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شناسایی و تحلیل مدلهای بهینهسازی مناسب برای طراحی زنجیره تأمین پرورش ماهی در قفس دریایی در شرایط عدم قطعیت | ||
| مهندسی بیوسیستم ایران | ||
| دوره 57، شماره 1، اردیبهشت 1405، صفحه 87-105 اصل مقاله (1.91 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijbse.2026.408905.665634 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حمید سینیساز شهشهانی1؛ محمد شریفی* 2؛ اسداله اکرم2؛ مجید خانعلی3 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی ماشینهای کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. | ||
| 2گروه مهندسی ماشین های کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| 3گروه مهندسی ماشین های کشاورزی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| پرورش ماهی در قفس دریایی در سواحل جنوبی ایران (بوشهر، هرمزگان، خوزستان و سیستانوبلوچستان) طی سالهای اخیر با رشد سالانه ۱۵ تا ۲۰% در حال توسعه است. این فعالیت بخشی از برنامه ملی افزایش تولید آبزیپروری به بیش از ۸/۱ میلیون تن محسوب میشود. هرمزگان قطب اصلی تولید گونههای دریایی، بوشهر با حدود ۱۴،000 تن تولید و بیش از ۲۰ مزرعه فعال، خوزستان با هدف ۵،000 تن و سیستانوبلوچستان با پتانسیل بالای سواحل مکران و دریای عمان از نقاط کلیدی این طرح هستند. با وجود چالشهای اقلیمی، زیرساختی و نوسانات بازار، ظرفیت بالای منطقه و حمایتهای دولتی، این حوزه را به یکی از محورهای توسعه پایدار شیلات ایران تبدیل کرده است. در پژوهش حاضر، مدل برنامهریزی خطی مختلط عدد صحیح چندهدفه سناریومحور برای طراحی زنجیره تأمین آبزیپروری در شرایط عدم قطعیت ارائه شده است. این مدل اهداف اقتصادی (کاهش هزینه کل زنجیره)، اجتماعی (افزایش اشتغال پایدار) و محیطزیستی (کاهش مصرف سوخت و انتشار آلایندهها) را همزمان دنبال میکند. سه سناریوی خوشبینانه، معمولی و بدبینانه برای تحلیل عدم قطعیتها در مدل وارد و پیادهسازی آن با استفاده از کتابخانه PuLP در محیط پایتون انجام شده است. سه روش «اپسیلون-محدودیتی»، «ترکیب وزندار» و «بهینهسازی استوار» برای حل و مقایسه مدل به کار رفتهاند. نتایج نشان داد روش ترکیب وزندار با برقراری تعادل میان اهداف سهگانه، بهترین و عملیترین راهحل را ارائه میدهد و یک گره کلیدی در چابهار را فعال میسازد. در این وضعیت هزینه کل زنجیره حدود ۷،۴۱۸،۵۰۰ میلیون ریال، اشتغال پایدار برابر با ۳۹۰،۰۰۰ نفر و مصرف انرژی ۸۳۰،۰۰۰ گیگاژول برآورد شد. در مقابل، دو روش دیگر بهدلیل محدودیتهای سخت یا حساسیت بالا نسبت به سناریوهای بدبینانه، فاقد راهحل قابل پذیرش بودند. در نهایت، روش ترکیب وزندار بهعنوان رویکرد برتر و انعطافپذیر برای شرایط بومی جنوب ایران توصیه میشود. همچنین مصرف انرژی بالا، ضرورت افزایش وزن هدف محیطزیستی (w3=0.3) را جهت ارتقای پایداری در سناریوهای مختلف نشان میدهد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| آبزیپروری در قفس دریایی؛ بهینهسازی چندهدفه؛ زنجیره تأمین؛ عدم قطعیت؛ روش ترکیب وزندار | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Identification and Analysis of Suitable Optimization Models for Designing the Supply Chain of Marine Cage Aquaculture under Uncertainty | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamid Sinisaz-Shahshahani1؛ Mohammad Sharifi2؛ Asadollah Akram2؛ Majid Khanali3 | ||
| 1Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| 3Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Marine cage aquaculture along the southern coasts of Iran (Bushehr, Hormozgan, Khuzestan, and Sistan and Baluchestan) has experienced an annual growth rate of 15–20% in recent years and constitutes a key component of the national strategy to increase total aquaculture production to over 1.8 million tons. Hormozgan serves as the primary hub for marine species production; Bushehr produces approximately 14,000 tons with more than 20 active farms; Khuzestan targets 5,000 tons; and Sistan and Baluchestan benefits from the substantial potential of the Makran coast and the Oman Sea. Despite climatic constraints, infrastructural limitations, and market volatility, the sector’s high regional capacity and governmental support have positioned it as a strategic pillar of sustainable fisheries development in Iran. This study develops a scenario-based multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to design the aquaculture supply chain under uncertainty. The model simultaneously addresses economic (minimization of total supply chain costs), social (maximization of sustainable employment), and environmental (reduction of fuel consumption and emissions) objectives. Uncertainty is incorporated through three scenarios—optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. The model is implemented in Python using the PuLP library, and three solution approaches are compared: the ε-constraint method, the weighted-sum method, and robust optimization. Findings indicate that the weighted-sum approach provides the most practical and balanced solution, activating only the strategic node of Chabahar. This configuration yields a total supply chain cost of approximately 7,418,500 million IRR, generates 390,000 sustainable jobs, and results in energy consumption of 830,000 GJ. In contrast, the ε-constraint and robust optimization methods fail to produce feasible solutions due to rigid constraints and high sensitivity to pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Accordingly, the weighted-sum method is recommended as a flexible and context-appropriate approach for southern Iran. However, the relatively high energy consumption underscores the need to increase the environmental weight (w3=0.3) to enhance sustainability under uncertainty. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| marine cage aquaculture, multi-objective optimization, supply chain, uncertainty, weighted sum method | ||
| مراجع | ||
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