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ریزمقیاس‌نمایی متغیرهای بارش و دما با استفاده از مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP (مطالعۀ موردی: رودخانه هررود لرستان) | ||
| مجله اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| دوره 9، شماره 3، مهر 1401، صفحه 657-673 اصل مقاله (2.11 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2022.346258.1664 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| بابک شاهی نژاد* 1؛ علی کاکاوند2؛ حجت اله یونسی3؛ حسین یوسفی4 | ||
| 1استادیار، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی سازههای آبی، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد | ||
| 3دانشیار، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد | ||
| 4دانشیار، گروه انرژی های نو و محیط زیست، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در پژوهش حاضر، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر متغیرهای هواشناسی در حوضۀ آبریز رودخانه هررود لرستان با استفاده از مدل پیشبینیکنندۀ CanESM5 تحت سناریوهایRCP (RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5) براساس گزارش ششم IPCC برای سه دورۀ زمانی 25 ساله آیندۀ نزدیک (2026-2050)، آیندۀ میانی (2051-2075) و آیندۀ دور (2076-2100) میلادی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. به منظور ریزمقیاس‌نمایی پارامترهای بارش و دمای متوسط از مدل ریزمقیاس‌گردانی SDSM و یک دورۀ زمانی 1970ـ 2005 میلادی در دو ایستگاه هواشناسی کاکارضا و دهنو استفاده شد. نتایج به‌‌دست‌آمده از این پژوهش در هر دو ایستگاه کاکارضا و دهنو، نشاندهندۀ کاهش بارش و افزایش دمای متوسط تحت سناریوهای RCP در دورههای زمانی آتی نسبت به دورۀ پایه بود؛ به گونهای که در بازۀ زمانی آیندۀ دور (2076-2100) میلادی تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 (سناریوی بدبینانه) در ایستگاههای کاکارضا و دهنو، بارش به‌ترتیب 39 و 36 درصد در مقیاس ماهانه و 36/30 و 35/33 درصد در مقیاس سالانه، بیشترین کاهش و دمای متوسط به‌ترتیب 5/17 و 1/17 درصد در مقیاس ماهانه و 32/9 و 06/9 درصد در مقیاس سالانه بیشترین افزایش را خواهند داشت. در نهایت، نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه نشان داد پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم اثر زیادی بر پارامترهای بارش و دما در حوضۀ آبریز رودخانۀ هررود خواهد داشت. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ رودخانۀ هررود؛ گزارش ششم؛ مدل SDSM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature Using CanESM2 Model Based on RCP Scenarios (case study: Horrood River) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Babak Shahinejad1؛ Ali Kakavand2؛ Hojjatoallh Yonesi3؛ Hossein Yousefi4 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 2PhD student of Water Structures Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 4Associate Professor, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In this study, the effects of climate change on meteorological parameters in the Horrood river in lorestan Province, using CanESM5 model under RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) was evaluated based on the sixth IPCC report in three time periods including the near future (2026-2050), the middle future (2051-2075) and the distant future (2076-2100). The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to predict precipitation and mean temperature in the baseline period 1970-2005 at Kaka Reza and Dehno synoptic stations. The results of this study, in both Kaka Reza and Dehno stations, indicated a decreasing in precipitation and an increasing in average temperature under the all three RCP scenarios over the future period, so that in the distant future (2076-2100), under the RCP8.5 scenario (i.e. the pessimistic one), at Kaka Reza and Dehno synoptic stations, the precipitation showed the highest decreased by 36 and 39 percent in monthly scale and 30.36 and 33.35 percent in annual scale respectively and the mean temperature showed the highest increased by 17.5 and 17.1 in monthly scale and 9.32 and 9.06 in annual scale respectively. Finally, the results of this study showed that the climate change will affect precipitation and temperature in the Horrood river basin. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| climate change, Horrood River, sixth report, SDSM model | ||
| مراجع | ||
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