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باقری, رسول, نوحه گر, احمد, صالحی, اسماعیل, علوی نائینی, علی. (1404). بررسی تأثیر بحران تغییر اقلیم بر رفتارهای محیطی و توسعه پایدار شهری مطالعه موردی خشکسالی شهر اصفهان. , 57(4), 77-96. doi: 10.22059/jhgr.2026.386782.1008768
رسول باقری; احمد نوحه گر; اسماعیل صالحی; علی علوی نائینی. "بررسی تأثیر بحران تغییر اقلیم بر رفتارهای محیطی و توسعه پایدار شهری مطالعه موردی خشکسالی شهر اصفهان". , 57, 4, 1404, 77-96. doi: 10.22059/jhgr.2026.386782.1008768
باقری, رسول, نوحه گر, احمد, صالحی, اسماعیل, علوی نائینی, علی. (1404). 'بررسی تأثیر بحران تغییر اقلیم بر رفتارهای محیطی و توسعه پایدار شهری مطالعه موردی خشکسالی شهر اصفهان', , 57(4), pp. 77-96. doi: 10.22059/jhgr.2026.386782.1008768
باقری, رسول, نوحه گر, احمد, صالحی, اسماعیل, علوی نائینی, علی. بررسی تأثیر بحران تغییر اقلیم بر رفتارهای محیطی و توسعه پایدار شهری مطالعه موردی خشکسالی شهر اصفهان. , 1404; 57(4): 77-96. doi: 10.22059/jhgr.2026.386782.1008768

بررسی تأثیر بحران تغییر اقلیم بر رفتارهای محیطی و توسعه پایدار شهری مطالعه موردی خشکسالی شهر اصفهان

پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی
مقاله 5، دوره 57، شماره 4، دی 1404، صفحه 77-96    اصل مقاله (1.19 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2026.386782.1008768
نویسندگان
رسول باقری1؛ احمد نوحه گر* 1؛ اسماعیل صالحی2؛ علی علوی نائینی1
1گروه مهندسی سوانح طبیعی، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
2گروه برنامه‌ریزی ، مدیریت‌ محیط‌ زیست‌ و HSE، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
چکیده
تغییر اقلیم از مهم‌ترین بحران‌های ‌محیطی قرن بیست و یکم می‌باشد و تأثیرات گسترده‌ای بر ناپایداری اکوسیستم‌ها، منابع طبیعی و رفتارهای اجتماعی گذاشته است. این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیرات آنها بر رفتارهای محیطی و بخصوص نگرش‌های اخلاقی شهروندان در شهر اصفهان پرداخته است. تغییر اقلیم و بحران‌ خشکسالی و نتایج آنها تأثیرات قابل توجهی بر ناپایداری محیطی و اجتماعی اصفهان داشته است. برای تحلیل این تأثیرات، شاخص‌های استاندارد (SPEI,SPI) جهت ارزیابی وضعیت خشکسالی و تغییرات بارش در سال‌های اخیر استفاده شد. داده‌های اقلیمی از سازمان هواشناسی کشور اخذ و تغییرات الگوهای بارشی در دهه اخیر بررسی گردید. در کنار تحلیل‌های اقلیمی، داده‌های میدانی نیز از طریق پرسش‌نامه از چهار گروه اجتماعی مختلف شامل کشاورزان، صنعتگران، فعالان محیط‌زیست و شهروندان عادی جمع‌آوری شد. پرسش‌نامه‌ها با هدف ارزیابی تغییرات در نگرش و رفتارهای محیطی نسبت به تغییر اقلیم طراحی شدند. در این تحقیق، از روش‌های آماری توصیفی و تحلیل همبستگی برای پردازش داده‌ها استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که تغییر اقلیم، به‌ویژه کاهش بارش‌ها و افزایش دما، تأثیرات قابل توجهی بر رفتارهای محیطی شهروندان گذاشته است. به‌طور خاص، افزایش خشکسالی‌های شدید تأثیر زیادی بر گروه کشاورزان داشته است، در حالی که گروه‌های دیگر نظیر صنعتگران و فعالان محیط زیست بیشتر نگران آثار افزایش دما و آلودگی هوا هستند. این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که تغییر اقلیم موجب افزایش آگاهی شهروندان از مسائل محیطی و نیاز به تغییر رفتارهای فردی و اجتماعی شده است. در نهایت، پیشنهاداتی برای ارتقاء آگاهی عمومی و توسعه سیاست‌های سازگار با محیط جهت بهبود وضعیت و توسعه پایدار شهری ارائه گردید.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تغییر اقلیم؛ توسعه پایدار شهری؛ روش‌های ارزیابی خشکسالی؛ محیط شهری؛ شهر اصفهان
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigating the Impact of Climate Change Crisis on Environmental Behaviors and Sustainable Urban Development: A case study of drought in Isfahan city
نویسندگان [English]
rasoul bagheri1؛ Ahmad Nohegar1؛ Esmail Salehi2؛ Ali Alavi naeini1
1Department of Natural Disaster Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran
2Department of Planning, Environmental Management and HSE, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
ABSTRACT
Climate change is one of the most important environmental crises of the 21st century and has had widespread impacts on ecosystem stability, natural resources, and social behavior. This study examined their impacts on environmental behaviors, particularly the ethical attitudes of citizens in Isfahan. Climate change, drought, and their effects have had significant impacts on environmental and social instability in Isfahan. To analyze these impacts, standard indices (SPEI, SPI) were used to assess drought conditions and precipitation changes over recent years. Climatic data were obtained from the National Meteorological Organization, and changes in precipitation patterns in the last decade were examined. In addition to climate analyses, field data were also collected through questionnaires from four different social groups, including farmers, industrialists, environmental activists, and ordinary citizens. The questionnaires were designed to assess changes in environmental attitudes and behaviors towards climate change. In this study, descriptive statistical methods and correlation analysis were used to process data. The results show that climate change, especially the decrease in precipitation and the increase in temperature, has had significant effects on the environmental behaviors of citizens. In particular, the increase in severe droughts has had a significant impact on the agricultural group, while other groups, such as industrialists and environmental activists, are more concerned about the effects of increasing temperature and air pollution. This study shows that climate change has increased citizens' awareness of environmental issues and the need to change individual and social behaviors. Finally, suggestions were made to promote public awareness and develop environmentally friendly policies to improve the situation and urban sustainable development
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Climate change, as one of the most important environmental crises of the 21st century, has had widespread consequences on the sustainability of ecosystems, natural resources, and human social behaviors. Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, decreasing water resources, frequent droughts, and intensifying air pollution are among the most important manifestations of this global phenomenon. Cities are more exposed to climate change-related damage than other settlements due to their high population concentration, economic activities, and unbalanced development. Isfahan, with its semi-arid climate and historical reliance on the Zayandeh-Rud River, has been severely affected by water scarcity and drought in recent decades. In addition to environmental consequences, these conditions have also led to changes in citizens' moral attitudes and environmental behaviors. Therefore, understanding the relationship between climate change-related drought and citizens' moral attitudes is necessary to formulate effective policies for urban sustainable development. The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of climate change and drought on the environmental behaviors and ethical attitudes of Isfahan citizens.
 
