پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 163 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,761 |
| تعداد مقالات | 72,822 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 131,614,672 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 103,406,412 |
آیندۀ رهبری در سازمان‌های رسانه‌ای در بستر تحولات فناورانه (افق 2030) | ||
| بررسی‌های مدیریت رسانه | ||
| دوره 4، شماره 1، 1404، صفحه 53-82 اصل مقاله (1.09 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/mmr.2025.388817.1149 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حمیدرضا آل محمد1؛ محمد مهدی مولایی* 2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مدیریت رسانه، دانشکده علوم ارتباطات اجتماعی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2استادیار، گروه مدیریت رسانه، دانشکده علوم ارتباطات، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف: هدف این پژوهش، بررسی آیندۀ رهبری در سازمان‌های رسانه‌ای با توجه به تحولات فناورانه تا افق ۲۰۳۰ است. با استفاده از مدل پنج‌عامل آیندۀ پیلکان (ثابت‌ها، روندها، تناقضات، عدم‌قطعیت‌ها و شگفتی‌سازها) و بهره‌گیری از نظریه‌های نوین رهبری دیجیتال، پیچیده و توزیعی، تلاش شده است تا چشم‌اندازی ترکیبی از چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های پیش‌روی رهبران رسانه‌ای ترسیم شود. روش: این پژوهش در چارچوب آینده‌نگاری، از روش تحلیل اسنادی بهره برده است. داده‌ها از منابع معتبر علمی شامل کتاب‌ها، مقاله‌های پژوهشی و گزارش‌های بین‌المللی گردآوری و با روش تحلیل مضمون قیاسی، بر مبنای مدل پیلکان تحلیل و دسته‌بندی شده‌اند. یافته‌ها: در تحلیل عوامل آینده، در بخش ثابت‌ها مشخص شد که موفقیت رهبران رسانه‌ای، به حفظ هویت سازمانی، پایبندی به اخلاق حرفه‌ای و ایجاد اعتماد پایدار نزد مخاطبان وابسته است. در روندها، رشد ابزارهای هوشمند مانند چت‌بات‌های تحریریه و تحلیلگرهای داده، نقش رهبر را به مدیر فناوری ـ ارتباطی تبدیل می‌کند. در میان تناقض‌ها، هم‌زمانی فشار بر تولید محتوای سریع با ضرورت حفظ کیفیت و دقت به چشم می‌خورد. در عدم‌قطعیت‌ها، واکنش مبهم کارکنان به جایگزینی انسانی با الگوریتم، چالشی جدی تلقی می‌شود. در شگفتی‌سازها، احتمال تصمیم‌گیری تحریریه توسط هوش مصنوعی، شکل جدیدی از رهبری را پیش‌بینی می‌کند. نتیجه‌گیری: رهبران رسانه‌ای برای حفظ و ارتقای نقش راهبردی خود، باید توانایی ترکیب مهارت‌های انسانی با ظرفیت‌های فناورانه را داشته باشند. این تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که مدیریت موفق آینده، مستلزم تلفیق رهبری تحول‌گرا با بینش آینده‌نگر است و به بازطراحی سازوکارهای سازمانی، اخلاقی و فناورانه نیاز دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| مدل رهبری رسانه؛ آینده‌نگاری؛ آینده‌پژوهی؛ فناوری‌های نوین رسانه‌ای؛ آینده سازمان‌های رسانه‌ای | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Future of Leadership in Media Organizations in the Context of Technological Developments (Horizon 2030) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamid Reza AleMohammad1؛ Mohammad Mahdi Mowlaei2 | ||
| 1MSc., Department of Media Management, Faculty of Social Communication Sciences, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Assistant Prof., Department of Media Management, Faculty of Communication Sciences, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Objective In the face of rapid technological advancements, media organizations are undergoing fundamental transformations that impact not only their content production and distribution mechanisms but also their internal leadership structures. This study aims to explore the future of leadership in media organizations by the year 2030, focusing on how emerging technologies reshape leadership roles, competencies, and responsibilities. To systematically analyze this future landscape, the research adopts Pilkan’s Five-Factor Futures Model, which categorizes driving forces of the future into five analytical dimensions: Constants, Trends, Contradictions, Uncertainties, and Wildcards. The novelty of this research lies in combining this futures framework with contemporary leadership theories such as Digital Leadership, Distributed Leadership, and Complexity Leadership, enabling a multidimensional examination of both technological disruptions and leadership adaptation. This integrated approach aims to go beyond conventional forecasting by identifying deep structural forces, strategic tensions, and non-linear possibilities that future media leaders will need to navigate, ranging from automation and AI governance to ethical dilemmas, decentralized decision-making, and organizational redesign. Research Methodology The research is conducted within the futures studies framework, utilizing a documentary qualitative method based on deductive thematic analysis. The data set comprises over 40 scholarly sources, including peer-reviewed journal articles, books, think-tank reports, and international policy documents published between 2015 and 2023. The analysis follows these key steps: Selection of credible sources relevant to media leadership, technological change, and strategic foresight. Coding of texts using predefined categories based on Pilkan’s model. Thematic categorization of extracted insights into the five futures factors. Interpretive analysis grounded in modern leadership theories, assessing the implications of each factor. A visual flowchart of the analytic process was developed to ensure systematic classification, and triangulation of sources was used to reinforce reliability, especially for overlapping factors that appeared in more than one domain. Findings The findings are organized into five major categories aligned with Pilkan’s model: Constants These are enduring factors shaping media leadership regardless of technological shifts. The study identified key constants such as: The need for effective leadership that balances vision, ethics, and adaptability. The importance of public trust, transparency, and professional integrity. The role of regulatory frameworks, which remain essential even as platforms evolve. Commitment to organizational values and cultural identity. These constants echo foundational leadership traits but are increasingly expected to be enacted within dynamic and hybrid work environments. Trends Several irreversible technological trends are shaping the leadership landscape, including: Integration of AI in editorial decision-making and content personalization. Big data analytics for real-time audience insight and strategic planning. Expansion of immersive media (e.g., AR/VR) transforming user engagement. Rising emphasis on cybersecurity and ethical content governance. These trends demand a transition from traditional hierarchical leadership to data-driven, agile, and cross-functional leadership styles that are more collaborative and adaptive to fast-changing digital contexts. Contradictions The study highlighted critical tensions media leaders must manage: The paradox between innovation and sustainability—rapid tech adoption vs. long-term ecological and social responsibility. Conflict between freedom of expression and content moderation, intensified by misinformation and platform politics. Tension between human judgment and algorithmic decision-making. Struggle between globalization and local identity preservation in leadership communication. Such contradictions require leaders to demonstrate ethical sensitivity, strategic flexibility, and negotiation skills across stakeholder groups, while maintaining their credibility and authority. Uncertainties Future trajectories remain unclear in areas such as: Whether AI-driven leadership tools will enhance or replace human decision-making. The employee response to organizational transformation—resistance or innovation? Volatility in advertising markets driven by platform monopolies and data privacy laws. The evolution of global media regulation—will national sovereignty prevail or global harmonization emerge? These uncertainties call for adaptive leadership capacities, foresight literacy, and scenario-based strategic planning to reduce vulnerability and enhance organizational agility. Wildcards Several unexpected and high-impact possibilities emerged, including: The rise of non-human leaders—AI agents making editorial decisions independently. Fully automated newsrooms that challenge traditional leadership hierarchies. Breakthrough communication technologies (e.g., quantum or unhackable systems). Ethical crises caused by AI interacting with vulnerable audiences. These wildcards could radically reshape leadership roles, structures, and accountability systems, demanding readiness for disruptive and transformative futures. Discussion & Conclusion The study demonstrates that the future of media leadership is neither linear nor easily predictable. Instead, it unfolds at the intersection of enduring leadership values, accelerating technological change, and complex socio-political dynamics. The research contributes to theory by synthesizing futures thinking with contemporary leadership models, offering a novel framework for navigating strategic media transitions. Practically, it suggests that media organizations should: Develop leadership readiness indices to measure adaptability. Redesign leadership training based on uncertainty management and scenario thinking. Create interdisciplinary innovation hubs for joint strategy development between media, technology, and ethics professionals. Establish real-time futures monitoring systems for tracking weak signals and emerging challenges. Ultimately, transformational leadership—augmented by foresight, ethical intelligence, and systems thinking—will be the cornerstone of resilient media organizations capable of thriving amid disruption and complexity. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Media leadership model, Foresight, Futures studies, Emerging media technologies, The future of media organizations | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
آل محمد، حمیدرضا و اسدی، عباس (1403). آینده روزنامه‌نگاری و تأثیر هوش مصنوعی بر محتوای رسانه‌ای. فصلنامه مطالعات فضای مجازی و رسانه‌های اجتماعی، 1(2)، 73-103.
