پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 163 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,826 |
| تعداد مقالات | 73,628 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 135,014,295 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 105,329,870 |
جایگاه تحریم‌های اتحادیۀ اروپا و ایالات متحد علیه روسیه در بحران اوکراین | ||
| مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
| دوره 18، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 35، شهریور 1404، صفحه 361-390 اصل مقاله (1.16 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2025.378503.450233 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| فاطمه محروق* 1؛ فاطمه سنیسل2 | ||
| 1استادیار، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف این نوشتار بررسی شبکۀ عوامل مؤثر بر بحران اوکراین و تعیین جایگاه تحریم علیه روسیه در آن است. ما به‌دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که تحریم‌های اتحادیۀ اروپا و ایالات متحد علیه روسیه چه جایگاهی در شبکۀ متغیرهای مؤثر بر فرایند بحران اوکراین داشته است؟ فرضیۀ پژوهش این است که کاربست تحریم به‌عنوان متغیر خطرپذیر (دووجهی) در شبکۀ عوامل مؤثر بر بحران اوکراین با تقویت شریک‌های جدید اقتصادی و سیاسی روسیه سبب ادامۀ بحران شده است. مدل جامع مدیریت بحران مایکل برچر به‌دلیل تأکید بر تأثیر شبکۀ متغیرها بر روند بحران، به‌عنوان پایۀ نظری انتخاب شده است. برای پاسخ به پرسش نوشتار از روش تحلیل آثار متقاطع استفاده می‌کنیم که تأثیر متقابل شبکۀ متغیرها را بررسی و جایگاه هر متغیر را براساس ارتباط با شبکۀ متغیرها مشخص می‌کند. ابزار پژوهش، پرسشنامه و نظر کارشناسان حوزۀ روسیه در مورد عوامل مؤثر بر بحران اوکراین است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که بحران خروجی ندارد. این مسئله مشخص می‌کند که از میان مراحل چهارگانه برچر، بحران همچنان در حال ادامه (اوج‌گرفتن) است. رویارویی روسیه و آمریکا به همراه استفاده از انرژی شیل و بسته‌شدن ذخایر ارزی روسیه مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار شناسایی شده‌اند که مشخص می‌کند از سوی دوطرف بحران، عاملی برای ادامۀ بحران وجود دارد. همچنین نتیجۀ نهایی نشان می‌دهد که تحریم‌ها در شبکۀ عوامل مؤثر بر بحران اوکراین تأثیری دوگانه داشته و ادامۀ آن ممکن است سبب افزایش بحران شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بحران بینالمللی؛ تحریم؛ آمریکا؛ اوکراین؛ روسیه | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Role of EU and US Sanctions against Russia in the Ukrainian Crisis | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Fatemeh Mahrough1؛ Fatemeh Sanisel2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| 2M.A Student in International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: The aim of this study is to examine the network of factors affecting the Ukrainian crisis and determine the place of sanctions against Russia in this network. In response to tensions and conflicts resulting from Russian policies and actions, Western countries have considered the use of economic sanctions as a key tool to confront this country, especially to limit its military and economic capabilities. These sanctions include restrictions on trade, investment, access to international financial markets and advanced technologies, especially those that directly contribute to increasing military capabilities. This targeted strategy is designed to put pressure on Russia, limit its military and economic development capabilities, prevent progress in its military programs and encourage Russia to reconsider its foreign and military policies. Research question: What factors have contributed to the escalation and continuation of this international crisis and what position do the EU and US sanctions against Russia have in the network of variables affecting the course of the Ukrainian crisis? Research hypothesis: The imposition of sanctions, as a (bi-faceted) risk variable, has perpetuated the crisis by strengthening Russia's new economic and political partners within the network of factors affecting the Ukrainian crisis. Methodology and theoretical framework: This paper adopts a mixed approach and uses the interaction analysis technique to examine the research objectives. In this regard, two types of effects, direct and indirect, are distinguished from each other. Since any changes in key variables affect the entire system, variables are separated from each other based on priority of their impact and are given attention accordingly. This is facilitated using the MICMAC (Multiplication Matrix Interaction Applied to Classification) software for interaction Analysis. The article follows its theoretical approach, namely Michael Brecher's crisis management model. Then, using a questionnaire distributed to specialists in international relations and Russian studies, it identifies variables at the micro and macro levels in the comprehensive crisis model to highlight the most important ones. Results and discussion: In this paper, the opinions of the 30 experts in the field of the Ukraine and Russia crisis were examined as a statistical society population and using MICMAC software as input, the main variables that play a major role in the developement of the system in the future were identified. Based on the software output, the variables can be analyzed as follows: - The determinant, contextual, and influential variables (in the upper left quadrant, in Figure 4,) are