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ارزیابی اثر بازار سهم آب بر پایداری منابع آب زیرزمینی با تأکید بر قیمت تعادلی (مطالعه موردی: دشت قزوین) | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 57، شماره 2، اردیبهشت 1405، صفحه 491-512 اصل مقاله (1.33 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2026.407429.670066 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سیده مرضیه حسینی1؛ حامد مازندرانی زاده* 2؛ محمد محجوب3؛ حمید عزیزمحمدلو4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دوره دکتری، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین | ||
| 3دکتری شیمی، مدیر اجرایی پروژه بازار آب در استان قزوین. | ||
| 4گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره) ، قزوین ، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| کاهش تراز آب زیرزمینی در دشتهای ایران، از جمله دشت قزوین، نگرانیهای جدی دربارهی پایداری منابع آب و تداوم فعالیت کشاورزی ایجاد کرده است. جهت کاهش معضلات ناشی از کاهش حجم آبخوانها، ابزارهای اقتصادی جدیدی مانند بازار سهم آب برای مدیریت منابع آب زیرزمینی مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. از اسفند 1401 به منظور افزایش بهرهوری و حفاظت از منابع آب زیرزمینی، بازار سهم آب به طور رسمی در دشت قزوین تشکیل شده است و بر اساس سازوکار بازار شکل گرفته، حداقل 10 درصد از حجم معاملات به نفع آبخوان ضبط و ذخیره میگردد. در این پژوهش به منظور بررسی اثر تشکیل بازار آب بر تراز آب زیرزمینی به شبیهسازی تراز آب زیرزمینی تحت دو سناریو الف) وجود بازار آب و ب) نبود بازار آب، با استفاده از پویایی سیستمها در افق زمانی 25 ساله در بازار ثانویه پرداخته شده است. قیمت آب نقش کلیدی در ورود عرضه کنندگان و میزان عرضه به بازار دارد. به این منظور در ابتدا قیمت تعادلی بازار با استفاده از توابع عرضه و تقاضا محاسبه شد، سپس نرخ ورود به بازار با استفاده از ترکیب نرخ رشد خطی و لجستیک شبیهسازی گردید. نتایج نشان داد که تشکیل بازار آب موجب کاهش برداشت تجمعی آب زیرزمینی به میزان حدود 49 میلیون مترمکعب طی دوره 25 ساله نسبت به سناریوی بدون بازار میشود و تراز آب زیرزمینی را به میزان 19 سانتیمتر (معادل 5/0 درصد) بهبود میبخشد. با این حال، این میزان بهبود اندک بوده و حتی در سناریوی وجود بازار آب نیز روند کلی تراز آب زیرزمینی همچنان نزولی باقی میماند. بنابراین، بازار آب اگرچه میتواند بهعنوان ابزاری مکمل در مدیریت منابع آب زیرزمینی مؤثر باشد، اما بهتنهایی برای دستیابی به پایداری آبخوان دشت قزوین کافی نیست. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| بهرهوری؛ پایداری منابع آب؛ تراز آب؛ تعادل بخشی؛ قیمتگذاری | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Evaluating the Impact of the Water Rights Market on the Sustainability of Groundwater Resources with an Emphasis on Equilibrium Price (Case Study: Qazvin Plain) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Seyedeh Marziye Hosseini1؛ hamed mazandarani zadeh2؛ Mohammad Mahjoub3؛ Hamid Azizmohammadlou4 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Student, Water Science and Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran | ||
| 2associate professor, water eng. group, Imam Khomeini International University، Qazvin | ||
| 3PhD in Chemistry, Executive director of Qazvin province water rights market project. | ||
| 4Department of of Accounting, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The decline of groundwater levels in Iran's plains, including the Qazvin Plain, has raised serious concerns about the sustainability of water resources and the continuity of agricultural activities. To mitigate the problems arising from the depletion of aquifer volumes, new economic instruments, such as water rights markets, have been considered for managing groundwater resources. Since February 2023, in order to increase productivity and protect groundwater resources, a water rights market has been officially established in Qazvin Plain, and based on the established market mechanism, at least 10 percent of the transaction volume is recorded and stored for the benefit of the aquifer. In this study, in order to examine the effect of water market formation on groundwater level, the simulation of groundwater level under two scenarios (a) the existence of water market and (B) the absence of water market, using the dynamics of systems in the 25-year time horizon in the secondary market is paid. Water prices play a key role in the entry of suppliers and the amount of supply to the market. To this end, the market equilibrium price was initially calculated using supply and demand functions, then the market entry rate was simulated using a combination of linear growth rate and logistics. The results showed that the establishment of the water market leads to a cumulative reduction in groundwater abstraction of approximately 49 million cubic meters over a 25-year period compared to the no-market scenario, and improves the groundwater level by about 19 centimeters (equivalent to 0.5%). However, this improvement is limited, and even under the water market scenario, the overall trend of the groundwater level remains downward. Therefore, although the water market can be effective as a complementary instrument in groundwater resource management, it is not sufficient on its own to achieve the sustainability of the Qazvin Plain aquifer. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Partial Equilibrium, Pricing, Productivity, Water level, Water Resources Sustainability | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 137 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 113 |
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