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پایش و پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی استان کردستان با استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی و مدل CA-Markov | ||
| تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران | ||
| دوره 55، شماره 2، تیر 1403، صفحه 379-395 اصل مقاله (1.46 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijaedr.2022.335433.669110 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| میلاد ژولیده1؛ ناصر مطیعی* 1؛ علی اسدی2 | ||
| 1گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 2گروه مدیریت و توسعه دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییرات کاربری اراضی یکی از پویاترین اجزای طبیعت است که بعد از انقلاب صنعتی در مقیاس‌های مختلف به‌طور قابل توجهی در حال افزایش می‌باشد. پایش مدوام این تغییرات و کمی سازی آنها درک بهتری از عملکرد و سلامت اکوسیستم به ما می‌دهد. بنابراین هدف این مطالعه مدل‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی استان کردستان با استفاده از مدل ترکیبی Cellular Automata (CA) –Markov بوده است. بدین منظور نقشه کاربری اراضی سال‌های 1379، 1389 و 1399 با استفاده از تصاویر لندست با روش طبقه‌بندی حداکثر احتمال در شش کلاس تهیه گردید. سپس با استفاده از نقشه شبیه‌سازی سال 1399 و نقشه واقعی مدل ارزیابی شد و سپس نقشه کاربری در شش طبقه کاربری برای سال‌های 1409 و 1419 پیش‌بینی گردید. بررسی تغییرات بین سال‌های 1399-1379 نشان داد که کاربری‌های اراضی کشاورزی، اراضی بایر با پوشش گیاهی کم، مناطق شهری و انسان ساخت و بسترهای آبی به ترتیب 05/19، 36/12، 30/0 و 27/0 درصد افزایش داشته این درحالی است که کاربری‌های جنگل و مراتع به ترتیب 75/14 و 22/17 درصد کاهش داشته‌اند. ارزیابی مدل نشان داد که ضریب کاپای مدل در تمامی ضرایب بالای 8/0 بوده که این بیانگر کارایی بالای مدل می‌باشد. بررسی تغییرات آینده کاربری اراضی نسبت به سال 1379 نشان داد که بین سال‌های 1379 تا 1409 کاربری‌های جنگل و مراتع 47/17 و 34/28 و بین سال 1379 تا 1419 این کاربری‌های به ترتیب 98/21 و 78/29 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. در بازه زمانی 1379 تا 1409 کاربری‌های اراضی کشاورزی، اراضی بایر با پوشش گیاهی، مناطق مسکونی و انسان ساخت و بسترهای آبی به ترتیب 54/32، 55/12، 46/0 و 26/0 افزایش یافته است، این کاربری‌ها در بازه زمانی 1379 تا 1419 به‌ترتیب 96/36، 88/12، 58/1 و 33/0 افزایش می‌یابد. نتایج این تحقیق به خوبی روند تغییرات حال و آینده کاربری‌ها را نشان داد که این نتایج برای محققین علوم طبیعی، حافظان محیط‌زیست، سازمانهای غیردولتی و سیاست‌مداران و برنامه‌ریزان شهری بسیار مفید و ارزشمند است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی؛ تغییر کاربری اراضی؛ پیش‌بینی؛ زنجیره مارکوف؛ ضریب کاپا | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Monitoring and Predicting Land Use Changes in Kurdistan Province by GIS and CA-Markov Model | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Milad Zhoolideh1؛ Naser Motee1؛ Ali Asadi2 | ||
| 1Departmen of Agricultural Management of Development, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 2Departmen of Agricultural Management of Development, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Land use changes are one of nature's most dynamic components, evolving dramatically at various sizes since the Industrial Revolution. Ongoing monitoring and quantification of such changes allow us to have a better knowledge of the ecosystem's function and health. The present study aims to apply the Markov hybrid Cellular Automata (CA) model to model land use changes in Kurdistan province. Land use maps were provided using Landsat data and the maximum probability classification approach in six groups for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000. It was then analyzed using the simulation map of 2000 and the real map of the model, and finally, the user map for the years 2030 and 2040 was forecasted using six user classifications. The utilization of agricultural lands, barren lands with little vegetation, urban and built-up regions, and irrigated beds rose by 19.05, 12.36, 0.30, and 0.27 percent, respectively, between 2000 and 2011. Forest and rangeland land use, on the other hand, have declined by 14.75 percent and 17.22 percent, respectively. The kappa coefficient of the model in all coefficients was greater than 0.8, indicating that the model is very efficient. The assessment of future changes in land use compared to 1980 found that forest and rangeland land uses dropped by 17.47 and 28.34 percent between 1980 and 2030, and by 21.98 and 29.78 percent between 1980 and 2040, respectively. Agricultural lands, barren lands with vegetation, residential and built-up regions, and water beds have grown 32.54%, 12.55%, 0.46%, and 0.26%, respectively, from 1980 to 2030, while these uses have increased 36.96%, 12.88%, 1.58%, and 0.33%, respectively, from 1980 to 2040. The findings of this study demonstrate the present and future trends in land use change, which is extremely necessary and beneficial to natural science researchers, environmentalists, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), politicians, and urban planners. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Geographic Information System, Land-use Change, Prediction, Markov Chain, Kappa Coefficient | ||
| مراجع | ||
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