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تأثیر فینتک بر شمول مالی و ثبات مالی در منتخبی از کشورهای در حال توسعه | ||
| تحقیقات مالی | ||
| دوره 28، شماره 1، 1405، صفحه 261-299 اصل مقاله (751.39 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/frj.2025.387002.1007676 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سهاد محسن کاظم1؛ علی رضازاده* 2؛ یوسف محمدزاده2؛ سیدجمال الدین محسنی زنوزی2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد مالی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف: هدف این پژوهش، بررسی نقش توسعۀ فینتک در ارتقای شمول مالی و ثبات مالی در کشورهای در حال توسعه است. با گسترش سریع خدمات مالی دیجیتال، فینتک به یکی از ابزارهای کلیدی برای افزایش دسترسی اقشار مختلف جامعه به خدمات مالی رسمی تبدیل شده است. با این حال، در کنار آثار مثبت فینتک بر گسترش شمول مالی، نگرانیهایی در خصوص پیامدهای آن بر ثبات مالی، ریسکهای سیستمی و پایداری نظام بانکی مطرح شده است. ازاینرو، این مطالعه تلاش میکند تا روابط پویا و علّی میان توسعۀ فینتک، شمول مالی و ثبات مالی را بهصورت همزمان و در یک چارچوب اقتصادسنجی پویا بررسی کند. تمرکز اصلی پژوهش، بر شناسایی جهت و شدت اثرهای فینتک بر شمول مالی و ثبات مالی است تا مشخص شود آیا توسعۀ خدمات مالی دیجیتال، میتواند بدون ایجاد مخاطرات ساختاری، به بهبود عملکرد نظام مالی در کشورهای در حال توسعه منجر شود یا خیر. روش: در این پژوهش از دادههای پانلی ۳۸ کشور در حال توسعه، طی دورۀ زمانی ۲۰۰۴ تا ۲۰۲۳ استفاده شده است. بهمنظور تحلیل روابط پویا و درونزای متغیرها، مدل خودرگرسیون برداری پانلی (PVAR) بهکار گرفته شده است. پیش از برآورد مدل، آزمونهای ایستایی انجام شده است. نتایج این آزمونها نشان میدهد که تمامی متغیرها در سطح معناداری ۵ درصد ایستا هستند. وقفۀ بهینه مدل، بر اساس معیارهای اطلاعاتی، برابر با یک دورۀ زمانی انتخاب شده است. شاخص ثبات مالی از طریق Z-score بانکی، بهعنوان معیاری برای سنجش پایداری نظام بانکی محاسبه شده است. شاخص شمول مالی با استفاده از روش تحلیل مؤلفههای اصلی (PCA) و بر مبنای متغیرهایی شامل تعداد شعب بانکی، دستگاههای خودپرداز، حجم وامها و سپردههای بانکی استخراج شده است. شاخص فینتک نیز با استفاده از میزان بهرهگیری از پرداختهای دیجیتال مبتنی بر تلفن همراه، اندازهگیری شده است. برای تبیین روابط علّی و پویای میان متغیرها، از آزمون علیت گرنجری، توابع عکسالعمل آنی و تجزیه واریانس خطای پیشبینی استفاده شده است. یافتهها: نتایج آزمون پایداری، ثبات ساختاری مدل PVAR را تأیید میکند. بر اساس نتایج آزمون علیت گرنجری، رابطه علّی یکطرفهای از فینتک به شمول مالی مشاهده میشود که بیانگر نقش توسعۀ خدمات مالی دیجیتال در گسترش دسترسی مالی است. همچنین، رابطه علّی دوطرفهای بین فینتک و ثبات مالی وجود دارد که تعامل متقابل میان نوآوریهای مالی دیجیتال و پایداری نظام مالی را نشان میدهد. افزونبراین، نتایج حاکی از وجود رابطۀ علّی یکطرفه از ثبات مالی به شمول مالی است. توابع عکسالعمل آنی نشان میدهد که شوکهای مثبت فینتک و ثبات مالی، اثر مثبت و معناداری بر شمول مالی در افق زمانی ۱۰ دورهای دارند، در حالی که شوکهای تورم و نرخ ارز در بلندمدت، اثر منفی بر شمول مالی برجای میگذارند. واکنش ثبات مالی به شوکهای فینتک و شمول مالی در کوتاهمدت مثبت است؛ اما در بلندمدت بهصورت منفی ظاهر میشود که گویای ماهیت پویا و بالقوه غیرخطی این روابط است. نتیجهگیری: یافتههای پژوهش نشان میدهد که توسعۀ فینتک میتواند بهعنوان ابزاری مؤثر برای ارتقای شمول مالی در کشورهای در حال توسعه عمل کند، بدون آنکه در بلندمدت، تهدیدی جدی برای ثبات مالی ایجاد کند. با این حال، اثرهای فینتک بر ثبات مالی، به مدیریت و نظارت مستمر نیاز دارد؛ زیرا در بلندمدت میتواند مخاطرات بالقوهای برای پایداری نظام مالی ایجاد کند. در مجموع، نتایج بر ضرورت طراحی چارچوبهای نظارتی هوشمند و تقویت زیرساختهای مالی دیجیتال تأکید دارد تا ضمن بهرهبرداری از مزایای فینتک، در جهت گسترش شمول مالی، ثبات مالی نیز حفظ شود. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| فینتک؛ شمول مالی؛ ثبات مالی؛ علیت گرنجری | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Impact of FinTech on Financial Inclusion and Financial Stability in Selected Developing Countries | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Sohad Mohsen Kazem1؛ Ali Rezazadeh2؛ Yousef Mohammadzadeh2؛ SeyedJamaleddin Mohseni Zonouzi2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Financial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Prof., Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Objective With the rapid expansion of digital financial services, FinTech has emerged as one of the key instruments for increasing access to formal financial services among different segments of society. However, alongside the positive effects of FinTech on the expansion of financial inclusion, concerns