احمدی نیای کویه، زهرا (1403). مدیریت تغییر در نظام آموزش و پرورش. فصلنامه اختلالات جنسی و روان‌شناختی، 2 (2)، 1-22.
احمدی، فریدون و شریفی، رامین (1403). بررسی تأثیر رهبری دیجیتال بر عملکرد سازمان‌های دولتی (مطالعه موردی: کارکنان سازمان جهاد کشاورزی استان کردستان). اولین کنفرانس ملی پژوهش‌های نوظهور در مدیریت و حقوق با رویکرد شعار سال، تهران.
اسماعیلی علیائی، متین و کهریزی، امیدعلی (1403). تأثیر اشتراک دانش مبتنی بر فناوری بر عملکرد کارکنان با اثرات تعدیلگر آموزش، پشتیبانی و رهبری. بیستمین کنفرانس ملی اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، شیروان.
جلیلوند، محمدرضا (1402). نقش مدیریت تحول‌گرا و عدالت توزیعی سازمانی در ارتقای تاب‌آوری کارکنان سازمان‌های رسانه‌ای (مورد مطالعه: خبرگزاری‌های اینترنتی). بررسهای مدیریت رسانه، 2(3)، 299-317.
حاتمی، فاطمه؛ حیدری، کوثر؛ حاجی عزیزی، عارفه و مختارپور، نازلی (1403). حاکمیت و رهبری دیجیتال. اولین همایش ملی حسابداری و مدیریت کسب‌وکار در دنیای دیجیتال، قائنات.
فرحبخش، جمشید (1400). بررسی تأثیر سبک رهبری تحول‌آفرین بر اجرای موفقیت‌آمیز برنامههای فناوری اطلاعات در سازمان. چهارمین همایش ملی توسعه علوم فناوری‌های نوین در مدیریت، حسابداری و کامپیوتر، تهران.
فرهنگی، علی اکبر و قاپچی، هومن (1401). مرور نظام‌مند پژوهش‌های حوزه آینده‌پژوهی رسانه با تمرکز بر مفاهیم نوظهور فناوری‌های نوین. بررسهای مدیریت رسانه، 1 (2)، 168-188.
کربلایی حاجی اوغلی، حسین (1395). طراحی الگوی توسعه رهبری استراتژیک، در سازمان‌های رسانه‌ای ایران. ماهنامه مدیریت رسانه، (28)، 7-20.
نوری، مژگان؛ شاه‌حسینی، محمدعلی؛ شامی زنجانی، مهدی و عابدین، بابک (1398). طراحی چارچوب مفهومی رهبری تحول دیجیتال در سازمان‌های ایرانی. فصلنامه مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی در نظامهای آموزشی، 12 (2)، 211- 242.
