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اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر درآمد کشاورزان ایران با استفاده از رویکرد DSSAT | ||
نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی | ||
دوره 76، شماره 3، مهر 1402، صفحه 539-551 اصل مقاله (732.95 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jne.2023.356366.2535 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
مهسا سیاحی؛ محمود هاشمی تبار* ؛ احمد اکبری | ||
گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
براساس گزارش ریسک های جهانی، تغییر اقلیم در سال 2018 پنجمین ریسک جهانی از نظر احتمال وقوع بود و براساس همین گزارش این پدیده از لحاظ میزان اثرات آن بر جهان و محیط زیست، رتبة دوم را در بین سایر ریسک ها بهخود اختصاص داده است. همین امر بر اهمیت بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم تأکید دارد. در این تحقیق به تحلیل اقتصادی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر درآمد گندم کاران در کشور در طول (2052-2022) پرداخته شده است. برای شبیهسازی عملکرد گندم آبی و تحلیل اقتصادی تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم از برنامه شبیهسازی DSSAT استفاده شد. داده های هواشناسی مورد نیاز تحت سناریوهای مختلف از نرمافزار MarkSim استخراج شد. نتایج نشان داد که درآمد گندمکاران آبی تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم کاهش خواهد یافت. همچنین در بعضی از مناطق ایران کاشت گندم آبی در شرایط بدون تغییر اقلیم و تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم برتری بیشتری دارد و بهنظر میرسد این مناطق را میتوان بهعنوان مناطق مطلوب برای ایجاد جایگاههای کشت گندم آبی در نظر گرفت. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تغییر اقلیم؛ درآمد؛ گندم آبی | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
The effects of climate change on the income of Iranian farmers: DSSAT approach | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Mahsa Sayahi؛ Mahmood Hashemitabar؛ Ahmad Akbari | ||
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Managment, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
According to the Global Risks Report, climate change was the fifth global risk in 2018 in terms of probability of occurrence. According to the same report, this phenomenon ranked second among other risks in terms of its effects on the world and the environment. It emphasizes the importance of investigating the effects of climate change. In this research, the economic analysis of the effects of climate change on the income of wheat farmers in the country during (2052-2022) has been done. DSSAT simulation program has been used to simulate the yield of irrigated wheat and economic analysis under climate change scenarios. The meteorological data required under different scenarios are taken from MarkSim software. The results show that the income of irrigated wheat farmers will decrease under climate change scenarios. Also, in some regions of Iran, irrigated wheat planting is dominant in conditions without climate change and under climate change scenarios, and it seems that these areas can be considered as favorable areas for creating irrigated wheat cultivation ports. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Climate change, Irrigated wheat, Income | ||
مراجع | ||
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