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شناسایی الگوهای پیوند از دور مؤثر بر بارش حوضۀ کارون | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 8، دوره 3، شماره 1، فروردین 1395، صفحه 95-105 اصل مقاله (614.96 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2016.59193 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| داریوش رحیمی* 1؛ خدایار عبداللهی2؛ سادات هاشمی نسب3 | ||
| 1دانشیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه اصفهان | ||
| 2استادیار دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی دانشگاه شهرکرد | ||
| 3دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم شناسی دانشگاه اصفهان | ||
| چکیده | ||
| الگوهای پیوند از دور جزء سازندگان کلان‌اقلیم در مقیاسهای منطقهای و جهانی هستند. شناخت الگوهای پیوند از دور مؤثر بر بارش حوضۀ آبی کارون بزرگ؛ هدف این پژوهش است. بدین‌منظور دادههای بارش فصلی ایستگاههای موجود در حوضه طی دورۀ آماری (1956ـ 2012) و 12 الگوی پیوند از دور بررسی شدهاند. روش انجام کارِ تحلیلِ دادهها با تکنیکهای آماری همبستگی و تحلیل مؤلفههای اصلی است. جایگاه نخست در این حوضه با 7/49 درصد بارش در فصل زمستان، فصل پاییز با 9/34 درصد در جایگاه دوم و فصل بهار با 9/14 درصد در جایگاه سوم قرار دارد. نتایج بررسیها نشان میدهد که بارشهای پاییزه بیشتر از الگوهای نوسانات جنوبی NINO4، NINO1+2،NINO3.4 و SOI تأثیر میپذیرند. مقادیر منفی ضریب همبستگی بین بارش فصل پاییز و شاخص SOI و واریانس تبیینی بیش از 77 درصد این شاخص نشانگر آن است که میزان بارشهای پاییزه تحت تأثیر النینو قرار دارند. تحلیل بارشهای زمستانه و بهاره نیز بیانگر تأثیر شاخص الگوی اسکاندیناوی در فاز مثبت (SCAN+) بر بارشها در این دو فصل است. این شاخص به‌دلیل استقرار در محدودۀ جغرافیایی‌ـ اقلیمی سامانههایی مانند پرفشار دریای سیاه، جبهۀ قطبی و بادهای غربی تا 68 درصد از تغییرات فصل سرد سال را تبیین می‌کند. بارشهای تابستانۀ حوضه عمدتاً تابع عوامل محلی هستند و پدیدههای پیوند از دور در آن مؤثر نیستند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| اسکاندیناوی؛ انسو؛ بارش فصلی؛ پیوند از دور؛ حوضۀ کارون بزرگ | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Identify Tele-connection Patterns affecting on Rainfall in Karoon Basin | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Dariush Rahimi1؛ Khodayar Abdollahi2؛ Sadat Hasheminasab33 | ||
| 1Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Isfahan, Iran. | ||
| 2Assistant Professor, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran | ||
| 3Final year PhD. student in Climatology, Faculty of Geography, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The Tele-connection patterns are the major constituents of climate at global and regional scale(s). The Karoon Basin is of a vital stance in providing natural water supply and hydroelectric; this basin is facing major fluctuations in rainfall regime. Identifying the effect of Tele-connection on great Karoon Basin rainfall regime is the subject of this study. To accomplish this objective the seasonal-annual rainfall volumes recorded at stations related to this basin are assessed for the period of (1956-2012) through 12 Tele-connection patterns. The method applied here is the data analysis through correlation statistical techniques and analysis of the main climatic components. In this basin, 49.7% of precipitation is of the winter followed by autumn with 34.9% and spring with 14.9%. The findings of the analysis indicate that the precipitation in autumn is influenced mostly by NINO4, NINO1+2, NINO3.4 and SOI patterns. The analysis of winter and spring precipitation reveals the influence of SCAN+ phase on both these seasons. The precipitations of the basin do have a harmonized change pattern with Tele-connection pattern by addressing the delay time. It is deduced that these indicators can contribute to moist and dry cycle’s occurrence when the planning regarding this basin is of concern. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Rainfall regime, Scandinavia index, ENSO, Tele-connection, Karoon Basin | ||
| مراجع | ||
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