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تأثیرات حفاظتی تغییر اقلیم براساس ریزمقیاس سازی دمای پیش بینی‌شده در قرن 21 (مطالعۀ موردی: دو ایستگاه ارازکوسه و نوده در استان گلستان) | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 9، دوره 3، شماره 4، دی 1395، صفحه 597-609 اصل مقاله (765 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2016.60361 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مریم احمدوند کهریزی1؛ حامد روحانی* 2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه گنبد کاووس، گنبدکاووس، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه گنبد کاووس، گنبدکاووس، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| ارزیابی تأثیرات بالقوۀ تغییرات اقلیم در قرن 21 میلادی بر توزیع گونهها و فرایندهای اکولوژیکی به سناریوهای اقلیمی با تفکیکپذیری مکانی کافی نیاز دارد. در پژوهش حاضر عملکرد سناریوهای SRES و RCP در پیشبینی دمای کمینه و بیشینۀ ایستگاههای ارازکوسه و نوده، واقع در استان گلستان در دورههای زمانی 2046ـ 2065 و 2080ـ 2099 نسبت به دورۀ پایه 1986ـ 2005 مقایسه شد. بدین‌منظور از هشت مدل GCM و شش سناریوی انتشار و مدل‌های ریزمقیاس‌نمای LARS-WG و SDSM استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد در بین سناریوهای انتشار قدیم، A1B و در بین سناریوهای جدید، RCP 8.5 بیشترین افزایش دما را برای هر دو ایستگاه پیشبینی کردند. مقدار افزایش دما به‌طور نسبی از سناریوی RCP 2.6 به سمت سناریوی RCP 8.5 افزایش مییابد. در هر دو سناریوهای جدید و قدیم، دمای تابستان آینده ممکن است با نرخ بیشتری نسبت به دیگر فصول افزایش یابد. همچنین در این تحقیق گستردهتربودن تغییرات دما با مدل MICP5 و سناریوهای RCP نسبت به مدل‌های MICP3 و سناریوهای SRES به‌وضوح مشاهده شد. تفاوتها در پیشبینیها توسط سناریوها بیانگر وجود عدم قطعیت است. به‌طور کلی، عدم قطعیت به محدودۀ وسیعی از برآورد تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم منجر میشود. بنابراین، با توجه به پیشبینیهای متنوع آیندۀ دما، در صورت انتخاب فقط یک یا تعداد محدودی از مدل‌های گردش عمومی جوّ، برداشتی اشتباه دربارۀ تغییرات اقلیمی آینده ایجاد میشود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| سناریوی انتشار؛ سناریوی مسیر غلظت؛ عدم قطعیت؛ LARS-WG؛ SDSM | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Assessing the conservation impacts of climate change based on temperature projected on 21 century (Case study: Arazkoseh and Nodeh stations) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Maryam Ahmadvand Kahrizi1؛ Hamed Rouhani2 | ||
| 1MSc Student of Watershed Management, Gonbad Kavous University, Iran | ||
| 2Dep. Of Range and Watershed Management, Gonbad KavousUniversity, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution. In this study we projected future changes in maximum temperature and minimum temperature under CMIP3 SRES and CMIP5 RCPs scenarios with two station-based datasets (Arazkoseh and Nodeh) of the eastern Golestan province. Change scenarios (2046-2065 and 2080-2099) are compared to the reference period (1986-2005).Therefore, 8 GCM models under 6 emission scenarios are downscaled by LARS-WG and SDSM. The results indicated that the largest increase in temperature among the old emission scenarios and new emission scenario are projected by A1B and RCP8.5, respectively. The variation between model projections is considerable. The uncertainty range is large for the change in warm seasonal period. For the two future periods, the downscaling methods produce seasonal increases in the temperature with an almost ordinal order of summer, spring, winter and autumn. Also, results show that temperature indices based on seasonal maxima are generally projected to increase more than minima. In general, uncertainty generates large spread ranges of estimated climate change impacts, therefore due to wide ranges of temperatures projection, to provide a complete picture of possible climate change impact studies that focus on a single or a few of climate models open to the charge of cherry-picking. Keywords: . | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Emission scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways, LARS-WG, SDSM, Uncertainty | ||
| مراجع | ||
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