variables that have the highest level of influence on their variables and the lowest level of being influenced by them. The driving variable that exacerbates the crisis is the United States' action in freezing Russia's foreign reserves in response to the annexation of Crimea, which is recognized as the driving force behind the escalation of international crisis. - Variables identified as independent or leverage variables (in the lower left quadrant), are those with the least influence. Naturally, these variables have no analytical value and are considered unimportant in the system. - Variables with high sensitivity and low influence are in the lower right quadrant. These variables, known as the system's dependent variables, are of great importance because they undergo the greatest changes due to system changes. These variables do not themselves initiate changes in the system. - Variables in the upper right quadrant significantly affect the stability of the system. These variables have high sensitivity to both other variables and systemic changes and are important sources of system change. These variables are labeled as risk, binary or target variables. Risk variables related to long-running Ukrainian war and ongoing sanctions are key elements in the analysis of crisis. They not only affect the continuation of the crisis but also have the potential to exacerbate it. A protracted war leads to economic and human erosion on both sides, potentially inflicting significant damage that could take years to repair. Sanctions can lead to the creation of parallel financial systems and the search for new trading partners, ultimately increasing isolation or confrontation between global power blocs. - The most important system variables identified in the interaction analysis are those located in the square area at the center of the intersecting lines separating the quadrants and are known as regulatory variables. These variables have a balanced level of influence and impact and have high potential to manipulate parameters and manage the path of system changes. Since the crisis is ongoing and neither side is willing to reduce tensions, no regulatory variables have been identified in this section. These variables become more important during the crisis mitigation phase. Conclusion: The findings of the analysis show that no positive results or achievements have been achieved towards resolving the crisis and the crisis continues. The aim of Western sanctions against Russia after the Ukraine war was to put pressure on the Russian economy and reduce its ability to continue the war. In other words, sanctions are usually designed to create economic pressure to force the target country to change its behavior; however, their success depends on the target country’s economic dependence on the international community and its ability to find alternative means. In the case of Russia, sanctions have had an economic impact but have so far failed to produce a significant change in the country’s policies. Russia has also responded to this challenge by imposing reciprocal sanctions and trying to reduce its dependence on Western markets, seeking new markets and partners in Asia, especially China, to reduce its vulnerability to Western sanctions. As a result, the war is still ongoing, showing that sanctions alone have not been able to quickly stop the conflict. Russia, with its own strategic and security objectives in Ukraine-such as preventing NATO expansion toward its borders and establishing a sphere of influence-seems to view the economic costs of sanctions as less important than achieving these goals. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| International Crisis, Sanctions, United States, Ukraine, Russia | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
منابع
فارسی
اصولی، قاسم. (1404)، «تحولات ساختاری در مجموعه امنیتی قفقاز جنوبی (2020-2024)»، مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، دوره 17، شماره 2، صص. 1-27 (doi:10.22059/jcep.2025.386611.450279)
برچر، مایکل (1382الف)، بحران در سیاست جهان یافته‌ها و مطالعات موردی (جلد دوم)، ترجمه حیدر علی بلوجی، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
برچر، مایکل (1382ب)، بحران در سیاست جهان ظهور و سقوط بحران‌ها (جلد اول)، ترجمه میرفردین قریشی، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی
چگنی‌زاده، غلامعلی و وحید اخوت (1402)، «نظم جهانی از منظر کیسینجر، مطالعه موردی بحران اوکراین»، فصلنامه روابط خارجی، دوره 15، شماره 2، صص. 1-24. (doi: 10.22034/fr.2023.392491.1368).
رنجبر حیدری، وحید، ارسلان قربانی، رضا سیمبر و ابراهیم حاجیانی (1398)، «شناسایی و تبیین عوامل و محرک‌های مؤثر بر روابط ایران با شورای همکاری خلیج فارس در افق ده‌ساله با استفاده از روش MICMAC»، مطالعات راهبردی سیاست، دوره 8، شماره 29، صص. 143-177. (do:10.22054/qpss.2019.27026.1805).
زمانی، ناصر (1392)، «تحلیل ریشه‌ها و ماهیت بحران اوکراین: تشدید تنش شبه جنگ سرد بین روسیه و غرب»، فصلنامه سیاست خارجی، دوره 27، شماره 4، صص. 889- 918، قابل دسترسی در:
http://fp.ipisjournals.ir/article_12084.html، (تاریخ دسترسی: 9/8/ 1403).
قاسمی، روح‌الله (1401)، «تحریم‌های غرب علیه روسیه؛ میزان تاب‌آوری مسکو»، مطالعات راهبردی جهان اسلام، دوره 92، شماره 23، صص. 5-32.، قابل دسترسی در: https://www.noormags.ir/view/en/articlepage/2029544 (تاریخ دسترسی : 7/7/1403).
