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Modeling Iran`s Underground Economy: A Fuzzy Logic Approach | ||
| Iranian Economic Review | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 19، شماره 1، فروردین 2015، صفحه 91-106 اصل مقاله (600.64 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2015.55164 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Mohammad Hossien Pourkazemi1؛ Mohammad Naser Sherafat2؛ Zahra Delfan Azari* 3 | ||
| 1Faculty member, Shahid Beheshti University,Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Faculty member, Ph.D. Shahid Beheshti University,Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Graduate student, M.A. Shahid Beheshti University,Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The underground economy has long been of interest to economists and has devoted extensive studies to itself in economic literature. Through fuzzy logic approach in present research, we estimated the size of underground economy of Iran over the period of 1978-2010. For this purpose and according to theoretical bases and previous studies, variables such as GDP per capita, ratio of direct taxes to GDP and an index of business environment for considering the effect of institutional structures have been used as the most important explanatory variables for estimating country's underground economy. For considering the quality of institutions in this research we have used a local index for the first time compared with other internal studies. Our results indicate an oscillatory trend as the average of relative and absolute size of underground economy has decreased during the years of first development plan compared with period of war and revolution but increased during the second plan compared with the first one. Also it has decreased over the years of third plan in comparison with the second one but again it has increased during the fourth development plan. According to the results, the average of relative size of underground economy to official output during the years of war and revolution, first, second, third and the fourth development plan was approximately estimated 21, 12, 29, 19 and 20 percent respectively. During the entire period it was approximately 20 percent. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Business environment؛ Fuzzy logic؛ Underground Economy | ||
| مراجع | ||
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1. Akbarpour Roshan, N. (2010). "An estimation of tax evasion arising from informal activites in Iran during 1991-2007", M.A. thesis, Allameh Tabatabayi University 2. Akhbari, Mohammad, Akhbari, Mahdiyeh and Aghababayi, R. (2011). "A fuzzy logic approach to modeling smuggling index of Iran's economy", Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics,7(4), winter 2011, 117-149 3. Arabmazar, Abbas and Ahmadian, M. (2011)."The effect of business environment index on private investment in Iran", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1(4), winter 2011, 53-82 4. Arabmazar Yazdi, Ali (2001). "Black Economy in Iran: size, causes and consequences during the last three decades", Journal of plan and budget, No.62 and 63, 3-60 5. Bagheri Garmaroudi, A.R. (1998). "The underground economy: estimation and consequences on budget deficit and private investment during 1971-1995", M.A. thesis, Shahid Beheshti University 6. Ene, C.M. and Hurduc, N. (2010). "A Fuzzy Model To Estimate Romanian Underground Economy", Internal Auditing & Risk Management, 2(18), June 7. Enste, D.H. (2010). "Shadow Economy-The Impact of Regulation in OECD-countries", International Economic Journal, 24(4), December, 555-571 8. Gërxhani, K. (1999). " The Informal Sector in Developed and Less Developed Countries: A Literature Survey", Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 083/2 9. Giles, D.E.A. (1999). "Modeling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand", Empirical Economics, Vol. 24, March, 621-640 10. Haghpanahan, H. (2005). "Relation between formal and underground economy in Iran", M.A. thesis, Shahid Beheshti University 11. Hui-Kuang Yu, T., Wang, D.H.M. and Chen, S.J. (2005). "A fuzzy logic approach to modeling the underground economy in Taiwan" , Physica A , No.362 , 471-479 12. Kemal, M. A. (2007). "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan: Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy", MPRA Paper, No. 2226 ,November 13. Khandan, A. (2009). "Estimating an index for the size of informal economy of Iran during 1971-2007 with focus on effect of government interference causing disorder through EMIMIC method", M.A. thesis, Sharif University 14. Sahrayi, N. (2006). "Estimating the underground economy of Iran during 1973-2005", M.A. thesis, Tehran University 15. Schneider, F. and Buehn, A. (2010). "Shadow Economies All over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007", Policy Research Working Paper ,5356 , July | ||
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