پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 161 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,532 |
| تعداد مقالات | 70,501 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 124,112,231 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 97,216,024 |
ریزمقیاس‌نمایی متغیرهای بارش و دما با استفاده از مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP (مطالعۀ موردی: رودخانه هررود لرستان) | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| دوره 9، شماره 3، مهر 1401، صفحه 657-673 اصل مقاله (2.11 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2022.346258.1664 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| بابک شاهی نژاد* 1؛ علی کاکاوند2؛ حجت اله یونسی3؛ حسین یوسفی4 | ||
| 1استادیار، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی سازههای آبی، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد | ||
| 3دانشیار، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد | ||
| 4دانشیار، گروه انرژی های نو و محیط زیست، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در پژوهش حاضر، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر متغیرهای هواشناسی در حوضۀ آبریز رودخانه هررود لرستان با استفاده از مدل پیشبینیکنندۀ CanESM5 تحت سناریوهایRCP (RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5) براساس گزارش ششم IPCC برای سه دورۀ زمانی 25 ساله آیندۀ نزدیک (2026-2050)، آیندۀ میانی (2051-2075) و آیندۀ دور (2076-2100) میلادی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. به منظور ریزمقیاس‌نمایی پارامترهای بارش و دمای متوسط از مدل ریزمقیاس‌گردانی SDSM و یک دورۀ زمانی 1970ـ 2005 میلادی در دو ایستگاه هواشناسی کاکارضا و دهنو استفاده شد. نتایج به‌‌دست‌آمده از این پژوهش در هر دو ایستگاه کاکارضا و دهنو، نشاندهندۀ کاهش بارش و افزایش دمای متوسط تحت سناریوهای RCP در دورههای زمانی آتی نسبت به دورۀ پایه بود؛ به گونهای که در بازۀ زمانی آیندۀ دور (2076-2100) میلادی تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 (سناریوی بدبینانه) در ایستگاههای کاکارضا و دهنو، بارش به‌ترتیب 39 و 36 درصد در مقیاس ماهانه و 36/30 و 35/33 درصد در مقیاس سالانه، بیشترین کاهش و دمای متوسط به‌ترتیب 5/17 و 1/17 درصد در مقیاس ماهانه و 32/9 و 06/9 درصد در مقیاس سالانه بیشترین افزایش را خواهند داشت. در نهایت، نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه نشان داد پدیدۀ تغییر اقلیم اثر زیادی بر پارامترهای بارش و دما در حوضۀ آبریز رودخانۀ هررود خواهد داشت. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ رودخانۀ هررود؛ گزارش ششم؛ مدل SDSM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature Using CanESM2 Model Based on RCP Scenarios (case study: Horrood River) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Babak Shahinejad1؛ Ali Kakavand2؛ Hojjatoallh Yonesi3؛ Hossein Yousefi4 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 2PhD student of Water Structures Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 3Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran | ||
| 4Associate Professor, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In this study, the effects of climate change on meteorological parameters in the Horrood river in lorestan Province, using CanESM5 model under RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) was evaluated based on the sixth IPCC report in three time periods including the near future (2026-2050), the middle future (2051-2075) and the distant future (2076-2100). The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to predict precipitation and mean temperature in the baseline period 1970-2005 at Kaka Reza and Dehno synoptic stations. The results of this study, in both Kaka Reza and Dehno stations, indicated a decreasing in precipitation and an increasing in average temperature under the all three RCP scenarios over the future period, so that in the distant future (2076-2100), under the RCP8.5 scenario (i.e. the pessimistic one), at Kaka Reza and Dehno synoptic stations, the precipitation showed the highest decreased by 36 and 39 percent in monthly scale and 30.36 and 33.35 percent in annual scale respectively and the mean temperature showed the highest increased by 17.5 and 17.1 in monthly scale and 9.32 and 9.06 in annual scale respectively. Finally, the results of this study showed that the climate change will affect precipitation and temperature in the Horrood river basin. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| climate change, Horrood River, sixth report, SDSM model | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1]. Hafezparast M, Pourkheirolah Z. The effect of RCP scenarios on hydrological parameters, case study: Doiraj Dam catchment. Watershed Engineering and Management. 2017;10(2): 231-248. [Persian]
[2]. Hooshmand D, Khordadi MJ. Uncertainty assessment of AOGCMS and emission scenarios in climatic parameters estimation (case study in Mashhad synoptic station). J of Geography and Environmental Hazards. 2014;3(3): 77-92. [Persian]
[3]. Jahangir M, Sadati Nejad SJ, Haghighi P. Predicting of Temperature Parameters under the CanEMS2 Model (Case Study: Lar Synoptic Station). J of Extension and Development of Watershed Management. 2018; 6(22): 45-58. [Persian]
[4]. Dunning CM, Allan RP, Black E. Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters. 2017; 12(11):1-11.
[5]. Rowell DP. An observational constraint on CMIP5 projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean warming. Geophysical Research Letters. 2019; 46(11):6050–6058.
[6]. Wainwright CM, Marsham JH, Keane RJ, Rowell DP, Finney DL, Black E, et al. Eastern African Paradox rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains. Climate and atmospheric science. 2019; 2 (34):1-9.
