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پیشبینی گسترش فضایی شهری یاسوج و تغییر کاربریهای حومة آن | ||
| نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی | ||
| دوره 79، شماره 1، خرداد 1405، صفحه 189-208 اصل مقاله (1007.57 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jne.2026.411363.2895 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| وجیهه قربان نیا خیبری* 1؛ الهه عظیمی2 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیطزیست، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران. | ||
| 2گروه شهرسازی، دانشکدة هنر و معماری، دانشگاه یزد، شهر یزد، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| گسترش فضای شهری کنترلنشده و پراکنده در شهرهای در حال رشد، چالشهای جدی برای پایداری محیطزیستی ایجاد کرده است. این پژوهش با هدف پیشبینی گسترش فضایی شهری یاسوج و تغییر کاربریهای حومه آن طی سالهای 2001 تا 2037 انجام شد. دادههای ماهوارهای لندست 7 برای سالهای 2001 و 2013 و لندست 8 برای سال 2025 مورد استفاده قرار گرفتند. پس از انجام تصحیحات رادیومتری و اتمسفری تصاویر در محیط نرمافزار ENVI 5.6، طبقهبندی نظارتشده با روش حداکثر احتمال (MLC) انجام و صحت آن اعتبارسنجی شد. برای شبیهسازی و پیشبینی تغییرات، از مدل شبکه خودکار مارکوف (CA-Markov) در محیط نرمافزار TerrSet 2020 استفاده شد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که در دورة مورد مطالعه، مساحت مناطق مسکونی و کشاورزی افزایش یافته است. نتایج طبقهبندی در هر سه سال مورد بررسی از دقت قابل قبولی برخوردار بوده است، بنابراین میتوان ادعا کرد که مدل از دقت مکانی و کمّی قابل قبولی برخوردار است. رشد مناطق مسکونی و کشاورزی عمدتاً به قیمت کاهش کمّی و کیفی جنگلها و مراتع حاصلخیز پیرامون شهر صورت گرفته است. نقشة پیشبینی برای سال 2037 تشدید روند پراکندهروی شهری، گسترش گستردة سکونتگاههای پراکنده و تضعیف بیشتر پوششهای طبیعی را نشان میدهد. یافتهها ضرورت بازنگری در الگوهای گسترش فضای شهری یاسوج و اتخاذ رویکردهای مبتنی بر رشد فشرده، تعیین مرز گسترش فضای شهری و حفظ کمربندهای سبز برای تضمین تعادل میان نیازهای توسعه و پایداری اکولوژیک را برجسته میسازد. از اینرو، توصیه میشود بهجای رشد شهری در مناطق پیرامونی و حومه، از ظرفیت درونی شهر استفاده شود. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| پیشبینی؛ تصاویر ماهوارهای؛ شهر یاسوج؛ کاربری اراضی؛ گسترش فضای شهری | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Forecasting the urban spatial expansion of Yasouj and the change in uses of its suburbs | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Vajihe Ghorbannia Kheybari1؛ Ellahe Azimi2 | ||
| 1Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Art and Architecture, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Uncontrolled and scattered urban development in growing cities has created serious challenges for environmental sustainability. This research was conducted to predict the spatial development of Yasouj city and the changes in its surrounding land uses from 2001 to 2037. Landsat 7 satellite data were used for 2001 and 2013, and Landsat 8 data for 2025. After performing radiometric and atmospheric corrections on the images using ENVI 5.6 software, supervised classification was performed using the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) method, and its accuracy was validated. To simulate and predict changes, the CA-Markov model was used within the TerrSet 2020 software environment. The results of this study showed that during the studied period, the area of residential and agricultural lands increased. The classification results for all three studied years had acceptable accuracy; therefore, it can be claimed that the model possesses acceptable spatial and quantitative accuracy. The growth of residential and agricultural areas primarily occurred at the expense of the quantitative and qualitative reduction of forests and fertile rangelands surrounding the city. The prediction map for the year 2037 shows an intensification of urban sprawl, extensive expansion of scattered settlements, and further weakening of natural land covers. The findings highlight the necessity of revising urban development patterns in Yasouj and adopting approaches based on compact growth, defining urban growth boundaries, and preserving green belts to ensure a balance between development needs and ecological sustainability. Therefore, it is recommended to utilize the inner capacity of the city (infill development) instead of urban growth in peripheral and suburban areas. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Land Use, Prediction, Satellite Images, Urban development, Yasouj City | ||
| مراجع | ||
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