پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 158 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,230 |
| تعداد مقالات | 67,764 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 115,177,672 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 89,925,733 |
تقابل روسیه با آمریکا در منطقۀ غرب آسیا و شمال آفریقا برپایۀ آیین جنگ هیبریدی گراسیمف (مطالعة موردی: سوریه و لیبی) | ||
| مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
| دوره 14، شماره 1، شهریور 1400، صفحه 51-73 اصل مقاله (239.2 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2021.313816.449960 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محمدصادق کوشکی1؛ تورج افشاری بدرلو2؛ احمد بروایه* 3 | ||
| 1استادیار مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| آیین جنگ هیبریدی گراسیمف که اولین بار والری گراسیمف مطرح کرد، مبتنی بر دوراندیشی است. این آیین بر استفادۀ ترکیبی از مؤلفه‌های قدرت سخت و نرم تأکید می‌کند و به رهبران روسیه گوشزد می‌کند که به‌علت تغییر ماهیت تهدیدها، بهره‌مندی از تاکتیک‌های جنگ ترکیبی، برای ورود روسیه به عرصۀ نبردهای مدرن و مقابلۀ مؤثر با دشمنان این کشور اجتناب‌ناپذیر است. از سوی دیگر، منطقۀ غرب آسیا و شمال‌آفریقا نیز به‌دلیل‌های متعدد از دوران اتحاد شوروی، در نظر مسکو از اهمیت و جایگاه خاصی برخوردار بوده است، بنابراین کرملین آیین جنگ هیبریدی گراسیمف را ابزاری کارامد برای مقابله با نفوذ و قدرت آمریکا و بازگرداندن جایگاه خود در این منطقه یافت. به باور روس‌ها گسترش دامنۀ حضور و نفوذ آنان در منطقۀ راهبردی غرب آسیا و شمال آفریقا می‌تواند عنصری اثرگذار در راستای دستیابی آنان به جایگاه یک قدرت بزرگ جهانی باشد. چگونگی بهره‌مندی روسیه از اصول جنگ هیبریدی گراسیمف با هدف تقابل با آمریکا در منطقۀ غرب آسیا و شمال آفریقا پرسشی است که مطرح می‌شود. یافته‌های این نوشتار به شیوۀ اسنادی و کتابخانه‌ای و روش پردازش مبتنی بر توصیف داده‌ها و تبیین آن‌ها براساس چارچوب مفهومی نوشتار، بیان می‌کند که روسیه بنابر آموزه‌های آیین گراسیمف، در پی به‌کاربستن آمیخته‌ای از مؤلفه‌های قدرت سخت و نرم برای مقابله با نفوذ آمریکا در غرب آسیا و شمال آفریقا و در مقابل گسترش دامنۀ حضور و نفوذ خود در این منطقه است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آمریکا؛ جنگ هیبریدی؛ روسیه؛ شمال آفریقا؛ غرب آسیا؛ گراسیمف | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Russia–US Confrontation in West Asia and North Africa Based on Gerasimov Hybrid Warfare Doctrine: a Case Study of Syria and Libya | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mohammad Sadegh Kushki1؛ Tooraj Afshari Badrloo2؛ Ahmad Borwayeh3 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor of Regional Studies, University of Tehran | ||
| 2M.A. in Regional Studies, University of Tehran | ||
| 3Ph.D. Student of Regional Studies, University of Tehran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Valery Gerasimov introduced his Hybrid Warfare Doctrine in 2013. In his doctrine, Gerasimov emphasized a combined use of hard and soft power elements (components) because he believed that Russia needs a new approach to counter new threats effectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Hybrid Warfare Doctrine is based on foresight and is formulated to prepare Russia to have a strong presence in modern battles. In addition to emphasizing a combination of hard and soft power, this doctrine attaches greater importance to the soft power and a redesigning of Russia’s defensive policies and troops; it also underscores deep concentration on military and defensive research projects. Thus, Gerasimov challenged the mainstream Russian approaches to the military and asserted that political leaders required innovative ideas and initiative to deal with future security/safety challenges. This doctrine gained popularity for the first time during the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian War, catching the attention of political, military, and security analysts. Russians applied Gerasimov Doctrine on a large scale in Ukraine for the first time and succeeded in annexing the Crimean Peninsula to their federation using an effective combination of soft and hard power. This was a great achievement for Russians because the Crimean Peninsula had a special