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مدل سازی فراسنج های اقلیمی استان خراسان جنوبی | ||
| پژوهش های جغرافیای طبیعی | ||
| مقاله 4، دوره 46، شماره 3، آبان 1393، صفحه 311-332 اصل مقاله (2.29 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله کامل | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jphgr.2014.52134 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| بهروز سبحانی1؛ فخری سادات فاطمی نیا* 2 | ||
| 1دانشیار آبوهواشناسی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری آبوهواشناسی کشاورزی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| اقلیم و تغییرات آن، نقش مهمی در همۀ ابعاد زندگی انسان ایفا میکند و به همین دلیل پیشبینی اقلیم آینده که متکی بر مدلهای گردش عمومی جو انجام میگیرد، از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. در این پژوهش، داده های سناریوی A1B مدلهای گردش عمومی جو BCM2 و IPCM4، برای ارزیابی تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر دمای کمینه و بیشینه، تابش و بارش در هفت ایستگاه همدید استان خراسان جنوبی بهکمک مدل آماری LARS-WG ریزمقیاس شدند. برای این کار سه مرحلۀ واسنجی، صحت سنجی و مدلسازی مدلها در ایستگاه های منتخب انجام گرفت و کارایی مدلها از نظر شباهت مقادیر مشاهده شده و مقادیر شبیه سازی شده با استفاده از شاخص های خطا، مانند ریشۀ میانگین مربعات و ضریب تعیین ارزیابی شد. نتایج حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها در لارس، مکنز، سنس استیمیتور و من کندال، نشان داد که دمای کمینه، دمای بیشینه و تبخیر و تعرق در تمام شهرهای استان خراسان جنوبی (بجز قائن با افزایش بسیار جزئی بارش) طی2060-2011 روند افزایشی خواهند داشت، بقیۀ ایستگاه ها روند کاهشی بارش را شاهد خواهند بود. همچنین به‌جزبه‌جز قائن و فردوس، در بقیۀ ایستگاهها روند افزایشی تابش مشاهده خواهد شد. طبق برآوردها، روند افزایشی دما در بیرجند و قائن کمتر بوده و در طبس بیشتر خواهد بود. چنین به نظر میرسد که تغییرات نهچندان شدید فراسنجها در برخی ایستگاهها، بهدلیل موقعیت ویژۀ جغرافیایی و توپوگرافی منطقه است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| استان خراسان جنوبی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ روند؛ مدل گردش عمومی جو؛ LARS-W | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Modelling of Climatic Parameters in Province of Southern Khorasan | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Behrooz Sobhany1؛ Fakhry Sadat Fateminiya2 | ||
| 1Associate Prof. in Climatology, University of Mohaghegh Ardebily, Ardebil, Iran | ||
| 2PhD Candidate of Agricultural Climatology, University of Mohaghegh Ardebily, Ardebil, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction Climate change has played an important role in all aspects of human life. Therefore, climate predictions in atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) will have particular importance. In this study, downscaling by A1B scenarios, IPCM4 and BCM2 of atmosphere general circulation models in LARS-WG model are used for analysis of climate change impacts on maximum and minimum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. The data have been gathered from 7 Synoptic stations in province of Southern Khorasan. For this purpose, assessment process of simulation and observation data are conducted by three steps, including calibration, validation and modelling. To evaluate the agreement between the observed and simulated data, two indexes were used; Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Determination (CD). The results of analysis in Makesens, Sin’s Estimator and Mann-Kendall showed that minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration in all stations will be increased in years of 2011-2060. The results have shown that rainfall in all stations (except Ghaen station) will be decreased and solar radiation in all stations (except Ghaen and Ferdous station) will also be increased. Increasing trend in temperature in Birjand and Ghaen station will be lower and in Tabas Station will be higher. It may be appeared that weak changes in climatic parameters in some stations are related to specific geographical conditions and topography of this region. Climate change in the past and today would change the pattern of human life and it seems that humans and their activities are causing the global climate change. Uncontrolled growth of population, transportation and other human activities, particularly pollution resulted from industries lead to major changes in climate. After the industrial revolution changes in global climate such as increases in extreme climatic events have appeared due to the excessive use of fossil fuels and land use change. At present, this variability has become a major concern of climatologists and weathermen. Therefore, attention to researcher long term forecast about climate parameters for change value help decrease the effects of ill climate change. Atmospheric general circulation models to assess future climate is one of the common methods. Meanwhile, LARS-WG model as one of the general circulation models of the atmosphere is important for future climate change and has led to some efforts by many scholars. The high accuracy of climate data modelling in different climatic stations has been confirmed by many researchers. Methodology In this study at first, daily statistics including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall and radiation related to 7 Synoptic stations in province of Southern Khorasan were obtained from meteorological organization of Iran (Table: 1). Table 1: Geographical characteristics of the sample stations Stations LON LAT ElE Birjand 59 12 32 52 1491 Boshruyeh 57 27 33 54 885 Ferdous 58 10 34 10 1293 Ghaen 55 05 33 47 845 Khour 58 28 32 56 1117 Nehbandan 58 48 36 16 1213 Tabas 56 55 33 36 711 In Second step, some weather data have been produced by using parameters listed in Lars models. Two BCM2 IPCM4 models for each synoptic station in South Khorasan are used in this study to arrive target modeling data under scenario A1B. After entering data into the model Lars-wg and getting the trends in the observed time series data, we have attempted to reproduce the data at the stations during 2011- 2060.. Finally, the simulated data are compared with observed data using statistical analysis and graphing. They have also examined the ability of the model to simulate meteorological data in stations. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (CD)have also been applied. If the RMSE values are closer to zero, this indicates the observed and simulated values are closer to each other and to be more precise answers in each step. Results and Discussion The results of the research showed that BCM2-A1B models in Birjand, Boshruyeh, Ferdous, Nehbandan and Tabas and IPCM4-A1B models in Ghaen, have the lowest simulated values. Distribution of annual minimum temperature simulated for the period 2011-2060 shows that the Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 46 (3), Fall 2014 11 minimum temperature in southern Khorasan province is 0.02 per year and the coefficient of determination of 0.09 is increasing and that the minimum temperature during the five decades can be changed between 11.4 to 12.9 degrees. The simulations conducted by LARS-WG models over the next fifty years will change in the average of minimum temperature among the Synoptic stations of provinces, from 7.5 degrees in Ghaen to 17 degrees in Tabas. The average of maximum temperature will also change from 23 degrees in Ghaen to 30 degrees in Tabas. In province of South Khorasan, the average of minimum temperature is 12 degrees and the average of maximum temperature is 26.6 degrees. Increasing trend of temperature in Birjand and Ghaen stations will be lower and in Tabas Station higher. Obviously, due to the lower temperature, the cities of Ghaen and Birjand will experience more precipitation. Nehbandan, Tabas and Khor will have the highest mean radiation in cities and Birjand will receive the lowest evapotranspiration and radiation and Tabas the highest rates of evapotranspiration. Conclusion From the results this can be concluded that BCM2-A1B models in Birjand Boshruyeh, Ferdous, Nehbandan and Tabas and IPCM4-A1B models in Ghaen have the lowest differences imulated values with observed values. Results of LARS model simulations for the next fifty years showed an average low temperature in Ghaen and Birjand cities. The Birjand has the lowest rates of evapotranspiration and Tabas the highest temperature and the least amount of precipitation. Ghaen had not seen much rain, but relative to other stations it will have weak increasing trend. The results of analysis of Makesens, Sin’s Estimator and Mann-Kendall showed that in the years from 2011 to 2060 we will experience an increase in the minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration in all the stations and also a decrease in all (except Ghaen station). It will also observe an increasing trend in radiation in all stations except for Ghaen and Ferdous. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| climate change, general circulation model, LARS_WG, Province of Southern Khorasan, trend | ||
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