پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 161 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,532 |
| تعداد مقالات | 70,504 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 124,121,881 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 97,229,535 |
روابط ترکیه و روسیه در جهان پساغربی؛ از رقابت ژئوپلیتیکی تا مشارکت راهبردی؟ | ||
| مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
| دوره 14، شماره 1، شهریور 1400، صفحه 353-376 اصل مقاله (308.22 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2021.312904.449958 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| ولی گل محمدی* | ||
| استادیار روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در این نوشتار به‌دنبال درک نظام‌مند ماهیت مشارکت راهبردی ترکیه و روسیه در شرایط گذار نظام بین‌الملل هستیم. برخلاف بسیاری از دیدگاه‌های غالب که از چرخش ژئوپلیتیکی سیاست خارجی ترکیه به اوراسیا و پدیدارشدن روابط راهبردی میان ترکیه و روسیه سخن می‌گویند، در این نوشتار چنین روندی را نه چرخشی محوری بلکه واکنشی پویا به گذار در نظام بین‌الملل، پویایی‌های سیاست داخلی و تحول‌های ژئوپلیتیکی محیط پیرامونی دو قدرت نوپدید اوراسیایی می‌دانیم. با بهره‌گیری از چارچوب مفهومی «مشارکت راهبردی» به مطالعۀ محدودیت‌های راهبردی در شکل‌دهی به مشارکت راهبردی پایدار میان دو قدرت اوراسیایی تجدیدنظرطلب در یک محیط جدید بین‌المللی و منطقه‌ای می‌پردازیم. در پاسخ به این پزسش که آیا ترکیه و روسیه می‌توانند به شریکان راهبردی یکدیگر تبدیل شوند؟ در این نوشتار این ایدۀ اصلی را مطرح می‌کنیم که نزدیکی راهبردی ترکیه و روسیه خروجی برهم‌کنش بازتوزیع قدرت و ثروت بین‌المللی، بحران در اتحاد فراآتلانتیکی، ژئوپلیتیک درحال تغییر منطقه‌ای و پویایی‌های سیاست داخلی ترکیه است و به‌ضرورت به‌معنای ظهور مشارکت راهبردی بین دو قدرت اوراسیایی در یک نظام بین‌الملل پساغربی نیست. هرچند شرایط نوین بین‌المللی بسترهای همگرایی ترکیه و روسیه را فراهم ساخته است، اما روابط دو کشور همچنان دارای عناصر مهمی از مناقشه و رقابت و متأثر از وضعیت روابط آن‌ها با غرب است. در این میان، نقش روابط نامتقارن اقتصادی، واگرایی راهبردی در حوزۀ انرژی، عاملیت ناپایدار رهبری اقتدارگرایانۀ پوتین و اردوغان و همچنین رقابت‌های ژئوپلیتیکی در معادلات در حال تغییر دریای سیاه، قفقاز جنوبی، شرق مدیترانه و خاورمیانه برجسته می‌شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| اوراسیا؛ ترکیه؛ روسیه؛ گذار در نظام بین‌الملل؛ مشارکت راهبردی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Turkish-Russian Relations in the Post-Western World; from Geopolitical Rivalry to Strategic Partnership | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Vali Golmohammadi | ||
| Assistant Professor of International Relations, Tarbiat Modares University | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Over the past decades, Turkish-Russian relations have been increasingly characterized by a wide range of cooperation and rapprochement. Beyond strong economic bonds, the main reason behind the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow is the general deterioration of Turkey’s relations with its Western allies which is highly interlinked to the outcomes of changing global order. As American hegemony has been declining, two rising Eurasian powers, Russia and Turkey, have started to challenge Western order and supremacy in the shifting international system. This dynamic context has paved the way for the strategic partnership of revisionist powers. Many scholars even began to argue that Turkey-Russia relations could turn into a strategic alliance in the future if Ankara’s relations with Western allies strain further. However, contrary to what many believe, a persistent strategic alliance between Russia and Turkey is rather unlikely due to serious differences in the two countries’ stances on certain major issues in the changing regional and global politics. This article aims to study the changing nature of Turkey-Russia’s strategic rapprochement systematically. The current literature on Turkish-Russian relations suggests that Turkey is strategically reorienting away from the West towards Eurasia, Russia in Particular. Instead, this article seeks to explain the multi-dimensional nature of Turkey’s strategic rapprochement with Russia in a changing international system. It argues that Turkey’s growing interest in closer cooperation with Russia is taking place amidst a transforming global order, shifting regional geopolitics and domestic political dynamics. In this context, Turkey’s rising partnership with Russia does not necessarily mean an axis shift at the expense of its traditional Western orientation. Rather, this growing strategic rapprochement is the outcome of a dynamic reaction to the ongoing power transition in the international system, a rising rift in transatlantic alliances, the crisis in Turkish domestic politics, and the geopolitical developments surrounding the two emerging Eurasian powers. Although the transforming global structures have paved the way for Turkey-Russia strategic partnership, bilateral relations continue to be characterized by significant elements of conflict and geopolitical rivalry and also are highly affected by their relations with the West. Among other factors, the role of asymmetric economic interdependence, divergent energy strategies, authoritarian leadership agency, as well as geopolitical rivalries in the changing geopolitics of the Black Sea, the South Caucasus, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East are highlighted. In the charter of IR theories, the Neorealist school in particular and also in the changing global world order, being Multipolar seems to have facilitated the efforts of rising powers to forge a