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تصمیمگیری چندشاخصة دومرحلهای برای ارزیابی پایداری گزینههای احیای دریاچة ارومیه | ||
| نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 68، شماره 2، شهریور 1394، صفحه 197-212 اصل مقاله (795.89 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jrwm.2015.54919 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی آذرنیوند* 1؛ محمد ابراهیم بنی حبیب2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2دانشیار پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| نیازهای در حال تحول حوضة دریاچة ارومیه، با توجه به رشد جمعیت، ایجاد تعادل بین عرضه و تقاضای آب را در این زیستبوم دشوار ساخته و وضعیتی بحرانی را در تأمین نیاز اکولوژیکی دریاچه رقم زده است. در این شرایط منابع آب حوضه باید در چارچوبی پایدار مدیریت شود. از این رو، از چارچوب تصمیمگیری چندشاخصه استفاده شد تا برتری گزینههای موجود برای تأمین آب یا حفاظت از این منابع مشخص شود. وزن شاخصهای توسعة پایدار در ساختاری سلسله‌مراتبی و بر اساس مقایسة زوجی تعیین و، به جای پیروی از قالب معمول، از روش درجهبندی استفاده شد. این روش، به جای مقایسة گزینهها، مقیاسهای کیفی را به صورت زوجی مقایسه میکند و مشکل وارونگی رتبهها و وقتگیربودن فرایند نظرسنجی را برطرف میسازد. برای ارزیابی گزینهها نیز از مدل VIKOR استفاده شد؛ این مدل قابلیت ارائة مجموعهای از راهحلهای توافقی را به جای یک جواب داراست. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نشان داد VIKOR مدلی مطلوب و مؤثر برای رتبهبندی گزینههای مدیریت منابع آب به‌شمار میرود و مطابق نتایج این رویکردِ دومرحلهایِ سلسله‌مراتبی- توافقی رویارویی با بحران آب در حوضه با هدفمندساختن مشارکت جوامع محلی، بهینهسازی، و حفاظت از منابع طبیعی موجود امکانپذیر به‌نظر میرسد و همچنین اتکای کلیشهای به تأمین آب بر اساس احداث سازههای آبی جدید بدون ارزیابیهای مربوط به توسعة پایدار کارگشا نخواهد بود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| بحران آب؛ پایداری؛ روش درجهبندی؛ ساختار سلسله‌مراتبی؛ Vikor | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Two Stage Multi Attributes Decision Making to Evaluate the Sustainability of Lake Urmia Restoration Alternatives | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| ali azarnivand1؛ Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib2 | ||
| 1PhD student, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Associate Professor, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Owing to the oncoming needs and increasing the population of Lake Urmia Watershed, providing equilibrium between water supply and demand seems quite challenging and the Lake cannot be successful in meeting its ecological demands in this critical condition. In this unfavorable situation, water resources must be managed through a sustainable context. With this knowledge in hand, a multi attributes framework was applied to investigate the preference of supply or conservation alternatives. Preference of sustainable development attributes was calculated in a pairwise hierarchical structure and instead of time-consuming conventional procedure, Absolute Measurement was used that compares qualitative scales instead of alternatives and can overcome the problem of rank reversal in pairwise comparison. Ranks of the Alternatives were evaluated by VIKOR method which can provide a set of compromise solutions instead of one solution. Due to sensitivity analysis performance, VIKOR was introduced as a robust model in ranking the water resources alternatives. With regards to the results of this two-stage hierarchical-compromising approach, dealing with Watershed crisis is depended on organized indigenous collaboration, water use optimization and protecting available natural resources. On the other hand, supplying water by structural development without sustainability consideration would not be effective. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Water Crisis, Sustainability, Absolute Measurement, hierarchical structure, Vikor | ||
| مراجع | ||
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