have been raised regarding its potential implications for financial stability, systemic risk, and the sustainability of the banking system. Accordingly, this study seeks to simultaneously investigate the dynamic and causal relationships among FinTech development, financial inclusion, and financial stability within a dynamic econometric framework. Its main focus is to identify the direction and magnitude of the effects of FinTech on financial inclusion and financial stability, to determine whether the development of digital financial services can improve the performance of the financial system in developing countries without generating structural risks. Methods This study employs panel data from 38 developing countries over the period 2004–2023. To capture the dynamic and endogenous relationships among the variables, a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model is utilized. Prior to model estimation, panel unit root tests are conducted, and the results confirm that all variables are stationary at the 5% significance level. Based on standard information criteria, the optimal lag length of the PVAR model is selected as one period. The financial stability is measured using the banking Z-score, which is a widely accepted indicator of banking system resilience. Financial inclusion is constructed through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using variables such as the number of bank branches, automated teller machines (ATMs), bank loans, and bank deposits. The FinTech index was measured using the extent of mobile-based digital payment utilization, reflecting the diffusion of digital financial technologies. To analyze the dynamic interactions and causal linkages among the variables, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition are employed. Results The results of the stability tests confirm that the estimated PVAR model is structurally stable. The Granger causality tests reveal a unidirectional causal relationship running from FinTech development to financial inclusion, indicating that the expansion of digital financial services plays a significant role in enhancing access to financial services. Moreover, a bidirectional causal relationship is identified between FinTech and financial stability, suggesting a mutual interaction between digital financial innovation and the resilience of the financial system. Additionally, a unidirectional causal relationship from financial stability to financial inclusion is observed, highlighting the importance of a stable financial environment in facilitating broader financial access. The impulse response analysis shows that positive shocks to FinTech development and financial stability have a positive and statistically significant effect on financial inclusion over a ten-period horizon. In contrast, inflation and exchange rate shocks exert a negative impact on financial inclusion in the long run. Furthermore, the response of financial stability to shocks in FinTech development and financial inclusion is positive in the short run but turns negative in the long run, reflecting the dynamic and potentially nonlinear nature of these relationships. Conclusion The findings of this study indicate that FinTech development can serve as an effective instrument for enhancing financial inclusion in developing countries without constituting a serious long-term threat to financial stability. Nevertheless, the impact of FinTech on financial stability is dynamic and requires continuous monitoring, as potential risks may emerge over time. Therefore, appropriate regulatory frameworks and prudent supervisory policies are essential to mitigate financial risks while maximizing the benefits of FinTech. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of designing smart and adaptive regulatory policies to harness the advantages of FinTech in promoting financial inclusion while safeguarding financial stability in developing economies. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| FinTech, Financial Inclusion, Financial Stability, Granger causality | ||
| مراجع | ||
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نیکی اسکویی، کامران (1384). تکانههای نفتی و اثرات آن بر روی متغیرهای کالن اقتصادی با استفاده از رویکرد خودتوضیح برداری ساختاری. پایاننامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تهران.
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