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جداسازی اثرات تغییرپذیری اقلیمی و فعالیتهای انسانی بر رواناب حوضۀ آبخیز بختگان | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 9، دوره 2، شماره 4، دی 1394، صفحه 445-454 اصل مقاله (789.49 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2015.58070 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| حمیدرضا قره‌چایی1؛ علیرضا مقدم نیا* 2؛ آرش ملکیان2؛ آزاده احمدی3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج | ||
| 2دانشیار، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج | ||
| 3استادیار، دانشکدۀ عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| اکوسیستمهای مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک حساسیت بسیار زیادی در برابر تغییرات دارند. نوسانات در متغیرهای اقلیمی و افزایش فعالیتهای انسانی دگرگونی در فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی این اکوسیستمها و به تبع آن تخریب ساختار آن‌ها را به‌دنبال دارد. در این پژوهش به‌منظور ارزیابی کمّی تأثیرات تغییرپذیری اقلیمی و فعالیتهای انسانی بر فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی حوضۀ آبخیز بختگان، دادههای هیدرو‌ـ اقلیمی این حوضه در دورۀ آماری 1351ـ 1391 تجزیه و تحلیل شد. ترکیب آزمونهای آماری در تحلیل روند و تعیین نقاط تغییر آشکار ساختند که رواناب حوضه در 40 سال گذشته کاهش معناداری داشته است. نقطۀ تغییر رخ‌داده در رواناب در سال 1378؛ رواناب سالانۀ این حوضه را به دو دوره تقسیم کرد. دورۀ 1351ـ 1378 به‌منزلۀ دورۀ پایه برای واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی و دورۀ 1379ـ 1391 دورهای که تأثیرات فعالیتهای انسانی بر رواناب مشهود بوده است، به‌منظور پردازش مدل استفاده شد. سپس روش تحلیل حساسیت هیدرولوژیک رویکردی بود که بر‌اساس بارش و تبخیر تعرق پتانسیل، تأثیرات تغییرپذیری اقلیمی و فعالیتهای انسانی روی رواناب را ارزیابی کرد. با توجه به تحلیلهای انجام‌شده سهم تغییرپذیری اقلیمی در کاهش رواناب حوضۀ آبخیز بختگان 45/62 درصد و سهم فعالیتهای انسانی 55/37 درصد برآورد شد. این نتایج میتواند به‌منظور تهیۀ منبعی برای ارزیابی و مدیریت منابع آب و حفظ یکپارچگی اکوسیستم منطقهای بسیار مفید باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییرپذیری اقلیمی؛ حوضۀ آبخیز بختگان؛ روش تحلیل حساسیت هیدرولوژیکی؛ فعالیتهای انسانی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Separation of the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff of Bakhtegan Basin | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Hamidreza Gharechaei1؛ Alireza Moghaddam Nia2؛ Arash Malekian2؛ Azadeh Ahmadi3 | ||
| 1P.hD. Student, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj | ||
| 3Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Arid and semi-arid ecosystems are very sensitivity to changes. Fluctuations in climate variables and increasing human activities; result in the changes in hydrological processes of these ecosystems, and consequently, their structures degradation. In this study, hydro-climatic data of the Bakhtegan basin for the period of 1972–2011, were analyzed to assess effects of climate variability and human activities on hydrology processes of the study area. A combined analysis of statistical tests for trend analysis and change pointe detection indicated that the basin runoff had have a significant decreasing trend over last 40 years. The change point of runoff occurred in 1999, the annual runoff of the study basin divided into two periods. The period of 1972–1999 was used as the base period for calibration and validation, and the period of 2000-2011 as a human-induced period for the model processing. Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was the approach employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff. According to the analyses conducted, contribution of climate variability in the runoff reduction of Bakhtegan basin was estimated equal to 62.45% and contribution of human activities equal to 37.55%. These results can be very useful as a reference for regional water resources assessment; management and maintaining the integrity of regional ecosystems. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Human activities, Climate variability, hydrological Sensitivity based method, Bakhtegan Basin | ||
| مراجع | ||
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