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تحلیل دلایل اشتیاق و رویگردانی مسافران جهت سفر مجدد به جزیره کیش | ||
| نشریه گردشگری شهری | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 12، شماره 4، دی 1404، صفحه 25-39 اصل مقاله (1023.18 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی مستقل | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jut.2025.385669.1244 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| محمد علی سیاه سرانی کجوری* | ||
| گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تمایل به بازدید مجدد یکی از موضوعات تحقیقاتی کلیدی در حوزه مقاصد گردشگری محسوب میشود. هدف پژوهش حاضر تحلیل دلایل اشتیاق و رویگردانی مسافران جهت سفر مجدد به جزیره کیش است، لذا نظرات گردشگران در سایت "هلوکیش دات کام" استخراج و تجزیهوتحلیلهای لازم روی آنها با روش آمیخته صورت پذیرفت. در گام کیفی با استفاده از تحلیل محتوا، تمامی نظرات مورد بازخوانی و مقولات و زیر مقولات به تفکیک گردشگران مشتاق و رویگردان استخراج شد. در گام کمی، ابتدا نظرات گردشگران به سه گروه مثبت، منفی و خنثی تقسیم و فرایند پالایش و پاکسازی دادهها انجام و ابر کلمات برای گردشگران مشتاق و رویگردان از سفر مجدد ترسیم شد، سپس بهمنظور دستیابی به بهترین مدل با بالاترین دقت جهت پیشبینی رفتار گردشگران، از سه روش شبکههای عصبی مصنوعی، درخت تصمیم و بیز ساده بر روی دادهها مدلسازی صورت پذیرفت. نتایج نشان داد مدل بیز ساده بالاترین میزان دقت یعنی 31/79 جهت پیشبینی رفتار گردشگران را به دست آورد. در مرحله بعد با استفاده از قواعد وابستگی، قواعد اگر-آنگاه به تفکیک گردشگران مشتاق و رویگردان استخراج شد. نتایج نشان داد مهمترین دلایل عدم بازگشت مجدد به جزیره کیش به کیفیت نامناسب هتلها، هزینههای بالا و عدم تناسب قیمتها با خدمات و کیفیت، شرایط بهداشتی و ایمنی نامطلوب، نارضایتی از کیفیت تفریحات و سرگرمیها برمیگردد. از سوی دیگر مسافرانی که تمایل به سفر مجدد به جزیره کیش دارند تجربه مثبت آنها عمدتاً به کیفیت و دسترسی به امکانات رفاهی و تفریحی، برخورد حرفهای و دوستانه کارکنان هتلها و محیط دلنشین و آرام جزیره برمیگردد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تحلیل احساسات؛ گردشگران رویگردان؛ گردشگران مشتاق | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Analysis of the Reasons for Travelers' Intentions and Reluctance to Revisit Kish Island | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mohammad Ali Siahsarani Kojuri | ||
| Department of Management and Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| A B S T R A C T The intention to revisit is one of the key research topics in tourism destinations and has been considered a prominent behavioral intention. The present study aims to analyze the reasons for the enthusiasm and return of travelers to Kish Island, so the opinions of tourists on the "Hellokish.com" website were extracted, and the necessary analyses were performed using a mixed method. In the qualitative step, all the opinions were reviewed using content analysis, and categories and subcategories were extracted to separate enthusiastic and turned-away tourists. In the quantitative step, tourists' opinions were divided into three groups as positive, negative, and neutral. The data were filtered and cleaned, and super words were drawn for enthusiastic and turned-away tourists returning to travel. Then, to achieve the best model with the highest accuracy to predict the behavior of tourists, three methods of artificial neural networks, decision trees, and naive Bayes were used to model the data. The results showed that the model built through simple Bayes achieved the highest accuracy, i.e., 31.79, the best predictor of tourist behavior. In the next step, dependency rules were used to extract if-then rules that differentiate enthusiastic and reluctant tourists. The results showed that the most important reasons for not returning to Kish Island are the poor quality of hotels, high costs and the lack of proportion between prices and services and quality, poor health and safety conditions, and dissatisfaction with the quality of entertainment and recreation. On the other hand, for travelers willing to revisit Kish Island, their positive experience is mainly due to the quality and access to amenities and recreational facilities, the professional and friendly attitude of hotel staff, and the pleasant and peaceful environment of the island. Extended Abstract Introduction For many countries, tourism is an important source of business activity, income, employment, and international exchange. Many developed countries receive a large annual income from this tourism industry, so other countries are interested in expanding this industry so that the government can make a profit. Still, a country needs to develop the right infrastructure to meet the needs of tourists and provide them with the right facilities. This can be relatively profitable for the industry. In the current era, due to the spread of social networks, tourists can easily transfer their positive and negative experiences to other tourists through electronic word of mouth. Customers tend to search for more information