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شبیهسازی بارش-رواناب در حوضه آبریز تجن تحت تأثیر سناریوهای مختلف تغییر اقلیم | ||
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
دوره 56، شماره 1، فروردین 1404، صفحه 187-205 اصل مقاله (2.62 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2024.376077.669709 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
فاطمه حیدری چناری1؛ رامین فضل اولی* 2؛ اسماعیل نیکزاد طهرانی3 | ||
1گروه مهندسی اب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران. | ||
2عضو هیأت علمی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران. | ||
3دفتر مطالعات پایه شرکت آب منطقهای استان مازندران، ساری، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
تعیین و پیشبینی رواناب گامی بسیار مهم در بهرهبرداری مناسب از منابع آب است. هدف این پژوهش، واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل HEC-HMS و همچنین شبیهسازی بارش-رواناب برای سری دادههای پیوسته در حوضه آبریز تجن براساس سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم بوده است. در این پژوهش، از دادههای ثبت شده طی سالهای 1388-1381 برای مرحله واسنجی و از دادههای ثبت شده طی سالهای 1395-1389 در مرحله صحتسنجی استفاده شد. نتایج واسنجی مدل نشان داد که ضریب همبستگی میان مقادیر دبی مشاهداتی و شبیهسازی شده برابر 81/0 و ضریب ناش-ساتکلیف معادل 68/0 بوده است که بیانگر تطابق مناسب میان دادههای مذکور میباشد. همچنین در مرحله صحتسنجی، شاخص همبستگی و ضریب ناش-ساتکلیف به ترتیب برابر با 80/0 و 63/0 بوده و تأیید مینماید که مدل برآورد خوبی از مشاهدات را نشان میدهد. در مرحله بعد، مقادیر دادهها در مقیاس زمانی روزانه برای دوره 1428-1400 در مدل بارگزاری و رواناب حوضه برای این دوره شبیهسازی شد. نتایج نشان داد که میزان دبی در دورهی آینده نسبت به دورهی پایه تحت هر دو سناریوی تغییر اقلیم RCP 8.5 و RCP 2.6 به شدت کاهش یافته و فقط در سناریوی RCP 8.5 و آن هم به میزان جزئی در ماههای آگوست، سپتامبر، اکتبر و نوامبر نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش دبی رخ خواهد داد. بهطور کلی نتایج شبیهسازی نشان داد که میزان دبی تابستان و پاییز تحت سناریوی RCP 8.5 افزایش بیشتری را نسبت به سناریوی RCP 2.6 خواهد داشت. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
دبی روزانه؛ رواناب؛ مدل هیدرولوژیکی؛ RCP 2.6؛ RCP 8.5 | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff in Tajan Basin under Different Scenarios of Climate Change | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Fatemeh Heidari Chenari1؛ Ramin Fazloula2؛ Esmaeil Nikzad Tehrani3 | ||
1Water Eng. Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. | ||
2Faculty Member, Water Engineering Department, Agricultural Eng. College, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. | ||
3Mazandaran Regional Water Company Studies Office, Sari, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Determining and predicting runoff is a crucial step in the proper use of water resources. This research aims to calibrate and validate the HEC-HMS model and simulate rainfall-runoff for continuous data series in the Tajan basin based on climate change Scenarios. In this research, the data recorded during the years 2002-2009 were used for the calibration stage and the data recorded during the years 2010-2016 were used for the verification stage. The results of model calibration showed that the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated discharge values was equal to 0.81 and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was equal to 0.68, which indicates a good match between the mentioned data. Also, in the verification stage, the correlation index and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were equal to 0.80 and 0.63, respectively, confirming that the model shows a good estimate for the observations. In the next step, data values in the daily time scale for the period of 2020-2049 were loaded in the model and basin runoff was simulated for this period. The results showed that the amount of discharge in the future period compared to the base period would decrease strongly under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change scenarios, and only in the RCP 8.5 scenario, the discharge will increase a little compared to the base period in August, September, October and November. The simulation results showed that the amount of discharge in summer and autumn under the RCP 8.5 scenario will increase more than in the RCP 2.6 scenario. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Daily Discharge, Hydrologic Model, Runoff, RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5 | ||
مراجع | ||
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