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تحلیل احتمالاتی فرونشست زمین ناشی از برداشت آب زیرزمینی تحت شرایط غیرماندگار در خاکهای ریزدانه | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 57، شماره 1، فروردین 1405، صفحه 21-38 اصل مقاله (2.26 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2026.407325.670062 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مریم نجاتی کلاشمی1؛ امیر ملک پور* 2؛ بهنام شفیعی ثابت1 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، استان گیلان، ایران | ||
| 2عضو هیات علمی گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه گیلان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| فرونشست زمین بهعنوان یکی از پیامدهای برداشت بیرویه آبهای زیرزمینی، تهدیدی جدی برای زیرساختها و محیطزیست به شمار میرود. در این تحقیق، مدلسازی فرونشست ناشی از برداشت آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از یک رویکرد تحلیل احتمالاتی انجام شده است. بدین منظور، یک برنامه رایانهای در محیط نرمافزار MATLAB بر پایه تابع تاثیر اصلاحشده بودریک–کنات توسعه داده شد و برای مدلسازی همبستگی میان پارامترهای ورودی، از چندین تابع کاپولا استفاده گردید. در تحقیق حاضر، با توجه به اهمیت نقش عدمقطعیت در فرآیند مدلسازی فرونشست، دو رویکرد شامل اعمال عدمقطعیت موجود در متغیرهای زمانی و متغیرهای مرتبط با خصوصیات مکانیکی خاک مورد بررسی و مقایسه قرار گرفت. نتایج مطالعه موردی انجامشده در منطقه فومنات استان گیلان با نوع خاک رسی سیلتی نشان داد که در شرایط اعمال عدمقطعیت متغیرهای زمانی، با گذشت زمان دامنه تغییرات فرونشست محاسبهشده کاهش یافته و مدل رفتار پایدارتری نشان میدهد. در مقابل، با اعمال عدمقطعیت موجود در خصوصیات مکانیکی خاک، افزایش پراکندگی مقادیر فرونشست در طول زمان مشاهده میشود. بر این اساس، یافتهها بیانگر این است که در ارزیابیهای کوتاهمدت فرونشست باید بیشتر به خصوصیات مکانیکی خاک تاکید گردد، در صورتی که عدمقطعیتهای مبتنی بر زمان در بلندمدت تاثیر غالب ایفا میکنند. به طور کلی، نتایج بیانگر آن است که برای خاک رسی سیلتی، تابع کاپولا فرانک مناسبترین توزیع احتمال مشترک در شرایط اعمال عدمقطعیت متغیرهای زمانی و خصوصیات مکانیکی خاک میباشد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| پمپاژ؛ تابع تاثیر؛ عدمقطعیت؛ کاپولا؛ نشست تحکیمی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Probabilistic Analysis of Land Subsidence Caused by Groundwater Extraction under Unsteady Conditions in Fine-Grained Soils | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Maryam Nejati Kalashami1؛ Amir Malekpour2؛ Behnam Shafiei Sabet1 | ||
| 1Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Guilan Province, Iran | ||
| 2Academic staff, Dept. Water Engineering, University of Guilan | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Land subsidence, as a consequence of the excessive groundwater extraction, poses a serious threat to infrastructure and environment. In the current research, the land subsidence caused by groundwater withdrawal was investigated and modeled using a probabilistic analysis approach. A computer program was developed in MATLAB based on the modified Budryk–Knothe influence function and several copula functions were employed to model the dependence among input parameters. Given the significance of incorporating uncertainty in subsidence modeling, two approaches were considered and compared including the application of temporal random variables and the random variables related to mechanical soil properties. A case study was conducted in the Foomanat region of Guilan Province, characterized by silty clay soil. The results demonstrated that when the temporal random variables were considered, the variations in the range of calculated subsidence gradually decreased over time, indicating a more stable subsidence model. In contrast, incorporating the uncertainties associated with mechanical soil properties led to an increased scattering in subsidence values with time. Accordingly, the findings suggest that for short-term subsidence assessments, greater emphasis should be placed on soil mechanical properties, whereas temporal uncertainties become more dominant in long-term analyses. Generally, for the silty clay soil of the study area, the Frank copula was identified as the most appropriate function for modeling the joint probability distributions when the temporal random variables and random soil properties are considered. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Consolidation settlement, copula, influence function, pumping, uncertainty | ||
| مراجع | ||
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سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب