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Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran | ||
| Iranian Economic Review | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 12، شماره 18، فروردین 2007، صفحه 1-28 اصل مقاله (517.5 K) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2007.31000 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in 1970s (1350s) and 1980s (1360s) gross domestic product (contained oil) data of Iran. This article shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no-trend-break null hypothesis at the 5% significance level. A key part of the argument is that conventionally computed p values overstate the likelihood of the trend-break alternative hypothesis. This is because they do not take into account that, in practice, the data is chosen based on pretest examination of the data. | ||
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