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مرور نظام‌مند پژوهش‌های حوزه آینده‌پژوهی رسانه با تمرکز بر مفاهیم نوظهور فناوری‌های نوین | ||
| بررسی‌های مدیریت رسانه | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 1، شماره 2، 1401، صفحه 168-188 اصل مقاله (623.35 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/mmr.2000.89051 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی اکبر فرهنگی1؛ هومن قاپچی* 2 | ||
| 1استاد، گروه مدیریت رسانه، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2دکتری تخصصی، گروه مدیریت رسانه، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف: پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل نظام‌مند پژوهش‌های انجام‌گرفته در حوزه آینده‌پژوهی رسانه و فناوری (فراجهان، واقعیت تعمیم‌یافته، غوطه‌وری 360درجه، جهان بیش‌متصل، فرا ـ انتقال و چندحسانه‌ای‌ها) اجرا شده که زمینه‌ساز انجام پژوهش‌های بین‌رشته‌ای آتی میان مدیریت رسانه، مدیریت فناوری، آینده‌پژوهی و... است. روش: مرور نظام‌مند، شیوه‌ای تحلیلی بر پایه منابع ثانویه است که با بهره‌گیری از کارکردهای تنوع و تکرار، به تجمیع و تحلیل داده‌ها می‌پردازد. در غربالگری اولیه با بهره‌گیری از تحدید روشمند دامنه تحقیق و بنا به نظر جمع پنل خبرگی، از میان 4,653,810 رکورد ثبت شده، به بیش از 700 سند علمی آینده‌پژوهی رسانه از پایگاه‌های علمی وب‌آوساینس، اشپرینگر، امرالد، الزویر، اسکوپوس و ساینس دایرکت دست یافتیم. در غربالگری ثانویه، 42 سند از 700 سند باقی ماند که مضمون‌ها، مفهوم‌ها، کلیدواژه‌ها، روندها و سناریوهای موجود در آن‌ها استخراج، نقد و بررسی شد. یافته‌ها: شناسایی ضرورت‌های نگاه اکوسیستمی به فناوری‌های نوین و پروتکل اینترنت آینده، رویکرد پنج شرکت فناوری بزرگ موسوم به گافام (گوگل، اپل، فیس‌بوک، آمازون، مایکروسافت)، سه سناریو آینده متاورس، ابهام‌زدایی از مفاهیم نوظهور آینده‌پژوهی رسانه، شناخت پیامدها، تهدیدها و نگرانی‌های اینترنت افکار و... از یافته‌های این پژوهش بوده‌اند. نتیجه‌گیری: یافته‌ها نشان داد که کاربست فناوری‌های نوظهور در حوزه بازاریابی، به‌ویژه در سه سال اخیر، رشد تصاعدی داشته است و احتمالاً این رویکرد در سناریوهای آینده این حوزه نیز نقش اساسی ایفا خواهد کرد. همچنین می‌توان دریافت که علی‌رغم نگاه‌های خوش‌بینانه‌ای که با رویکرد حال امتداد یافته است، به نگاه‌هایی واقع‌نگرانه‌تر از جنس آینده‌های نااندیشیده نیازمندیم. از آنجایی که شایسته نیست تنها نظاره‌گر فرازها و فرودهای فناوری آینده باشیم، بایستی در این حوزه به سهم خود کنشگری فعال را تمرین کنیم، از این رو، شناخت اکوسیستم فناوری‌های جدید و اتخاذ راهبردهای حکمرانی پلتفرمی با برنامه‌های سه، پنج و هفتساله در افق ده‌ساله، ضرورت ملی خواهد بود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| فراجهان؛ واقعیت تعمیم‌یافته؛ غوطه‌وری360 درجه؛ فراانتقال؛ مالسی مدیا (چندحسانه‌ای)؛ آینده‌پژوهی رسانه | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Systematic Review of the Media Futures Studies Focusing on the Emerging Technologies Buzzwords | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ali Akbar Farhangi1؛ Hooman Qapchi2 | ||
| 1Full professor, postdoctoral fellow in organizational communications, Prof., Department of Media Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2PhD, Department of Media Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Objective The main goal of this paper is the Systematic Review of the main themes/topics in media and technology futures studies (Metaverse, Extended reality, Immersion360, Hyperconnected world, MetaMobility and MulseMedia) that will hopefully ease future interdisciplinary research on media/technology management, futures Studies, etc. In order to reach this goal, adopting a tangible, valid & reliable Terminology would be vital. Literature Review In order to classify the Literature review from both the future studies or the media perspective, the first section should be the introduction of new concepts such as (Extended reality and Metaverse, Augmented cognition, MulseMedia (multisensory), Internet of things vs Internet of thoughts, etc.). The second part belongs to the Wild Cards. Since many of the buzzwords and the main part of the research literature, have had the same nature, in this section, we mostly review the previous documents about the future communication infrastructure of platforms such as the hyperconnected world, which opens up many potential possibilities in an exponential way and could become de facto in near future. The third part belongs to weak signals. Trends and scenarios should also be seen in sequence. The process of expanding future communications, the process of the evolution of the outer world, as well as the process of combining the five senses and trying to reach the "multi-sensory multi-media" super human with the help of human enablers are among them. Depending on the paradigm of each process, the type of scenario conclusion also differs. In this research, in the systematic review of previous studies, we came up with three scenarios of individual platforms, micro-metaverses and macro metaverses, each of which has its own requirements. For instance, GAFAMs "Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft" have relatively adopted similar macro media policy in facing emerging technologies in the field of "new realities and Metauniverses". And last but not the least, in the consequences and predictions section, the concerns and threats of the Metaverse and Extended reality, such as public opinion manipulation and Mind engineering, etc. are mentioned. Research Methodology Analytically based on secondary sources, systematic review collects and analyzes data by diversity and repetition. In the initial filtration, using the methodical limitation of the research scope and according to the experts’ panel, among the 4,653,810 recorded records, we found more than 700 scientific documents on the future of media research from the scientific databases Web of Science, Springer, Emerald, Elsevier, Scopus and Science Direct. In the secondary filtration, 42 documents remained in which themes, concepts, keywords, trends, and existing scenarios were reviewed. In this research, the stage of searching, identifying and extracting articles from scientific databases and removing duplicate results took about three months. Keywords used to be verified in weekly meetings with the expert panel from the Research Center for the Development of Advanced Technologies. After reaching the keywords, we searched them in the reliable databases such as Web of Science, Scopus, Springer, Emerald, Elsevier, etc. Nowadays, since emerging technologies are subject to many interdisciplinary discussions and as a result everyone is looking at this "elephant in the dark house" with suspicion, in the initial screening stage we kept only those articles which were related to the topics of futures studies and media management. For the second filtration, with support of the above-mentioned expert panel, we had made a table so that we could do the secondary filtration more accurately. This very section scoring was from one to ten based on the credibility of the source, the number of references, the year of publication, relevance to keywords, approach and methodology, categories (if it was futuristic and technological), the innovation of the concept and so on. The last stage was the final evaluation of the extracted articles (grades 8 and above) considering the project goals and finally the final filtration of the articles. Findings We made final access to 42 relevant and up-to-date scientific documents among 4,653,810 records before initial selection using methodical research scope limitation. In the second selection, by studying more than 700 scientific documents from reliable databases such as Web of science, Springer, Emerald, Elsevier, Scopus and ScienceDirect, we’ve found a winning arrangement of existing concepts, keywords, trends and scenarios. Just Consider this one as an example: In recent years, especially in the last two years, the attention of industries to invest in and benefit from the capabilities of Extended reality has greatly expanded, so that industrial investments in this area have increased from about 4 billion dollars in 2018 to more than 80 billion dollars in 2022. The winning combination of metaverse keyword searches (meta, epic, iPhone moment, AR glasses, and number ready player one) and the top searchable databases are Springer and Elsevier. In the secondary screening, we encountered a high volume of pseudoscience (47 out of 54 cases) in Google Scholar. The winning combination of the keyword search was Extended reality (virtual reality, augmented reality, mixed reality, augmented cyberspace and immersion). Most of the literature produced in this field belongs to the last three years and the most important was the Science Direct database. The main focus of the studies was on the two axes of "legislation" and "data ethics", which is very evident in domestic studies. Accomplishing searches of the MulseMedia keyword include: wearables, human enablers, multi-sensory, multimedia, augmented senses. Springer, Emerald and IEEE are the leaders of the multimedia review. So far, the augmented reality of the five senses "sight, hearing, smell, taste and hearing" has been successfully tested, such as the Mojo augmented vision lens or Livio augmented hearing aid which are their commercialized forms. Discussion & Conclusion The findings of the research show that the use of emerging technologies has grown exponentially, especially in the last three years. Despite optimistic views in progress approach, we need more realistic views of unforeseen future. As it is not appropriate to be just a passive observer of the future technology, we should practice more action by knowing the ecosystem of new technologies, scenario thinking and adopting platform governance/resilience strategies. So far, adopting five and seven-year plans in a ten-year horizon would a national necessity. Due to exponential developments, media-technological paradigms are rapidly undergoing transformations. It is suggested that in future research studies, by creating multidisciplinary groups among universities, industry and government, consultation will be held with experts from related fields on the discussion of governance/ Platform Resilience and Media Governance/Ecosystem Resilience. Apart from examining SWOT of each of these emerging concepts and technologies, their integration with each other should also be considered. In the 20-year horizon, several trends have been proposed to achieve the superhuman, however, among the three optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios; Humans attaining immortality in 2045 is the prevailing scenario. It should be noted that due to the latency of exposure to technologies and the retrospective look to the crises in IRAN, not only have we not had a correct understanding of the new communication and media paradigms related to technology, but we lack the required readiness. Therefore, one of the main suggestions of this research is to replace negative views with positive ones and not to allocate funds and facilities to "Lock the barn door after the horse is gone" in the field of communication, media and technology. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Metaverse, Extended Reality, Immersion360, Meta-mobility, Mulsemedia (Multisensory Media), Media Futures Studies | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 2,894 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 807 |
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