References Ahmadi, F. & Sharifi, R (2024). Investigating the impact of digital leadership on the performance of government organizations (case study: employees of the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Kurdistan Province). The first national conference of emerging researches in management and law with the approach of the slogan of the year, Tehran. (in Persian) Ahmadinejai Koya, Z. (2024). Change management in the education system. Sexual and Psychological Disorders Quarterly, 2(2), 1-22. (in Persian) Al Mohammad, H.R. & Asadi, A. (2024). The future of journalism and the impact of artificial intelligence on media. Cyberspace and Social Media Studies Quarterly, 1(2), 73-103. https://doi.org/10.22083/CSSMS.2024.485512.1012. (in Persian) Amabile, T. M. (1996). Creativity in Context: Update to the Social Psychology of Creativity. Routledge. Avolio, B.J., Sosik, J.J., Kahai, S.S. & Baker, B. (2014). E-leadership: Re-examining transformations in leadership source and transmission. The Leadership Quarterly, 25(1), 105–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2013.11.003 Bass, B. M. & Avolio, B. J. (1994). Improving Organizational Effectiveness through Transformational Leadership. Sage Publications. Bass, B. M. (1990). From transactional to transformational leadership: Learning to share the vision. Organizational Dynamics, 18(3), 19–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/0090-2616(90)90061-S Boin, A., Hart, P., Stern, E. & Sundelius, B. (2006). The politics of crisis management: Public leadership under pressure. Cambridge University Press. Brown, T., Mann, B., Ryder, N., Subbiah, M., Kaplan, J., Dhariwal, P., ... & Amodei, D. (2020). Language models are few-shot learners. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 33, 1877-1901. Burns, J. M. (1978). Leadership. Harper & Row. Chesney, R. & Citron, D. K. (2019). Deepfakes and the new disinformation war: The coming age of post-truth geopolitics. Foreign Affairs, 98, 147. Retrieved from: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-12-11/deepfakes-and-new-disinformation-war. Choi, S. H., Jung, K. & Noh, Y. (2015). Virtual Reality Applications in Entertainment. Journal of Visualization, 18(2), 153–174. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12650-015-0271-3. Davenport, T. H. & Harris, J. G. (2017). Competing on Analytics: Updated, with a NewIntroduction: The New Science of Winning. Harvard Business Review Press. Esmaili Aliai, M., Kehrizi, O. A. (1403). The effect of technology-based knowledge sharing on employee performance with the moderating effects of training, support and leadership, 20th National Conference on Economics, Management and Accounting, Shirvan. https://civilica.com/doc/2100424. (in Persian) Evans, D. S. & Schmalensee, R. (2016). Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms. Harvard Business Review Press. Ezzatzadeh, M., Alimohammad, R., Sajjadi Jaghargh, S.A. & Mozaffari, A. (2024). Studying the requirements of the digital interactive and transformational model in the virtual space at the Islamic Republic of Iran broadcasting organization. International Journal of Digital Content Management (IJDCM), 5(9), 35-62. Farah Bakhsh, J. (2021). Investigating the impact of transformational leadership style on the successful implementation of information technology programs in the organization, the fourth national conference on the development of new technologies in management, accounting and computer sciences, Tehran. https://civilica.com/doc/1317316. (in Persian) Farhangi, A.A. & Qapchi, H. (2022). The systematic review of the media futures studies focusing on the emerging technologies buzzwords. Media Management Review, 1(2), 168-188. (in Persian) Freedman, D. (2018). Populism and media policy failure. European Journal of Communication, 33(6), 604-618. https://doi.org/10.1177/026732311879015. Hatami, F., Heydari, K., Haji Azizi, A. & Mukhtarpour, N. (2024). Digital governance and leadership. The first national conference on accounting and business management in the digital world, Qaenaat. https://civilica.com/doc/2117551. (in Persian) Heifetz, R. & Linsky, M. (2002). Leadership on the Line: Staying Alive through the Dangers of Leading. Harvard Business Review Press. Jalilvand, M.R. (2023). The role of transformational leadership and distributive justice on the improvement of employees’ resilience in the media organizations (Case of internet news agencies). Media Management Review, 2(3), 299-317. (in Persian) Karbalai Haji Oghli, H. (2015). Designing