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بررسی اقتصادی کشت بادام و گردو در شرایط آب و هوایی استان کرمان | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 57، شماره 3، خرداد 1405، صفحه 549-565 اصل مقاله (1.19 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2026.407436.670065 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محبوبه لرمحمد حسنی؛ رضوان طالب نژاد* ؛ مسعود نوشادی؛ علی رضا سپاسخواه | ||
| بخش مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در شرایط خشکسالی و کمبود آب در کشور ارزیابی اقتصادی و تعیین بهرهوری اقتصادی آب در باغات از اهمیت ویژهای برخوردار است. در این مقاله به بررسی کشت درختان بادام و گردو از دیدگاه اقتصادی در منطقه اسفندقه، شهرستان جیرفت در استان کرمان پرداخته شده است. بهمنظور ارزیابی اقتصادی از روشهای نرخ بازده داخلی، ارزش کنونی و نسبت منفعت به هزینه استفاده شد. دوره تحلیل اقتصادی در این طرح 50 سال در نظر گرفته شد. مقادیر نرخ بازده داخلی برای بادام 6/37 درصد و برای گردو 4/25 درصد محاسبه گردید. این نرخ برای پروژههای بلندمدت کشاورزی از قبیل پروژه مورد نظر نرخ قابل قبول است با توجه به اینکه نرخ بهره بلندمدت بانکی در سال 1400، 18 درصد بود و نرخ بازده داخلی در مقایسه با نرخ بهره بانکی عدد قابل توجهی است، بنابراین اجرای این پروژه در مقایسه با سپردهگذاری بانکی اولویت دارد. بر اساس نرخ بازده داخلی کشت درخت بادام از لحاظ اقتصادی در اولویت است. نسبت منفعت به هزینه محاسبه شده در نرخهای تنزیل 18، 23، 25 و 30 درصد در بادام به ترتیب 16/7، 06/7، 02/7 و 92/6 و در گردو به ترتیب 83/1، 21/1، 033/1 و 69/0 حاصل شد، با توجه به نسبت منفعت به هزینه محاسبه شده، بادام در نرخهای تنزیل مذکور از توجیه اقتصادی برخوردار است در حالی که گردو در نرخ تنزیل بزرگتر از 25 توجیه اقتصادی ندارد. از طرفی هم بهرهوری اقتصادی حاصل شده برای درختان بادام در نرخهای تنزیل 18، 23، 25 و 30 درصد عدد مثبتی حاصل شد در حالی در گردو در نرخ تنزیل 30 درصد عدد منفی محاسبه شد. بنابراین در منطقه مورد مطالعه کاشت درخت بادام نسبت به گردو صرفه اقتصادی بیشتری دارد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| بهرهوری اقتصادی آب؛ کمبود آب؛ نسبت منفعت به هزینه؛ نرخ بازده داخلی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Economic Water Productivity and Determining the Profitability of Almond and Walnut Cultivation in Jiroft County | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mahboobeh Lor Mohammad Hasani؛ Rezvan Talebnejad؛ Masoud Noshadi؛ Ali Reza Sepaskhah | ||
| Water Engineering Department,,. Faculty of Agriculture. Shiraz University. Shraz. Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In conditions of drought and water shortage in the country, economic evaluation and determination of the economic productivity of water in orchards is of particular importance. This article examines the cultivation of almond and walnut trees from an economic perspective in the Esfandaghe region Jiroft County of Kerman province. For economic evaluation, internal rate of return, present value, and benefit-cost ratio methods were used. The economic analysis period in this plan was considered to be 50 years. The internal rate of return values was calculated as 37.6 percent for almonds and 25.4 percent for walnuts. This rate is an acceptable rate for long-term agricultural projects such as the project in question, given that the long-term bank interest rate in 1400 was 18 percent and the internal rate of return is a significant number compared to the bank interest rate, so implementing this project has priority compared to bank deposits. Based on the internal rate of return, almond tree cultivation is economically preferred. The calculated benefit-cost ratio at discount rates of 18, 23, 25, and 30 percent was 7.16, 7.06, 7.02, and 6.92 for almonds, respectively, and 1.83, 1.21, 1.033, and 0.69 for walnuts. According to the calculated benefit-cost ratio, almonds are economically justified at the aforementioned discount rates, while walnuts are not economically justified at a discount rate greater than 25. On the other hand, the economic productivity obtained for almond trees at discount rates of 18, 23, 25, and 30 percent was positive, while for walnuts at a discount rate of 30 percent, it was negative. Therefore, in the study area, planting almond trees is more economically profitable than walnuts. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Benefit-cost ratio, Economic Water productivity, Internal rate of return, Water scarcity | ||
| مراجع | ||
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