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رقابت اقتصادی چین و آمریکا: تهدیدها و فرصت‌ها بر اقتصاد آفریقای جنوبی | ||
| فصلنامه سیاست | ||
| دوره 55، شماره 1، فروردین 1404، صفحه 187-153 اصل مقاله (682.78 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jpq.2024.383939.1008227 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| امیر بهرام عرب احمدی* 1؛ مهدی سماواتی2 | ||
| 1دانشیار، مطالعات غرب اسیا و آفریقا، دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2کارشناسی ارشد، مطالعات جنوب آفریقا، دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تعاملات چین در قاره آفریقا طی 25 سال گذشته پیوسته افزایش یافته و در این میان، ایالات متحده با هدف رقابت اقتصادی، اقداماتی را در آفریقای جنوبی به‌منظور مقابله با نفوذ چین انجام داده است. این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیرات مثبت و منفی رقابت اقتصادی چین و آمریکا بر اقتصاد آفریقای جنوبی در بازه زمانی 2010 تا 2023 می‌پردازد. سؤال اصلی این است که این رقابت چه تأثیرات منفی یا مثبتی بر اقتصاد آفریقای جنوبی داشته است؟ برای پاسخ به این پرسش، از روش مقایسه‌ای موردمحور استفاده شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که چین و ایالات متحده به‌عنوان دو قدرت بزرگ اقتصادی، نقش بسزایی در شکل‌دهی روابط اقتصادی و تجاری آفریقای جنوبی ایفا کرده‌اند. چین با سرمایه‌گذاری‌های گسترده در حوزه‌هایی نظیر زیرساخت‌ها، معدن، انرژی و حمل‌ونقل، به یکی از بزرگ‌ترین سرمایه‌گذاران خارجی این کشور تبدیل شده است. در مقابل، ایالات متحده به‌عنوان یک بازیگر کلیدی اقتصادی، تلاش کرده است تا از طریق ابزارهای اقتصادی، تجاری و دیپلماتیک نفوذ خود را در این کشور حفظ و تقویت کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که عواملی مانند استخراج منابع طبیعی، گسترش منافع اقتصادی، بازسازی اقتصاد آفریقای جنوبی و تبدیل آن به هاب اقتصادی منطقه، پیوند ژئوپلیتیکی با آسیا از طریق طرح جاده ابریشم چین، و همکاری در راستای تثبیت امنیت جهانی، از جمله مهم‌ترین اثرات رقابت اقتصادی این دو کشور بر آفریقای جنوبی بوده‌اند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| رقابت اقتصادی؛ رقابت سیاسی و فرهنگی؛ چین؛ آمریکا؛ آفریقای جنوبی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigation of the Impact of Economic Competition between China and the US on South Africa from 2010 to 2023 | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Amir Bahram Arab Ahmadi1؛ Mahdi Samavati2 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Department of West Asian and African Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2MA., Department of West Asian and African Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction South Africa, as Africa’s second-largest economy and a major industrial hub, finds itself at the center of the economic and political rivalry between China and the United States. Both global powers seek to expand their influence through economic cooperation, albeit with differing priorities. China has concentrated its efforts on securing minerals, energy resources, and infrastructure development, while the United States emphasizes democracy, human rights, and trade relations. This dynamic competition significantly shapes South Africa’s economic growth and political trajectory, influencing its development strategies and global partnerships. Recognizing the profound implications of this rivalry, this study aims to explore its multifaceted dimensions and assess its broader impacts on South Africa’s economy and political landscape. The article’s theoretical framework is based on Robert Gilpin’s theory of hegemonic stability, which examines power dynamics within the international system, particularly in economic contexts. This theory suggests that global stability is maintained when a single hegemonic power dominates, but the rise of emerging powers, such as China and the United States, disrupts this equilibrium, leading to significant shifts in global power structures. In the context of South Africa, the competition between these two nations reflects their broader struggle for hegemonic influence in Southern Africa, with far-reaching consequences for both regional development and the global economic order. Additionally, the framework incorporates the concept of economic imperialism, highlighting how dominant nations extend their influence over weaker states through strategic investments and economic leverage. Together, these theoretical perspectives provide a lens for understanding the complex interplay of power, competition, and economic dominance shaping South Africa’s position in the global arena. The research method The study utilizes a comparative research method, a fundamental approach in social sciences for analyzing international relations and policies. By identifying similarities and differences, this method uncovers behavioral patterns and interactions between key actors. The research specifically examines the economic competition between China and the United States in South Africa through a case-based comparative lens, focusing on their investment strategies and the resulting impacts on the country’s economy and political landscape. Data is drawn from a variety of sources, including academic literature, international reports, and statistical analyses, to provide a comprehensive understanding of the broader consequences of this rivalry on South Africa’s development trajectory. Discussion The economic relations of both China and the United States with South Africa and other African nations are deeply shaped by the political, economic, and social histories of these regions. Since the Cold War, both powers have actively sought to expand their influence across Africa, though their approaches and strategies have diverged significantly. China has prioritized economic engagement through infrastructure development, resource extraction, and trade, often