strategic place on the Black Sea and could give Russians easy, rapid access to the eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea, the Balkans, West Asia, and North Africa. As a result, Russians could gain numerous military, economic, and commercial advantages. Afterward, Russians started to get the most and realize their goals in West Asia and North Africa by applying Gerasimov Doctrine principles widely. Kremlin has always had eyes on this region since the USSR; however, when the USSR dissolved, Moscow focused more on problems caused by the dissolution. Consequently, the US seized the moment (used Moscow’s passive policy in its favor) and expanded its sway over this strategically important region. Russia rekindled its interest in West Asia and North Africa when Vladimir Putin took office. Russians believed they could achieve their goals and protect their interests only if they had a stronger presence in the region. They saw this region as promising in terms of economy, military, politics, and security. But Moscow faced a major challenge on this path: the US, a formidable rival. Looking back to their success concerning Ukraine, Russians believed that Gerasimov Hybrid Warfare Doctrine was the best tool to achieve their goals. Therefore, when they decided to intervene in the Syrian Crisis on the pretext of inhibiting terrorist activities, not only did they employ hard power, but they also used hybrid warfare elements extensively. Their success in Ukraine and events such as the Islamic Awakening made them fully aware of the importance and efficacy of soft war. Russians seemed to aim for more than a war on terrorism; they also harbored the thought of impeding the US increasing influence in Syria and the entire region. Applying Gerasimov Hybrid Warfare Doctrine in Syria, Russians gained remarkable achievements; as a result, by applying hybrid warfare elements in Libya, they resolved to challenge the US unrivaled position in the region and restore Moscow to its former glory in this oil-rich country in North Africa. In line with this, the current study addressed how Russia has used Gerasimov Hybrid Warfare principles to confront the US in this region. The data were collected through desk research and then described and explained within the research conceptual framework; the results showed that following Gerasimov Doctrine, Russia is combining the elements of hard and soft power to limit the expansion of the US influence in Western Asia and North Africa and widen its sphere of influence in the region. Russians concluded that non-linear warfare elements can enable them to pursue their ambitious geopolitical and geo-strategic policies without confrontation with the US. Even though Russia is a military superpower and its nuclear arsenal can pre-empt and minimize armed conflicts with the US, Russians regard Gerasimov Doctrine as a safer and more cost-effective path to their goals. In sum, considering the achievements Russia gained by applying Gerasimov Doctrine in Ukraine, Syria, and Libya, it appears that it is expanding its capabilities in hybrid, non-linear warfare and intends to promote this type of warfare in other parts of the globe. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Gerasimov, Hybrid Warfare, North Africa, Russia, The United States, West Asia | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Africa and the Middle East: Beyond the Divides” (2020), Pomeps Studies, The Project on Middle East Political Science, Available at: http://www. pomeps.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 10/7/2020).
Al Makahleh, Shehab (2018), “The Arab View of Russian’s Role in the MENA: Changing Arab Perceptions of Russia, and the Implications for Us Policy”, in: Theodore Karasik and Stephen Blank (eds.), Russia in the Middle East, Washington, D.C.: The Jamestown, pp. 61-86.
Bagdonas, Azuolas (2012), “Russia’s Interests in the Syrian Conflict: Power, Prestige and Profit”, European Journal of Economic and Political Studies (EJEPS), Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 55-77.