Methodology
This research was descriptive-analytical and quantitative. Standard indicators (SPEI, SPI) were used to assess the drought situation and precipitation changes. Climatic data were extracted from the official database of the Iranian Meteorological Organization, and the trend in precipitation over the last decade was analyzed. In the social sector, field data were collected through questionnaires from four social groups, including farmers, industrialists, environmental activists, and ordinary citizens. The sample size was 384 people. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and regression were used to analyze the data.
 
Results and discussion
The results of the SPI index analysis showed that over the past decade, a clear trend of decreasing precipitation and increasing drought intensity in Isfahan city has been observed, and 2018 and 2021 were identified as severe drought years. In terms of the overall average percentage of concern, environmental activists have shown the highest sensitivity to climate change, with 90.75%, indicating the group's high awareness and direct involvement in environmental issues. Farmers are in second place with 73%, which is due to the direct dependence of their livelihoods on water resources and agricultural activities. Ordinary citizens show moderate sensitivity at 64.75%, while industrialists show the lowest level of concern at 56.25%, due to their greater focus on economic and infrastructure issues.
More than 80% of respondents were aware of the negative effects of climate change, such as drought and water scarcity, and this awareness was particularly pronounced among farmers, with 92% citing drought as the most significant challenge caused by climate change. In the area of environmental behaviors, 40% participate in recycling, 50% have seriously reduced their water consumption, and 60% are willing to participate in environmental protection activities; however, only 30% reported using public transportation. In the field of environmental ethics, 75% of citizens feel a moral obligation to protect the environment, and 65% emphasize the need for urgent community action to preserve natural resources.
Regarding the main concerns, farmers identified increasing droughts (92%), declining water resources (90%), and impacts on agriculture (90%) as the most important challenges. Industrialists identified urban air pollution (80%) and energy consumption (70%) as their top priorities. Among environmental activists, air pollution (98%), decreasing water resources (95%), and public health (95%) were the most important concerns. Ordinary citizens also identified air pollution (75%), public health (75%), and increasing urban heat (80%) as the most important threats. In terms of least concern, farmers identified waste management (50%); industrialists identified soil erosion (40%) and changing precipitation patterns (40%); and ordinary citizens identified energy consumption (55%) and impact on agriculture (55%) as the least important. The population affected by severe drought in Isfahan province was reported to be 31%. However, in Isfahan city, the rate was more than 76%, indicating the city's high vulnerability to the drought crisis. The reduction of water resources is recognized as the main crisis by 95% of environmental activists and 90% of farmers, and the drying up of the Zayandeh-Rud River, land subsidence, and threats to historical monuments have made Isfahan's urban sustainable development extremely fragile.
 
Conclusion
The findings of the study show that climate change and drought have had a profound impact on the ethical attitudes and environmental behaviors of Isfahan citizens. As the water crisis worsens, public awareness has grown, and the inclination towards responsible environmental behavior has strengthened. However, there remains a significant gap between attitudes and actual behavior, particularly in transportation and energy consumption. Therefore, to achieve urban sustainable development, it is necessary to implement targeted educational policies, develop water-recycling technologies, modify consumption patterns, and involve citizens actively. The results of this study can serve as a basis for environmental and management planning in Isfahan city in the face of climate change.
 
Funding
This research was conducted without external financial support.
 
Authors’ Contributions
All authors contributed equally to the study design, data analysis, and manuscript preparation.
 
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgements
The authors express their sincere gratitude to scientific advisors, the Iranian Meteorological Organization, and all individuals who contributed to data collection and the successful completion of this research.
 
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Climate Change, Urban Sustainable Development, Drought assessment methods, Urban environment, Isfahan city
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