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تأثیر خروج آمریکا از افغانستان بر موقعیت آن در رقابت راهبردی با چین | ||
| مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
| دوره 18، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 35، شهریور 1404، صفحه 217-242 اصل مقاله (1.11 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2025.346739.450091 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| نوذر شفیعی* | ||
| دانشیار ، گروه مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| دو سال پس از خروج آمریکا از افغانستان هنوز این پرسش به‌طور جدی مطرح است که چگونه ممکن است خروج آمریکا از افغانستان بر موقعیت آمریکا در رقابت راهبردی با چین تأثیر بگذارد؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که میان تصمیم آمریکا به خروج از افغانستان و رقابت راهبردی این کشور با چین ارتباط معناداری وجود دارد. بدین معنی که حضور آمریکا در افغانستان فرصت‌هایی را برای چین و تهدیدهایی را برای آمریکا (هزینه‌های مالی، جانی و اعتباری) به‌وجود آورده بود، به‌گونه‌ای که پکن درعمل از آمریکا بهره‌برداری می‌کرد. آمریکا با خروج خود از افغانستان و جایگزینی راهبرد «آشوب هدایت‌شده» به‌جای «راهبرد ثبات‌بخشی و حل بحران» در افغانستان تلاش می‌کند فرصت‌های چین را تبدیل به تهدید و تهدیدهای آمریکا را تبدیل به فرصت کند. به بیان دیگر، آمریکا می‌خواهد با خروج از افغانستان و درپیش‌گرفتن سیاست آشوب هدایت‌شده در افغانستان نه‌تنها محیط داخلی و منطقه‌ای افغانستان را برای چین ناامن کند، بلکه امیدوار است با سرریز‌شدن بحران افغانستان به داخل چین، این کشور را از درون نیز با چالش روبه‌رو کند. یافته‌های نوشتار نشان می‌دهد آمریکا تلاش می‌کند برای غلبه بر چین در رقابت آینده، علاوه بر مهار چین، شکاف‌های قومی را در این کشور فعال کند. منچو، مغول، تبتی و اویغور از گروه‌های قومی هستند که آمادگی خیزش علیه حاکمیت چین را دارند. بی‌ثباتی که پس از خروج آمریکا از افغانستان ایجاد می‌شود می‌تواند بر منطقۀ سین‌کیانگ چین و ابرطرح یک کمربند و یک راه تأثیر بگذارد و موقعیت آمریکا را در رقابت با چین بهبود بخشد. روش این نوشتار ترکیبی (کمی‌کیفی) و ابزار آن فیش‌برداری از منابع اینترنتی و کتابخانه‌ای است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| جنگ ابدی؛ جنگ سرد جدید؛ جنگ غیرقابل پیروزی؛ آشوب هدایت‌شده؛ مهار | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Impact of the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan on Its Posion in the Strategic Competition with China | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Nozar Shafiee | ||
| Associate Professor, Department of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: The question of why the US decided to withdraw from Afghanistan unexpectedly has been a question that has been on the minds of analysts and has been given different answers. The importance of this question and its speculative answers lies in the belief that the United States entry into Afghanistan in 2001 was based on the country's long-term strategic interests and that Washington is unlikely to leave Afghanistan easily. The most important reasons that some American officials, including Joe Biden, have put forward for the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan are: Endless or unwinnable war, the Vietnamization of war, the importance of the Chinese threat and the need for the United States to focus its attention on this country in East Asia. Among these three reasons, which are of course completely interrelated, the fact that China has become a serious threat to the United States is of particular importance. In other words, America's withdrawal from Afghanistan is closely related to the country's strategic competition with China in the region and the international system. Research question: What impact will America's withdrawal from Afghanistan have on America's position in competition with China? Research Hypothesis: The US presence in Afghanistan has created opportunities for China and threats (financial, human, and reputational costs) for the US, so that Beijing has effectively taken a free ride from the US. By withdrawing from Afghanistan and replacing the "directed chaos" strategy with a "stability and crisis resolution strategy" in Afghanistan, the United States is trying to turn China's opportunities into threats and America's threats into opportunities. Research Methodology: To investigate the above hypothesis, a mixed method (quantitative-qualitative) with a descriptive-analytical approach was used. This means that both quantitative data, such as the number of casualties of American soldiers and its allies in Afghanistan and China's economic opportunities in Afghanistan, were examined and qualitative data, such as the opinions of various authors and the positions of politicians in the countries, were cited. The method of collecting information was to review library and internet resources. Results and Discussion: The research findings suggest that the United States is trying to activate ethnic divisions in future competitions, in addition to containing