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بررسی رابطة تولید مرتع با پارامترهای اقلیمی مؤثر و شاخص‌های خشکسالی در مراتع ندوشن | ||
| نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 10، دوره 68، شماره 1، خرداد 1394، صفحه 131-148 اصل مقاله (704.21 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jrwm.2015.53890 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سمانه محمدی مقدم1؛ ابوالفضل مساعدی* 2؛ محمد جنگجو3؛ منصور مصداقی4 | ||
| 1کارشناس ارشد مرتع‌داری، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد | ||
| 2استاد دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد | ||
| 3دانشیار دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد | ||
| 4استاد مدعو، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد | ||
| چکیده | ||
| با آنکه بارندگی مهم‌ترین عامل تأثیرگذار در تولید مرتع است، اطلاعات اندکی دربارة روابط تولید مرتع تحت تأثیر متقابل عوامل آبوهوایی و، به‌ویژه، شاخص‌های خشکسالی وجود دارد. این پژوهش با هدف بررسی ارتباط تولید مرتع با عوامل آبوهوایی بارندگی، دما، تبخیر، تعرق، شاخص‌های خشکسالی بارش استانداردشده (SPI)، و شناسایی خشکسالی (RDI) در منطقة ندوشن واقع در استان یزد انجام شده است. بدین منظور، در مورد هر عامل 33 دورة زمانی مختلف، شامل دوره‌های یک تا چهارماهه، شش‌ماهه، و نُه‌ماهه‌ـ به عنوان متغیرهایی که ممکن است در تولید گیاهی مرتع مؤثر باشند‌ـ درنظر گرفته شد. برای کاهش حجم داده‌ها از روش تجزیه به مؤلفه‌های اصلی استفاده شد. به منظور تعیین بهترین رابطه بین تولید با عوامل آبوهوایی و شاخص‌های خشکسالی از روابط رگرسیونی استفاده شد. رابطه‌های رگرسیونی مختلف برای متغیر‌های انتخاب‌شده از روش تجزیه به مؤلفه‌ها بررسی شد. در نهایت، در هر روش رابطه‌ای که دارای کمترین خطای نقطة ایده‌آل (IPE) بود رابطة برتر شناخته شد. با مقایسة رابطه‌هایی که بر اساس بارندگی، دما، تبخیر و تعرق، شاخص بارش استانداردشده، و شاخص شناسایی خشکسالی به‌دست آمد، رابطة به‌دست‌آمده از شاخص شناسایی خشکسالی به عنوان رابطه‌ای که برآورد مناسب‌تری از تولید مراتع دارد (969/0=R و میانگین قدر مطلق خطای نسبی معادل 111/0) انتخاب شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بارندگی؛ تولید مرتع؛ خشکسالی؛ شاخص بارش استانداردشده؛ شاخص شناسایی خشکسالی؛ ندوشن | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigation on relation between rangelands production with effective climatic parameters and drought indices in Noudushan, Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| samaneh Mohammadi Moghaddam1؛ Abolfazl Mosaedi2؛ Mohammad Jankju3؛ Mansour Mesdaghi4 | ||
| 11Former M.Sc. Student of rangeland Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad | ||
| 2Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad | ||
| 33Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad | ||
| 4Invited Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Although precipitation is the most important factor which effects rangeland production, but there is little information on the relationship between production and the interactions of climatic factors and specially drought indices. .In this research, the relation between production and climatic factors of rainfall, temperature, evapo- transpiration, and as well as drought indices of Standardized Precipitation Index )SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were investigated in Noudoshan Rangelands.Then the data with 33 variables were generated for different time periods of one to four months based the years of available production data. PCA was employed to decrease the number of variable and based on further component analysis, some variable were selected. To find the relation between production and climatic factors, regression analysis was used. Finally, the model with least IPE was selected as preferred model. By comparison equations based on rainfall, temperature, evapo- transpiration, and drought indices, the model resulted from RDI, selected as preferred range production estimator (R=0.969, MARE=0.111). | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| range production, Rainfall, Drought, Reconnaissance Drought Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, Noudoshan | ||
| مراجع | ||
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