framed within initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. In contrast, the United States has emphasized democracy promotion, human rights, and trade partnerships, aligning its efforts with broader geopolitical goals. These differing strategies reflect the unique historical contexts and priorities of each nation, while also highlighting the evolving dynamics of global power competition in Africa. China has emerged as one of South Africa’s largest trading partners, significantly expanding its economic relations since 2000. By 2023, the trade volume between the two nations reached $42 billion, marking a substantial increase over the years. South Africa’s exports to China grew from $8 billion in 2010 to $12 billion in 2023, while imports from China surged from $11 billion to $21 billion during the same period. This growing trade relationship underscores South Africa’s increasing reliance on Chinese goods and the deepening of commercial ties. China’s engagement in South Africa spans several key areas, including investment and infrastructure, where it has funded transportation and energy projects such as roads, bridges, and solar energy initiatives. In transportation and logistics, China has collaborated on developing ports and rail lines, including the Cape Town-Pretoria railway project. Additionally, China is a major exporter of goods to South Africa, supplying machinery, electronics, and construction materials, further solidifying its role in the country’s trade and industrial sectors. Conversely, the United States, as the world’s largest economy, has made significant investments in South Africa, particularly in technology, education, and healthcare. From 2010 to 2023, U.S. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in South Africa increased from $5.13 billion to $18.36 billion, indicating a steady upward trend. American tech giants like Google and Microsoft have been instrumental in advancing South Africa’s digital economy, with Microsoft notably establishing a $300 million cloud data center in the country. In the areas of education and healthcare, the U.S. has committed substantial resources, including over $7 billion for health programs focused on combating infectious diseases. These investments underscore the United States' dedication to fostering long-term development and capacity building in South Africa, contrasting with China’s emphasis on infrastructure and trade. Together, the economic activities of both nations reflect their strategic efforts to strengthen influence in South Africa, each utilizing distinct approaches to shape the country’s economic and social landscape. South Africa's exports to the United States have experienced notable fluctuations from 2010 to 2023, rising from $7.15 billion in 2010 to $8.43 billion in 2023. In parallel, imports from the U.S. have also fluctuated due to varying economic conditions and changes in trade policies. In contrast, China, one of South Africa's largest trading partners, achieved a trade volume of $42 billion in 2023. China remains a key exporter of goods to South Africa, supplying a diverse range of products, including machinery, electronics, and construction materials. The political impact of China on South Africa is primarily evident through the expansion of economic and diplomatic relations. By establishing infrastructure projects and increasing investments in the country, China aims to enhance its influence across Africa. The close ties between the two nations, highlighted by their participation in organizations such as BRICS and G77, reflect China's commitment to bolstering South Africa's economic and political standing. These connections position China as a strategic partner and a crucial source of funding for the development of South African infrastructure. As a global power, the United States has sought to maintain its influence in South Africa, though recent years have posed challenges. During the Obama administration, relations were strengthened, reflecting his African roots. However, subsequent political changes in the U.S. have negatively impacted these relations. The U.S. has worked to protect its interests in South Africa by providing economic aid and development programs. Nevertheless, South Africa's growing ties with China and Russia have presented challenges for the United States, affecting its role in the country. Conclusion The competition between China and the United States has produced both positive and negative effects on South Africa's relations. The article outlines 18 impacts stemming from this rivalry, emphasizing the complexities of balancing these influences while pursuing national interests. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S.-China rivalry has become a central aspect of international relations, with Africa emerging as a crucial battleground for influence. South Africa, significantly affected by this competition, serves as an important case study for analyzing the economic, cultural, and political impacts of Sino-American rivalry from 2010 to 2023. This research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of South Africa’s policies while identifying opportunities for national development amid the competition. Additionally, it offers insights for South African policymakers on how to optimize benefits from this rivalry and informs Iran about leveraging its relationships with South Africa to enhance its influence in Africa and foster strategic cooperation. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Economic competition, political and cultural competition, China, the United States, South Africa | ||
| مراجع | ||
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