China. Manchus, Mongols, Tibetans and Uyghurs are among the ethnic groups that have the potential to rebel against Chinese rule. The instability that will arise after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan could affect China's Xinjiang region as well as the massive “Belt and Road initiative” improving the US position in competition with China. By withdrawing from Afghanistan and adopting a "policy of directed chaos" in Afghanistan, the United States not only intends to make Afghanistan's internal and regional environment insecure for China, but also to challenge China from within by dragging the Afghan crisis to China. In other words, in addition to the containment policy it has pursued in the East, Southeast and South Asia, the United States also intends to pursue a policy of "directed chaos" towards China in order to overcome its competition with China. This policy is implemented by creating insecurity in Afghanistan and then managing it in this country and the region and its tool is Islamic radicalism. With this policy, China's domestic environment (Xinjiang) and the regional environment (the Belt and Road Initiative, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) are affected. This not only distracts China from domestic problems, but also deprives Beijing of regional opportunities. Conclusion: Given the strategic competition between the United States and China for hegemony, Afghanistan is of great importance in the foreign policy of these two powers. In the past, Afghanistan was considered a buffer country, but today it is a country that powers are trying to influence. The developments in Afghanistan over the past two years, which led to the Taliban's dominance over the country, are not unrelated to the competition between China and the United States for influence in Afghanistan. China and the United States, as two geostrategic powers in structural competition with each other, are seeking influence in Afghanistan as a geopolitical pivot. While the United States attempted to establish its presence in Afghanistan through military presence, China did so through economic presence. This competition between 2001 and 2021 led to Washington's defeat by imposing a heavy cost on the United States and China, by abusing the American presence, effectively won the game. Therefore, it seems that Washington has decided to change the equation to China's disadvantage by withdrawing from Afghanistan. The United States hopes that after withdrawing from Afghanistan, the country's conflicts and its management by the United States will impose costs on China in the following ways: as the investment environment in Afghanistan becomes insecure, China's economic opportunities will be challenged. As the regional environment in Afghanistan becomes insecure, the implementation of the “Belt and Road Initiative” will be disrupted. With chaos in the domestic arena of Afghanistan, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement will have an opportunity to destabilize the Xinjiang region and finally, China will be forced to intervene in Afghanistan so that it can be buried in the so-called “graveyard of empires” like other empires. Such achievements, especially when accompanied by the management of the chaos by the United States, are in themselves beneficial to the United States. But this is only part of the achievements. The US withdrawal policy from Afghanistan could also strengthen the US position in competition with China in three other ways: it would free up limited military resources in Afghanistan and allow them to be deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, frees up diplomatic and bureaucratic capacity for senior American officials, allowing them to devote time and attention to China that would otherwise be spent on the Afghan quagmire and finally, it could save the U.S. government money and allocate billions of dollars to help with projects that improve America's position in competition with China. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Forever War, New Cold War, Unwinnable War, Directed Chaos, Containment | ||
| مراجع | ||
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منابع
فارسی
سلیمانی پورلک، فاطمه (1400)، «خروج آمریکا از افغانستان؛ بازتاب استراتژی بازموازنه»، رهیافت‌های سیاسی و بین المللی، دوره ۱۳، صص. ۲۳۳-۲۵۸. (doi:10.29252/PIAJ.2022.224020.1139)
خسروی، علیرضا و علی‌نقی فیاض (1402) «تحولات داخلی افغانستان و تغییر در راهبرد سیاست خارجی آمریکا»، مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، دوره ۱۶، شماره۱، صص. ۹۹-۱۲۳.
(doi:10.22059/jcep.2023.340213.450064)
جعفری، مهدی، روح الله بنایی و سعید نظری سبزواری (1401)، «پیامدهای خروج امریکا از افغانستان برای چین و هند»، مدیریت راهبردی و آینده‌پژوهی، دوره ۵، شماره ۲، صص. ۱۲۹-۱۴۹. قابل دسترسی در:
(تاریخ دسترسی:۷/۹/۱۴۰۳)
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