Barmin, Yuri (2018), “Russia in the Middle East until 2024: from Hard Power to Sustainable Influence”, in: Theodore Karasik and Stephen Blank (eds.), Russia in the Middle East, Washington, D.C.: The Jamestown, pp. 338-366.
Bartles, Charles (2016), “Getting Gerasimov Right”, Available at: https://www. Community.apan.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 13/4/2020).
Blank, Stephen (a) (2018), “Russia’s Middle Eastern Position in 2025”, in: Theodore Karasik and Stephen Blank (eds.), Russia in the Middle East, Washington, D.C.: The Jamestown, pp. 367-413.
Blank, Stephen (b) (2018), “The Foundations of Russian Policy in the Middle East, in: Theodore Karasik and Stephen Blank (eds.), Russia in the Middle East, Washington, D.C.: The Jamestown, pp. 28-60.
Borshchevskaya, Anna (2018), “The Tactical Side of Russia’s Arms Sales to the Middle East”, in: Theodore Karasik and Stephen Blank (eds.), Russia in the Middle East, Washington, D.C.: The Jamestown, pp. 183-212.
Eronen, Pasi (2016), Russian Hybrid Warfare: How to Confront a New Challenge to the West, Washington, D.C.: FDD PRESS.
Estelle, Emily (2017), “A Strategy for Success in Libya”, Available at: https://www.dia.mil.pdf, (Accessed on: 3/5/2020).
Galeotti, Mrak (2018), “I’m Sorry for Creating the Gerasimov Doctrine”, Available at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com, (Accessed on: 2/5/2020).
Giles, Keir (2016), “Russia’s New Tools for Confronting the West Continuity and Innovation in Moscow’s Exercise of Power”, Available at: https://www. chathamhouse.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 19/5/2020).
Gvosdev, Nikolas (2019), “Russian Strategic Goals in the Middle East”, Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 20/5/2020).
Harr, Scott (2017), “Expanding Tolstoy and Shrinking Dostoyevsky, How Russian Actions in the Information Space are Inverting Doctrinal Paradigms of Warfare”, Available at: http://www.Armyupress.army. mil.pdf, (Accessed on: 2/6/2020).
Hodge, Nathan and Others (2016), “Behind Russia’s Cyber Strategy”, Available at: https://www.wsj.com, (Accessed on: 6/6/2020).
Ismael, Tareq and Glen Perry (2014), The International Relation of the Contemporary Middle East, London and New York: Routledge (Taylor and Francis Group).
Janiczek, Rudolph (2002), The New Maskirovka: Countering US Rapid Decisive Operations in the 21st Century, Thesis in Department of Defense or the U. S. Marine Corps, School of Advanced Warfighting.
Jensen, Donald (2018), “Russia in the Middle East: a New Front in the Information War?”, in: Theodore Karasik and Stephen Blank (eds.), Russia in the Middle East, Washington, D.C.: The Jamestown, pp. 265-289.
Kadri, Hichem and Elmira Akhmetova (2020), “When Politics Allied with Religion: Russia’s New Strategy to Dominate the Middle East under the Pretext of Fighting Terrorism”, Journal of Political Science, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 185-203.
Katz, Mark (2019), “Not Getting Any Easier: Putin’s Middle East Balancing Act”, Available at: https://www.ieres.elliott.gwu.edu.pdf, (Accessed on: 9/6/2020).
Kiani, Davood and Zohreh Khanmohammadi (2017), “Russia’s Middle East Policy 2011-2015 (with an Emphasis on Arab Countries)”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 341-358 [in Persian].
Klein, Margarete (2015), “Russia’s New Military Doctrine”, Available at: https://www.swp-berlin.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 12/6/2020).
Kofman, Michael (2019), “Russian Combat Operations in Syria and Their Impact on the Force”, Available at: https://www.ieres.elliott.gwu.edu.pdf, (Accessed on: 9/6/2020).