strategic partnership with each other as well as pursuing Multi-directional and Multi-dimensional foreign policies. For rising non-Western powers, being Multipolar seems to have paved the way for the formation of pragmatic and flexible strategic cooperation while viewing each other as potential rivals on some critical issues. In this theoretical context, despite historical roots of animosity and geopolitical rivalry between Turkey and Russia, as two rising Eurasian powers, Ankara and Moscow have succeeded in compartmentalizing their relations in the changing global order. However, this does not necessarily mean that Turkish leaders are keen to make a strong strategic alliance with Russia. Ankara’s gradual shift away from Western allies in recent years does not demonstrate a strong Turkish commitment to end its strategic and institutional partnership with the transatlantic alliance but it is reconsidering its international standing in more Eastern ways. On the contrary, Turkey’s strategic rapprochement with Russia should be seen as a realist adjustment to the realities of the emerging post-Western multilateral world order. This article concludes by stating that Turkey-Russia emerging strategic partnership in the changing global order faces various structural and normative constraints. The article offers four notable points in this regard: first, Turkey’s strategic relations with Russia is to a very high degree determined by the development of its relations with traditional western allies as Ankara still has a structural security-economic dependency on the West and has important disagreements with Moscow regarding the changing geopolitical issues in the Middle East, Black Sea, East Mediterranean, and South Caucasus. Second, it is worth noting that the intense personal relations between Erdogan and Putin, the two authoritarian leaders, itself is an unstable element in shaping an institutionalized strategic partnership as the two ambitious leaders have an uncompromising distrust of each other. Third, although the high volume of trade has become a key element in improving Turkish-Russian relations, the trade imbalance and asymmetric economic interdependence between the two countries, especially Turkey’s dependence on energy imports from Russia, is an obstacle to drawing the prospect of strategic cooperation between Ankara and Moscow. Over the past decade, various geopolitical developments in their immediate neighborhood with a security dimension interfere with the trade interdependence between the countries. In other words, the fluctuations in Turkish-Russian trade relations also demonstrate the primacy of politics and security for sustained economic interdependence in the longer term. Finally, with all the disagreements in Turkey’s relations with Western allies, the scale and intensity of potential threats to Turkey’s national security and interests emanating from Russia are too high as the two Eurasian powers present competitive perception and intention towards the post-Western order in the making. Although Ankara treats the US and EU differently, Turkey is increasingly instrumentalizing its growing relations with Eastern powers to gain greater diplomatic leverage vis-à-vis Western powers. Therefore, it seems that the contributions over the rising of a strategic partnership between Turkey and Russia are overstated, at least in the foreseeable future, and the recent moves in improving the strategic cooperation of the two countries should be seen as a pragmatic response to sets of common challenges and opportunities in changing regional and global context. All in all, the dynamics of strategic ties between Ankara and Moscow can rarely be stabilized. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Eurasia, Russia, Strategic Partnership, The International System in Transition, Turkey | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Aghaee, D. and E. Taheri (2017), “Geo-economics Explanation of the Middle East and Central Asian Regional Order in the Global System”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 255-270 [in Persian].
Aktürk, Şener (2015), “The Fourth Style of Politics: Eurasianism as a Pro-Russian Rethinking of Turkey’s Geopolitical Identity,” Turkish Studies, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 54-79.
Ashdown, Nick (2018), “Turkish Nuclear Plant a Threat to Environment, Experts Say”, Ahval News, Available at: https://ahvalnews.com/akkuyu/ turkish-nuclear-plant-threat-environment-experts-say, (Accessed on: 26/4/2018).
Biondani, Di Paolo and Leo Sisti (2017), “The Pipeline of the Three Regimes”, L’Espresso, Available at: https://espresso.repubblica.it/ inchieste/2017/04/18/news/the-pipeline-of-the-three-regimes-1.299786, (Accessed on: 20/4/2017).
Brzezinski, Zbigniew (2016), “Toward a Global Realignment”, The American Interest, Vol. 1, No. 6, pp. 1-11.
Cagaptay, Soner (2020), Erdogan’s Empire; Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East, I. B. Tauris, Bloomsbury Publishing Plc.
Cook, Steven (2018), “Neither Friend nor Foe the Future of U.S.-Turkey Relations”, Council on Foreign Relations, Special Report No. 82, pp. 1-74.
Erdogan, Recep Tayyip (2018), “Erdogan: How Turkey Sees the Crisis with the U.S.”, New York Times, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/ 2018/08/10/opinion/turkey-erdogan-trump-crisis-sanctions.html, (Accessed on: 10/9/2017).
Erşen, Emre (2017). “Evaluating the Fighter Jet Crisis in Turkish-Russian Relations”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 85-104.
