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مطالعه عدم تقارن در اثر واردات بر رشد کشاورزی در ایران | ||
| تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران | ||
| دوره 54، شماره 2، تیر 1402، صفحه 459-470 اصل مقاله (1.31 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijaedr.2022.347683.669173 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| پریسا انگوتی کلوچه1؛ شهریار نصابیان1؛ رضا مقدسی* 2؛ علی اکبر خسروی نژاد1 | ||
| 1گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد‌و‌حسابداری، واحد تهران‌مرکزی، دانشگاه‌آزاد‌اسلامی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه‌آزاد‌اسلامی، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| کشاورزی به عنوان نیروی محرکه رشد اقتصادی، به ویژه در کشورهای در حال توسعه، مطرح است و توجه به آن، با توجه به اهدافی همچون تأمین درآمد، ایجاد اشتغال، تأمین غذا و ارزآوری، به خصوص در شرایط تحریم اقتصادی، حائز اهمیت است. از سوی دیگر، تجارت خارجی منبع تأمین ارز موردنیاز برای سرمایه‌گذاری در فن‌آوری‌های جدید و افزایش توان تولیدی اقتصاد کشور میباشد. مطالعه حاضر، با بهره گیری از داده های سالانه 99-1357 و به‌کارگیری الگوی خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های گسترده غیرخطی به بررسی اثر خطی و غیرخطی (متقارن و غیرمتقارن) تکانه واردات بر رشد کشاورزی می‌‌پردازد. نتایج موید اثر نامتقارن واردات بر رشد کشاورزی و یا به عبارتی برتری الگوی غیرخطی در توضیح روابط میان متغیرها میباشد. یعنی، تکانه مثبت در ارزش واردات کشاورزی با ضریب 18/0 و در مقابل تکانه منفی آن با ضریب 05/0- بر رشد کشاورزی در بلندمدت موثر خواهد بود اگرچه ضریب دوم به لحاظ آماری معنی دار نیست. هم‌‌چنین وجود عدم تقارن در اثر سایر متغیرها (به غیر از نیروی کار) بر رشد کشاورزی مورد تایید قرار گرفت. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| اثرات غیر خطی؛ الگوی خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های گسترده غیرخطی؛ کشاورزی؛ ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Asymmetry in the Effects of Imports on Agricultural Growth (Application of NARDL Approach) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Parisa Anguoti Klocheh1؛ Shahriar Nessabian1؛ Reza Moghaddasi2؛ Aliakbar Khosravinejad1 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Education, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Agriculture is recognized as the driving force of economic growth, especially in developing economies. Attention to agriculture is extremely important, especially during economic sanctions owing to its critical roles such as income for rural people, food security, job creation, and foreign exchange earnings. On the other hand, foreign trade is vital to technology transfer to the country. The present study investigates the linear (nonlinear) relationship between agricultural import shocks and agricultural growth in Iran using annual data for the period 1978-2020 by application of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The results confirmed asymmetry in the impact of imports on growth. In other words, the superiority of the nonlinear model was in explaining the relationships between variables. To be specific, a positive and negative shock to agricultural imports affected sector growth by 0.18 and -0.05 percent, respectively in the long run. However, the latter was found statistically insignificant. Moreover, we found evidence of the asymmetry in the effect of other variables (except labor) on growth. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Agriculture, Economic Growth, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Model, Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
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