before making any decision. The best way to do this is to search for reviews and opinions published by other consumers online. This process is known as electronic word of mouth. Methodology The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical, and in terms of research strategy, it is a mixed sequential and exploratory type and in the form of a cross-sectional study. The research data is related to the opinions expressed online by travelers to Kish Island on the hellokish.com site in the period from the first of March 2023 to the end of October 2024, which was extracted and collected through the Instant Data Scraper plugin. In order to achieve the study's objectives and address its questions, two sequential qualitative and quantitative steps were employed. In the qualitative step, the philosophy of interpretivism and the inductive approach were used in terms of applied research strategy, qualitative strategy, content analysis method, and cross-sectional studies. The research data were collected from the aforementioned site, implemented in MAXQDA20 software, analyzed, and categorized. The Crisp data mining process and Rapid miner data mining software were used in the quantitative step. The research population includes travelers who expressed their opinions about their travel experience to this island on the hellokish.com website. Due to the use of all data extracted from user comments during the aforementioned period, sampling was unnecessary, and all relevant data was included in the analyses. Results and discussion According to the data extracted from the opinions of travelers on the hellokish.com website and the analyses conducted in the qualitative and quantitative sections, the results indicate significant differences in the travelers' experience and the factors that cause their desire or reluctance to return to Kish Island. What distinguishes the present study and its results from previous studies is that the categories and subcategories extracted from the opinions of travelers who have turned away and are eager to return to Kish Island, as well as the dependency rules (if-then) extracted from a multitude of travelers' opinions on social networks, were selected and, due to the anonymity of the individuals in presenting their opinions and their presentation without bias and bias and the absence of an interviewer or other external factor, their authenticity can be largely assured. On the other hand, the present study focused on processing and discovering rules and patterns from seemingly abundant and less-considered data in previous studies that, despite being important, had not been considered. The results showed that the most important reasons for not returning to Kish Island are the poor quality of hotels, high costs and the lack of proportion between prices and services and quality, poor health and safety conditions, and dissatisfaction with the quality of entertainment and recreation. On the other hand, travelers willing to revisit Kish Island attribute their positive experience mainly to the quality and appropriate access to amenities and recreational facilities, the professional and friendly attitude of hotel staff, and the pleasant and peaceful environment of the island. Conclusion The analysis of the research results indicates that Kish Island is capable of creating a peaceful and enjoyable experience for tourists, especially if high-quality and reasonably priced services are maintained at a high level. Travelers who are eager to return have mentioned the high quality of hotels, cleanliness of rooms, varied breakfast, and easy access to shopping centers and recreational activities. Also, the island's peaceful atmosphere and beautiful coastal nature are other attractions of this destination that encourage many travelers to return. Improving the quality of hotels and amenities is of great importance. Renovating hotels, especially worn-out hotels with inadequate facilities, and improving the level of cleanliness and service standards can have a positive impact on the traveler experience. Furthermore, special attention should be paid to improving the health and safety conditions of hotels and other recreational places so travelers can use these facilities more confidently. In addition, controlling prices and their proportion to the quality of services should be prioritized. Proper policies regarding the pricing of services, especially food, transportation, and entertainment, can increase traveler satisfaction and reduce dissatisfaction. It is suggested that prices be adjusted to match the quality of services and that discounts and special packages be considered to attract more tourists. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Sentiment analysis, Kish Island, avoidant tourists, eager tourists | ||
| مراجع | ||
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سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب