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ارزیابی آثار تغییرات و نوسانات اقلیمی بر مازاد اقتصادی تولیدکنندگان و مصرفکنندگان بخش کشاورزی در دشت همدان- بهار | ||
تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران | ||
مقاله 4، دوره 54، شماره 1، فروردین 1402، صفحه 53-72 اصل مقاله (1.71 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijaedr.2022.341524.669140 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
شیوا سلطانی1؛ سید حبیبالله موسوی* 1؛ صادق خلیلیان2؛ حامد نجفی علمدارلو1 | ||
1گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
2روه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
وقوع تغییرات و نوسانات اقلیمی، از طریق تغییر در عرضه و قیمت محصولات کشاورزی، سودآوری تولید در این بخش و نیز سهم غذا در درآمد مصرفکنندگان را تحت الشعاع قرار میدهد. لذا مازادهای اجتماعی همگام با دسترسی فیزیکی و اقتصادی به مواد غذایی دستخوش نوسان خواهد شد. بر این اساس به منظور سیاستگذاری مؤثر جهت سازگاری با شرایط جدید اقلیمی، برآوردهای صحیحی از تغییرات رفاه جامعه که در نتیجهی رخدادهای اقلیمی ایجاد خواهد شد، مورد نیاز است. با توجه به این رویکرد، در مطالعهی حاضر آثار بالقوهی پیشبینیهای مختلف اقلیمی بر الگوی کشت دشت همدان- بهار، با در نظر گرفتن سال زراعی 1397-1396 به عنوان سال پایه، مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و میزان تأثیرپذیری منابع آبی، تولید و متعاقب آن، امنیت غذایی در بخش کشاورزی این دشت ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که اثر توأمان تغییرات و نوسانات اقلیمی، همگام با افزایش 44 درصدی برداشت بخش کشاورزی از آبخوان این دشت در دورهی برنامهریزی 20 سالهی تحقیق، ارزش حال مقادیر مازاد مصرفکننده، تولیدکننده و رفاه اقتصادی کل در بخش کشاورزی منطقه در مقایسه با شرایط کنونی را به ترتیب به میزان 27 درصد کاهش، 16 درصد افزایش و 4 درصد کاهش خواهد داد. لذا اتخاذ راهبردهای سازگاری با پدیدهی مذکور، جهت تخفیف یافتن آثار منفی آن بر امنیت غذایی منطقه، اجتنابناپذیر خواهد بود. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
الگوی پویا؛ تبخیر و تعرق؛ عملکرد محصول؛ مازادهای اجتماعی؛ منابع آب | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
The effects of climate change and climate variability on economic surplus of producers and consumers in the agricultural sector of Hamadan– Bahar plain | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Shiva Soltani1؛ Seyed Habibollah Mosavi1؛ Sadegh Khalilian2؛ Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo1 | ||
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
2Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
The occurrence of climate change and variability, through changes in the supply and price of crops, overshadows the profitability of production in this sector and the share of food in consumer income. Therefore, social surpluses would fluctuate with physical and economic access to food. Accordingly, to make effective policies to adapt to new climatic conditions, accurate estimates of the welfare changes that will occur as a result of climatic events are needed. According to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of the Hamadan-Bahar plain were investigated, and the impact of water resources, production, and food security in the agricultural sector of this plain was evaluated. The results showed that with the combined effect of climate change and variability, along with a 44% increase in agricultural consumption from the aquifer of this plain during the 20-year planning period, the present value of consumer and producer surplus and also, total economic welfare in the region's agricultural sector would decrease by 27%, increase by 16% and decrease by 4% compared to the baseline conditions, respectively. Therefore, it will be inevitable to adopt strategies to adapt to this phenomenon to mitigate its negative effects on food security in the region. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Crop Yield, Dynamic Pattern, Evapotranspiration, Social Surpluses, Water Resources | ||
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