Erşen, Emre (2019), “The Return of Eurasianism in Turkey Relations with Russia and Beyond”, in: Turkey’s Pivot to Eurasia, Routledge, pp. 31-49.
Erşen, Emre and Seçkin Köstem (2019), Turkey’s Pivot to Eurasia; Geopolitics and Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order, Routledge.
“Foreign Trade and Tourism Statistics” (2019), Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK), Statistic Trade Portal, Nov. 10, Available at: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=dis-ticaret-104&dil=1, (Accessed on: 11/3/2020).
Golmohammadi, V. (2019), “The Clash of Roles in the Middle East; Understanding the Tension in US-Turkey Relations”, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 22, No. 85, pp. 107-133 [in Persian].
Golmohammadi, V., S. Sajjadpour and M. Shafaiee (2017), “Erdoganism and Understanding the Turkish Middle East Policy”, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 73, pp. 69-92 [in Persian].
Goodman, Peter S. (2018), “Turkey’s Economy is so Hot it May Face a Meltdown”, New York Times, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/ 2018/07/10/business/turkey-economy-erdogan.html, (Accessed on: 10/8/2017).
Haugom, Lars (2019), “Turkish Foreign Policy under Erdogan: a Change in International Orientation”?, Comparative Strategy, Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 206-223.
Hill, Fiona and Ömer Taşpınar (2016), “Turkey and Russia: Axis of the Excluded?”, Survival, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 81-92.
Ikenberry, G. John (2018), “The End of Liberal International Order?”, International Affairs, Vol. 94, Issue 1, pp. 7-23.
Koru, Selim (2017), “Turkey’s Black Sea Policy: Navigating between Russia and the West”, Eurasianet, Available at: https://eurasianet.org/turkeys-black-sea-policy-navigating-between-russia-and-the-west, (Accessed on: 20/8/2017).
Köstem, Seçkin (2018) (a), “Different Paths to Regional Hegemony: National Identity Contestation and Foreign Economic Strategy in Russia and Turkey”, Review of International Political Economy, Vol. 25, No. 5, pp. 726-52.
Köstem, Seçkin (2018) (b), “The Political Economy of Turkish-Russian Relations: Dynamics of Asymmetric Interdependence”, Perceptions, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 10-32.
Kravchenko, Stepan and Ilya Arkhipov (2018), “Turkey Crisis Tests Putin’s Powers in Global Game with US”, Bloomberg, Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-14/turkey-crisis-tests-putin-s-power-to-tilt-global-game-with-u-s, (Accessed on: 14/5/2018).
Kucera, J. (2016), “Erdoğan, in Plea to NATO, Says Black Sea has Become ‘Russian Lake’”, Eurasianet, Available at: https://eurasianet.org/ erdogan-plea-nato-says-black-sea-has-become-russian-lake, (Accessed on: 11/4/2018).
Mearsheimer, John J. (2019), “Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order”, International Security, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 7-50.
Meliksetian, Vanand (2018), “The Battle for Energy Dominance in the Mediterranean”, Oil Price, Available at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/ Energy-General/The-Battle-For-Energy-Dominance-In-The-Mediterranean.html, (Accessed on: 2/4/2018).
Misiagiewicz, J. (2013), “Turkey as an Energy Hub in the Mediterranean Region”, Spectrum: Journal of Global Studies, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 107-126.
Öniş, Ziya and Şuhnaz Yilmaz (2016), “Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order: Cooperation, Conflict and Asymmetric Interdependence in a Turbulent Region”, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 71-95.
Özdal, Habibe, Hasan Selim Özertem, Kerim Has and M. Turgut Demirtepe (2013), Turkey–Russia Relations in the Post-Cold War Era: Current Dynamics, Future Prospects, USAK Report No. 13–06, Ankara: International Strategic Research Organization.
Schweller, Randall (2011), “Emerging Powers in an Age of Disorder”, Global Governance, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 285-297.
Shirkhani, M. and M. Mohammad Sharifi (2017), “Energy Geopolitics, Russia and Turkey Pipeline Diplomacy”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 117-133 [in Persian].
Talbot, Valeria (2018), Turkey: Towards a Eurasian Shift, The Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), First Edition.
Taylor, Brian D. (2018), The Code of Putinism, New York: Oxford University Press.
Wike, Richard, Bruce Stokes, Jacob Poushter and Janell Fetterolf (2017), “Less Confidence in Trump Comparing with Merkel and Other World Leaders”, Jun. 26, Pew Research Center, Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2017/06/26/less-confidence-in-trump-compared-with-merkel-and-other-world-leaders/, (Accessed on: 2/5/2017).
Zarakol, Ayşe (2010), After Defeat: How the East Learned to Live with the West, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Zarakol, Ayşe (2016), “Turkey and Russia, Erdoğan and Putin”, PONARS Eurasia Memo, Available at: https://www.ponarseurasia.org/, (Accessed on: 2/3/2016).
Zhdannikov, Dmitry (2018), “The Great Russian Oil Game in Iraqi Kurdistan”, Reuters, Apr. 19, Available at: https://de.reuters.com/article/ instant-article/idUSKBN1HQ1R3, (Accessed on: 19/4/2018). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 773 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 501 |
||