 2019;10(4):669–79. [13]. Gholampour, A. Ashrafzadeh, A. Pirmoradian, N. Moussavi, S. Investigating the role of downscaling and reference evapotranspiration estimation method in analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 2018; 49(4): 841-852. doi: 10.22059/ijswr.2018.240855.667748. [Persian]. [14]. Salehpoor, J. Ashrafzadeh, A. Moussavi, S. Water Resources Allocation Management in the Hablehroud Basin Using a Combination of the SWAT and WEAP Models. Iran-Water Resources Research, 2018; 14(3): 239-253. [Persian] [15]. Razaghi, P. Babazadeh, H. Shourian, M. Development of multi-purpose reservoir operation hedging rule in water resources shortage conditions using MODSIM8.1. Journal of Soil and Water Resources Conservation, 2014; 3(2): 11-23. [Persian] [16]. Salehpoor, J. Ashrafzadeh, A. Moussavi, S. Technical Note: Investigating the effect of climate change on flow of the Hablehroud Basin. Watershed Engineering and Management, 2019; 11(4): 1140-1153. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2018.116258.1377. [Persian]. [17]. Report S. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team. Pachauri RK, Meyer LA, editors. [18]. Nury A, Alam M. Performance Study of Global Circulation Model HADCM3 Using SDSM for Temperature and Rainfall in North-Eastern Bangladesh. Journal of Scientific Research. 2013;6(1):87-96. [19]. Croke BFW, Andrews F, Jakeman AJ, Cuddy SM, Luddy A. IHACRES Classic Plus: A redesign of the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. Environ Model Softw. 2006;21(3):426–7. [20]. Thomas J, Β Fiering M. 12. Mathematical synthesis of streamflow sequences for the analysis of river basins by simulation. In: Design of Water-Resource Systems. Cambridge, MA and London, England: Harvard University Press; 1962. p. 459–93. [21]. Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M. Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Rome: FAO; 2004. [22]. Tennant DL. Instream flow regimens for fish, wildlife, recreation and related environmental resources. Fisheries. 1976;1(4):6–10. [23]. Hashimoto T, Stedinger JR, Loucks DP. Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resour Res. 1982;18(1):14–20. [24]. Zareabyaneh, H. GHobaeisoogh, M. Mosaedi, A. Drought Monitoring Based on Standardized Precipitation Evaoptranspiration Index (SPEI) Under the Effect of Climate Change. Water and Soil, 2015; 29(2): 374-392. doi: 10.22067/jsw.v0i0.36472. [Persian]. [25]. kamyar, A. Movahedi, S. Yazdanpanah, H. Projection of Minimum and Maximum Air Temperatures in Isfahan Province during 2050-2017. Journal of Climate Research, 2017; 1396(29): 37-54. [Persian] [26]. Houshyar, M. Sobhani, B. Hosseini, S. Future projection of Maximum Temperature in Urmia through Downscaling output of CanESM2 Model. Geography and Planning, 2018; 22(63): 305-325. [Persian]. [27]. Abbasian MS, Najafi MR, Abrishamchi A. Increasing risk of meteorological drought in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change: Introducing the precipitation–temperature deciles index. J Hydrol (Amst). 2021;592(125586):125586. [28]. Boonwichai S, Shrestha S, Babel MS, Weesakul S, Datta A. Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement, crop water productivity and rice yield in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. J Clean Prod. 2018;198:1157–64. [29]. Kalbali E, Ziaee S, Najafabadi MM, Zakerinia M. Approaches to adapting to impacts of climate change in northern Iran: The application of a Hydrogy-Economics model. J Clean Prod. 2021;280(124067):124067. [30]. Mehrazar, A. Massah Bavani, A. Mashal, M. Rahimikhoob, H. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture of the Hashtgerd Plain with Emphasis of AR5 Models Uncertainty. Irrigation Sciences and Engineering, 2018; 41(3): 45-59. [Persian]. [31]. Heydari Tasheh Kaboud S, Khoshkhoo Y, University of Kurdistan. Projection and prediction of the annual and seasonal future reference evapotranspiration time scales in the West of Iran under RCP emission scenarios. researches in Geographical Sciences. 2019;19(53):157–76. [32]. Afruzi, A. Zare Abyaneh, H. Investigation of Agricultural Water Demand under the Combination Scenarios of Climate Change, Irrigation Efficiency Enhancement, Cropping Pattern Changes, and the Development of Early-Maturing Cultivars: a Case Study of Hamedan-Bahar Plain. Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, 2020; 14(1): 61-75 [33]. Zhao G, Gao H, Kao S-C, Voisin N, Naz BS. A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity. J Hydrol (Amst). 2018;563:22–32. [34]. Ehsani N, Vörösmarty CJ, Fekete BM, Stakhiv EZ. Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk. J Hydrol (Amst). 2017;555:435–46. [35]. Naz BS, Kao S-C, Ashfaq M, Gao H, Rastogi D, Gangrade S. Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States. J Hydrol (Amst). 2018;556:359–70. [36]. Ahmadaali J, Barani G-A, Qaderi K, Hessari B. Analysis of the effects of water management strategies and climate change on the environmental and agricultural sustainability of Urmia lake basin, Iran. Water (Basel). 2018;10(2):160. [37]. Adeloye AJ, Dau QV. Hedging as an | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 584 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 354 |
||