ملکی، عباس و شهاب الدین شکری (1403)، «تاثیر تحریم‌های بینالمللی بر امنیت انرژی روسیه»، فصلنامه مطالعات بینالمللی، دوره 21، شماره 3، صص. 239-209.( (doi:10.22034/isj.2024.457551.2172
نیازی کومله، اعظم و حبیب‌الله کاظمی نجفی (1397)، «مطالعه اهمیّت فیزیوتراپی در کیفیت زندگی سالمندان: کاربست روش میک مک درآینده پژوهی»، نوین سلامت، دوره 3، شماره 1، صص. 30-38، قابل دسترسی در: https://sid.ir/paper/269278/en (تاریخ دسترسی:5/5/ 1403)
هلالات، عماد و حمید حکیم(1402)، «سیاست ترکیه در بحران اوکراین؛ توازن و بهره‌وری حداکثر»، فصلنامه سیاست خارجی، دوره 37، شماره 4، صص. 182-157، قابل دسترسی در: https://fp.ipisjournals.ir/article_712352.html. (تاریخ دسترسی: 2/2/ 1403)
وثوقی، سعید و علی موسائی(1403)، «نقش غرب در بحران‌های 2014 و 2022 اوکراین و طولانی‌شدن آن‌ها»، مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، دوره 17، شماره 2، صص. 490-463. (doi: 10.22059/jcep.2024.377585.450230)
English Arapova, Ekaterina (2023), “The Sanctions Dilemma: How Sanctions Against Russia Affect Regional Integration within the EAEU States”, Strategic Analysis, Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 289–294, (doi:10.1080/09700161.2023.2247746). “Assessment of the External Debt of the Russian Federation for July 1, 2021” (2021), Bank of Russia, Available at: https://cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/ext-debt/ (Accessed on: 1/7/2021). Cafruny, Alan and Vassilis K. Fouskas (2024), “Ukraine, Europe, and the Re-Routing of Globalization”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 1-22, (doi:10.1080/19448953.2023.2197635). Cafruny, Alan and Vassilis K. Fouskas, William D. E. Mallinsonc, and Andrey Voynitsky (2023), “Ukraine, Multipolarity and the Crisis of Grand Strategies”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 1-21, (doi:10.1080/19448953.2022.2084881). Fan, Yinbin and Elena Voronkova (2024), “Modern Payment Infrastructure of Cross-Border Settlements of Russia and China”, In E3S Web of Conferences, Vol. 533, pp. 1-8, (doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202453304026). Ganguly, Sumit (2024), “India, Russia and the Ukraine Crisis”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 55–69, (doi:10.1080/0163660X.2024.2366108). Glenn, Caileigh (2023), “Lessons in Sanctions-Proofing from Russia”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 105–120, (doi:10.1080/0163660X.2023.2188829). Issaev, Leonid (2021), “Russia and the New Middle East”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 423–442, (doi:10.1080/19448953.2021.1888245). Klose, Jens (2024), “Empirical Effects of Sanctions and Support Measures on Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the Russia–Ukraine War”, Global Finance Journal, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 100-109, (doi: 10.1016/j.gfj.2023.100925). Likhacheva, Anastasia (2021), “Russia and Sanctions: The Transformational Domestic and International Effects of Unilateral Restrictive Measures”, Russian Politics, Vol. 6, No, 4, pp. 478-502, (doi:10.31107/2075-1990-2021-4-52-66). Liu, Zongyuan Zoe and Papa Mihaela (2022), Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System? University Printing House, Cambridge, (doi: 10.1017/9781009029544). Ran, Tongzhou and Zhangbo Liu (2023), “The Russia-Ukraine War” or “The US-Russia War”? Thematic analysis of Global Times’ Coverage of the Russia-Ukraine War”, Media Asia, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 3–32, (doi: 10.1080/01296612.2023.2246721). Ranjbar Heydari, Vahid, Arslan Ghorbani, Reza Simbar and Ebrahim Hajiani (2019), “Identifying and Explaining Factors and Drivers Affecting Iran's Relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council in the Ten-Year Horizon Using MICMAC Method”, Political Strategic Studies, Vol. 8, No, 29, pp. 143-177, (doi: 10.22054/qpss.2019.27026.1805), [in Persian]. Sanus, Ekin, Sinem AkgülAçıkmeşe, and Emrah Karaoguz (2024), “The EU's Autonomous Sanctions Against Russia in 2014 Versus 2022: How Does the Bureaucratic Politics Model Bring in the Institutional ‘Balance of Power’Within the EU?”, JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 1-18, (doi: 10.1111/jcms.13565). Sciortino, Raffaele (2024), The US–China Rift and Its Impact on Globalisation: Crisis, Strategy, Transitions, Studies in Critical Social Sciences, (doi: 10.1163/9789004694361). Shagina, Maria (2022), “Western Financial Warfare and Russia's De-dollarization Strategy, How Sanctions on Russia Might Reshape the Global Financial System”, Briefing Paper, No. 339. Availableat: https://www.fiia.fi/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/bp339), (Accessed on: 05/05/2022). Song, Yang (2023), “Ironclad US Commitment to NATO? From NATO Expansion to the Ukraine Crisis”, Cogent Social Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 1-16, (doi: 10.1080/23311886.2023.2282734). Sutter, Sutter and Rebecca Nelson (2021), “De-Dollarization Efforts in China and Russia”, Congressional Research Service, No. 885, Available at: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11885), (Accessed on: 01/01/2023). Yan, Shaohua, Xu Yao and Bin Ma (2022), “Chinese Transnational Corporations in the Ukraine Crisis: Risk Perception and Mitigation”, Transnational Corporations Review, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 371–381, (doi: 10.1080/19186444.2022.2144082). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 149 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 59 |
||
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب