Forecasting changes in agricultural employment rate in Gilan Province using some economic indicators | ||
| تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران | ||
| Article 7, Volume 45, Issue 4, January 2015, Pages 651-661 PDF (563.06 K) | ||
| Document Type: Research Paper | ||
| DOI: 10.22059/ijaedr.2014.53839 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Karim Naderi Mahdeie* 1; Mohamad Hasan Fetros2; Mahdi Khayati1 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor and Ph.D. Candidate, Agricultural Development, Abo Alisina University, Hamedan, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Silence of Society, Abo Alisina University, Hamedan, Iran | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The overall aim of the present study was to estimate the time series of agricultural employment in the Gilan province during 1976-2011, and modeling and forecasting employment using artificial neural networks for years 2012-2019. For this purpose, employment series calculated by interpolation and input variables selected based on previous theoretical and empirical research. Finally, number of agricultural work force predicted through designing and training of different neural networks architectures. Required data obtained through population and housing report of 1976-2011 and provincial statistical year books. Results showed that number of employees during the period from 2012-2014 will be lower than in 2011 and then during 2015 to 2019 will be increased. Due to lack of time series data of economic variables at the regional level, this research is an essential and primary step to achieve reliable statistics of number of agricultural employment at provincial level that Provide required data for future studies on labor market and can be used for planning and policy making by related authorities. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Agricultural sector; Artificial Neural Networks; employment forecasting | ||
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