[7]. Heydari STK, Hosseini SA, Heydari ATK. Investigating the effects of climate change on stream flows of Urmia Lake basin in Iran. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment. 2020; 6:329–339.
[8]. Jiang J, Zhou T, Chen X, Zhang L. Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 15(5):1–8.
[9]. You Q, Cai Z, Wu F, Jiang Z, Pepin N, Shen SP. Temperature dataset of CMIP6 models over China: evaluation, trend and uncertainty. Climate Dynamics. 2021; 57(1):17–35.
[10]. Akbari. M, Salimi S, Hosseini SA, Hosseini M. Spatio-temporal changes of atmospheric rivers in the Middle East and North Africa region. International Journal Climatology. 2019;39(10):3976–3986.
[11]. Almazroui M, Saeed F, Saeed S, Ismail M, Ehsan MA, Islam MN, et al. Projected changes in climate extremes using CMIP6 simulations over SREX regions. Earth Systems and Environment. 2021; 5:481–497.
[12]. Wilby RL, Dawson CW. SDSM4- A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts. User Manual. 2007;1-94
[13]. Wilby RL, Dawson CW, Barrow EM. SDSM- A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts. Journal of Environmental Modeling and Software.2002; 17(2): 145-157.
[14]. Zhu H, Jiang Z, L J, Li W, Sun C, Li L. Does CMIP6 inspire more confidence in simulating climate extremes over China?.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2020; 37:1119–1132.
[15]. Luo N, Guo Y, Gao Z, Chen K, Chou J. Assessment of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance for extreme temperature in China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters.2020; 13(6):589–597.
[16]. Yue Y, Yan D, Yue Q, Ji G, Wang. Z. Future changes in precipitation and temperature over the Yangtze River Basin in China based on CMIP6 GCMs, Atmospheric Research.2021; 264:251-264.
[17]. Qin J, Su B, Tao H, Wang Y, Huang j, Jiang T. Projection of temperature and precipitation under SSPs-RCPs Scenarios over northwest China. Frontiers of Earth Science. 2021; 15:23–37.
[18]. Donat GM, Lowry LA, Alexander VL, O’Gorman AP, Maher N. More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nature and Climate change. 2016; 6: 508–513.
[19]. Amirabadizadeh M, Ghazali AH, Huang YF, Wayayok A. Downscaling daily precipitation and temperatures over the Langat River Basin in Malaysia: A comparison of two statistical downscaling approaches. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering.2016; 8: 120–136.
[20]. Gebrechorkos SH, Hülsmann S, Bernhofer C. Statistically downscaled climate dataset for East Africa. Scientific data. 2019; 6(31): 1-8.
[21]. Kazemi DH. Rasul G, Li J. Cheema SB. Comparative Study for ECHAM5 and SDSM in Downscaling Temperature for a Geo-Climatically Diversified Region, Pakistan. Applied Mathematics. 2014; 5(1): 137-143.
[22]. Roshani A, Hamadi M. Forecasting the effects of climate change scenarios on temperature & precipitation based on CMIP6 models (Case study: Sari station). Journal of Water and Irrigation Management. 2022; 11(4): 669-986. [Persian]
[23]. Mortazavifard. S.M, Mobin. M.H, Mokhtari. M. H, Ekrami. M. 2019. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature variables based on the RCP scenarios: A case study of the east of Mazandaran Province, Iran. Journal of meteorology and atmospheric scinence.2019;1(4): 351-364.
[24]. Chen H, YuXu C, Guo S. Comparison and evaluation of multiple GCMs, statistical downscaling and hydrological models in the study of climate change impacts on runoff. Journal of Hydrology.2012; 434(435):36–45.
[25]. Ramadas M, Shaik R, Mujumdar PP. Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga– Bhadra river basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM. Hydrological Processes.2012;27(11): 1572-1589.
[26]. Sobhani B, Eslahi M, Babaeian I. Efficiency of Statistical Downscaling Models of SDSM and LARS-WG in the Simulation of Meteorological Parameters in Lake Urmia Basin. Physical Geography Research Quarterly. 2016; 47(4): 499-516. [Persian]
[27]. Goudarzi M, Salahi B, Hosseini SA. Performance Assessment of LARS-WG and SDSM Downscaling Models in Simulation of Climate Changes in Urmia Lake Basin. Iranian journal of watershed management science.2015;9(31): 11-23. [Persian]
[28]. Zehtabian GR, Salajegheh A, Malekian A, Boroomand N, Azareh A. Evaluation and comparison of performance of SDSM and CLIMGEN models in simulation of climatic variables in Qazvin plain. Desert Journal 2016;21(2): 155-164.
[29]. Aref MR, Alijani. B. Investigation of temperature and precipitation variations of Yazd-Ardakan basin with SDSM under the conditions of future climate change. Journal of Arid Biome.2018;8(1): 89-101 [Persian].
[30]. Javaherian M, Ebrahimi H, Aminnejad B. Prediction of changes in climatic parameters using CanESM2 model based on RCP scenarios (case study): Lar dam basin. Ain Shams Engineering Journal.2020; 12(1):445-454. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 346 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 296 |
||