MacQueen, Benjamin (2018), An Introduction to Middle East Politics, Los Angeles, London, New Delhi, Washington, D.C. and Melbourne: SAGE.
Malm, Dustin (2019), Perspectives on Russian Foreign Policy: the Gerasimov Doctrine and War by Other Means, Thesis Submitted to John Hopkins University.
Mammadov, Rauf (2018), “Russia in the Middle East: Energy Forever?”, in: Theodore Karasik and Stephen Blank (eds.), Russia in the Middle East, Washington, D.C.: The Jamestown, pp. 212-239.
Mckew, Mollyk (2017), “The Gerasimov Doctrine”, Available at: http://www. Politico.com, (Accessed on: 10/6/2020).
Mulroy, Mick and Eric Oehlerich (2020), “Russia’s Middle East: You Probe with Bayonets. If you Find Mush, you Proceed ...”, Available at: https://www. mei.edu.pdf, (Accessed on: 11/3/2020).
Omelicheva, Maria (2019), “Russia in Syria: Reshaping the Global Order or Fighting Terrorism?”, Available at: https://www.uu.diva-portal.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 18/6/2020).
Overland, Indra (2015), “Future Petroleum Geopolitics: Consequences of Climate Policy and Unconventional Oil and Gas”, in: Jinyue Yan (ed.), Clean Energy Systems, New Jersey: Wiley, pp. 3517-3544.
Parker, John (2019), Between Russia and Iran: Room to Pursue American Interests in Syria, Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press.
Rashidi, Ahmad (2019), “Problematic Nature of Russia’s Soft Power Discourse”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 74-95 [in Persian].
Renz, Bettina and Hanna Smith (2016), “Russia and Hybrid Warfare – Going beyond the Label”, Available at: http://www.stratcomcoe.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 31/5/2020).
Roberts, James (2015), “Maskirovka 2.0: Hybrid Threat, Hybrid Response”, Available at: http://www.apps.dtic.mil.pdf, (Accessed on: 14/4/2020).
Rumer, Eugene (2019), “The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) Doctrine in Action”, Available at: http://www.carnegieendowment.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 19/4/2020).
“Russia’s Hostile Measures” (2020), Available at: http://www.rand.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 13/7/2020).
Samoudi Pilevar, Alireza (2019), “Areas of Conflict between Russia and the West during Putin’s Fourth Term of Presidency”, Central Asia and the Caucasus Studies, Vol. 25, No. 105, pp. 39-68 [in Persian].
Shamil Mohammed, Abdul-Khaliq (2020), “The Russian-American Competition in the Middle East after 2011: Future Scenes”, Journal of Al-Frahedis Arts, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 542-562.
Stepanova, Ekaterina (2018), “Russia’s Approach to the Conflict in Libya, the East-West Dimension and the Role of the OSCE”, Available at: https://www. researchgate.net.pdf, (Accessed on: 14/5/2020).
Stewart, Vincent (2017), “Russia Military Power (Building a Military to Support Great Power Aspirations)”, Available at: https://www.dia.mil.pdf, (Accessed on: 25/4/2020).
Sukhankin, Sergey (2018), “Continuing War by Other Means: the Case of Wagner, Russia’s Premier Private Military Company in the Middle East”, in: Theodore Karasik and Stephen Blank (eds.), Russia in the Middle East, Washington, D.C.: The Jamestown, pp. 290-318.
Takhshid, Mohammad Reza and Morteza Shoja (2019), “Maintaining the Sphere of Influence: an Explanation of Russia’s Foreign Policy on Syria Crisis”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 309-325 [in Persian].
Valenta, Leni Friedman (2020), “How Putin is Winning in Syria”, Available at: http:// www.meforum.org.pdf, (Accessed on: 11/6/2020).
Vasiliev, Alexey (2018), Russia’s Middle East Policy: from Lenin to Putin, London and New York: Routledge (Taylor and Francis Group). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 712 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 499 |
||