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بررسی تاثیر شاخص نوسان جنوبی (SOI) بر بارش و رطوبت نسبی نقاط مختلف کشور ایران | ||
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
دوره 56، شماره 3، خرداد 1404، صفحه 665-684 اصل مقاله (2 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2025.385089.669830 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علیرضا سعادت مقدسی1؛ زهرا آقاشریعتمداری* 2 | ||
1گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران | ||
2استادیار/گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران | ||
چکیده | ||
اقلیم حاصل واکنشهای جو و اقیانوس با یکدیگر است که به صورت سیل، رانش زمین، رویدادهای حدی یا فرین، خودنمائی میکند. شاخصهای دورپیوندی از این دسته میباشند. در این پژوهش اثرات شاخص(SOI) Southern Oscillation Index بر دو مولفه بارش و رطوبت نسبی در 21 ایستگاه سینوپتیک اصلی در کشور ایران در یک دوره 30 ساله با استفاده از روش آنالیز تحلیل عاملی به همراه 12 شاخص دور پیوندی و دو متغیر وابسته مورد تحقیق و بررسی قرار گرفته است. با توجه به ماتریس همبستگی دادههای آنالیز تحلیل عاملی ، ارتباط بین اینکه کدام دور پیوندی اثر بیشتری را در بررسی همزمان مولفههای جوی دارد را مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار داده و مشخص شد نوسان جنوبی نقش بیشتری را نسبت به سایر شاخصها داشته اشت. دادهها به صورت میانگینهای سه ماهه ماه اکتبر تا ژوئن مد نظر قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان دهنده تاثیر متفاوت شاخص نوسان جنوبی در ایستگاههای مختلف است. نتایج نشان داد که تعدادی از ایستگاهها در نقاط مختلف رابطه معنی داری را با شاخص نشان ندادند. بالاترین میزان همبستگی شاخص با مولفههای بارش و رطوبت نسبی مربوط به ایستگاه شیراز و با میزان همبستگی 58 درصد محاسبه شده است. اقلیم متفاوت این منطقه خصوصا در نواحی جنوبی آن از دیگر نتایج بارز این پژوهش است اگرچه این منطقه با تنوع آب وهوایی که دارد بیشتر تحت تاثیر جریانات موسمی هند و دریای مدیترانه است توصیه میگردد در پژوهشهای اینده اهیمت تغییر اقلیم و یکی از جلوههای آن گرمایش جهانی مد نظر قرار گیرد . | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
شاخص دورپیوندی؛ تنوع اقلیم؛ بارش و رطوبت نسبی؛ ایستگاه سینوپتیک | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Impact Analysis of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on Precipitation and Relative Humidity across Various Regions of Iran | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Alireza Saadatmoghaddasi1؛ Zahra Aghashariatmadari2 | ||
1irrigation & reclamation engrg. dept. university of Tehran, Karaj, iran. | ||
2Associate Prof., Irrigation & Reclamation Engrg. Dept. University of Tehran Karaj, Iran. | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
The climate is the result of interactions between the atmosphere and the oceans, manifesting in phenomena such as landslides, extreme events. This study investigates the effects of the Southern Oscillation Index on two key variables: precipitation and relative humidity, across 21 principal synoptic stations in Iran over a 30-year period. Utilizing factor analysis alongside twelve teleconnection indices, this research aims to elucidate the intricate relationships between these climatic factors. Based on the correlation matrix derived from the factor analysis, the eigenvalue magnitudes and the percentage of variance elucidate the extent to which various teleconnection indices influence the simultaneous assessment of atmospheric components. The analysis revealed that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) exerts a more pronounced effect compared to other indices. Data were evaluated as three-month averages during the rainfall season, specifically from October to June. Notably, several stations exhibited no significant correlation with the index. The highest correlation was observed at the Shiraz station, with a correlation coefficient of 58%. The climatic characteristics of this region, particularly in its southern areas, represent another significant finding of this research. Although this region is predominantly influenced by the Indian monsoon and Mediterranean currents, the Southern Oscillation Index—resulting from the pressure differences at sea level between Tahiti and Darwin in the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean—also exerts a substantial impact on the precipitation and relative humidity of the area. It is recommended to consider the importance of climate change and one of its manifestations, global warming, in future researches, are considered. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
teleconnections, different climate, precipitation and relative humidity, synoptic station | ||
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