a strategic leadership development model in Iranian media organizations. Media Management Monthly, 28, 7-20. (in Persian) Kiron, D., Prentice, P. K. & Ferguson, R. B. (2014). The Analytics Mandate. MIT Sloan Management Review, 55(4), 1-25. Kotter, J. P. (1996). Leading Change. Harvard Business Review Press. Küng, L. (2017). Strategic Management in the Media: Theory to Practice. SAGE Publications. Lewis, S. C. & Molyneux, L. (2018). A decade of research on social media and journalism: Assumptions, blind spots, and a way forward. Media and communication, 6(4), 11-23. DOI:10.17645/mac.v6i4.1562 Marr, B. (2016). Big Data in Practice: How 45 Successful Companies Used Big Data Analytics to Deliver Extraordinary Results. Wiley. Mowlaei, M. M., Talebian, H. & Jahanshahi, O. (2021). Futures Studies of Effective Factors on IRIB’s Activity in Internet (Iran 2025 Perspective). Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies in Communication and Media, 3(10), 40-11. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.26764091.1399.3.10.1.4 (in Persian) Napoli, P. M. (2019). Social Media and the Public Interest: Media Regulation in the Disinformation Age. Columbia University Press. Nijboer, F., Clausen, J., Allison, B. Z. & Haselager, P. (2013). The Asilomar Survey: Stakeholders’ Opinions on Ethical Issues Related to Brain-Computer Interfacing. Neuroethics, 6(3), 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12152-011-9132-6 Nuri, M., Shah Hosseini, M. A., Shami Zanjani, M. & Abedin, B. (2018). Designing a conceptual framework for leading digital transformation in Iranian organizations. Quarterly Journal of Management and Planning in Educational Systems, 12(2), 211-242. DOI:10.29252/MPES.12.2.211. (in Persian) Ottman, J. A. (2011). The New Rules of Green Marketing: Strategies, Tools, and Inspiration for Sustainable Branding. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. Palma-Moreira, A., Silva, M. M. & Silva, M. J. (2023). Leading in the Digital Age: The Role of Leadership in Organizational Digital Transformation. Administrative Sciences, 13(2), 43. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci13020043 Paris, B. & Donovan, J. (2019). Deepfakes and Cheap Fakes: The Manipulation of Audio and Visual Evidence. https://datasociety.net/library/deepfakes-and-cheap-fakes/ Picard, R. G. (2011). The Economics and Financing of Media Companies. Fordham University Press. Plaisance, P. L. (2018). Media Ethics: Key Principles for Responsible Practice. Sage Publications. Reuters Institute. (2023). Future Trends in Media Management. Retrieved from: https://reutersinstitute.com. Silverman, C. (2019). Verification Handbook: A Definitive Guide to Verifying Digital Content for Emergency Coverage. European Journalism Centre. Spillane, J. P. (2006). Distributed Leadership. Jossey-Bass. Tapscott, D. & Tapscott, A. (2016). Blockchain Revolution: How the Technology Behind Bitcoin Is Changing Money, Business, and the World. Penguin. Tegmark, M. (2017). Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. Knopf. Uhl-Bien, M., Marion, R. & McKelvey, B. (2007). Complexity Leadership Theory: Shifting leadership from the industrial age to the knowledge era. The Leadership Quarterly, 18(4), 298–318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2007.04.002 van Dijck, J., Poell, T. & de Waal, M. (2018). The Platform Society: Public Values in a Connective World. Oxford University Press. West, D. M. (2019). The Future of Work: Robots, AI, and Automation. Brookings Institution Press. Westerman, G., Bonnet, D. & McAfee, A. (2014). Leading Digital: Turning Technology into Business Transformation. Harvard Business Review Press. Williamson, B. (2023). The Social life of AI in Education. International Journal of Artificial Intelligence in Education, 34(1), 97-104. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s40593-023-00342-5 Witschge, T., & Deuze, M. (2020). From suspicion to wonder in journalism and communication research. Journalism & mass communication quarterly, 97(2), 360-375. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077699020912385 Yener Kara, U. & Çetinkaya Yarımçam, E. (2024). An Interview with Christian Fuchs on Communication and Media Studies. Moment Journa, 1(1), 11-23. https://doi.org/10.17572/mj2024.1.11-23 Yukl, G. (2013). Leadership in Organizations. Pearson Education. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 196 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 118 |
||
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب