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گیلان پور, امید, پاکروان, محمد رضا, طاهری, عمران. (1395). تحلیل ساختار واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران با تاکید بر بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز (کاربرد روش EGARCH و VECM). , 47(4), 785-804. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2016.61309
امید گیلان پور; محمد رضا پاکروان; عمران طاهری. "تحلیل ساختار واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران با تاکید بر بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز (کاربرد روش EGARCH و VECM)". , 47, 4, 1395, 785-804. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2016.61309
گیلان پور, امید, پاکروان, محمد رضا, طاهری, عمران. (1395). 'تحلیل ساختار واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران با تاکید بر بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز (کاربرد روش EGARCH و VECM)', , 47(4), pp. 785-804. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2016.61309
گیلان پور, امید, پاکروان, محمد رضا, طاهری, عمران. تحلیل ساختار واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران با تاکید بر بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز (کاربرد روش EGARCH و VECM). , 1395; 47(4): 785-804. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2016.61309

تحلیل ساختار واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران با تاکید بر بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز (کاربرد روش EGARCH و VECM)

تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
مقاله 2، دوره 47، شماره 4، دی 1395، صفحه 785-804    اصل مقاله (451.72 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijaedr.2016.61309
نویسندگان
امید گیلان پور* 1؛ محمد رضا پاکروان2؛ عمران طاهری2
1عضو هیات علمی موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی اقتصادی کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی
2دانش آموخته دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
افزایش تقاضای روز افزون کالاهای کشاورزی و همچنین مدیریت ضعیف استفاده از منابع موجود در کشور سبب شده تا به منظور برطرف ساختن نیاز داخلی، بخش عظیمی از درآمدهای کشور صرف واردات این نوع کالاها شود. لذا به منظور مدیریت هر چه بهتر واردات محصولات کشاورزی و شناسای ابزارهای لازم به منظور کنترل واردات بی‌رویه برخی از این محصولات، در مطالعه حاضر، الگوی واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران (گندم، جو، ذرت، شکر، برنج، گوشت مرغ، گوشت قرمز، تخم مرغ و دانه‌های روغنی) برای دوره‌ی زمانی 90-1360 مورد تحلیل و ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که سیاست‌های قیمتی در واردات محصولات تخم مرغ، گوشت مرغ و گندم، به دلیل اثرگذاری بیشتر، از اهمیت بالاتری برخوردار است. همچنین متغیر تعرفه وارداتی در محصولات گندم، گوشت قرمز و جو، به عنوان ابزاری از سیاست‌های تجاری حائز اهمیت بیشتری می‎باشد. در نهایت بررسی متغیر نوسانات نرخ ارز نیز نشان می‌دهد که اثر گذاری آن در همه محصولات مثبت منفی است. لذا پیشنهاد می‎شود به منظور مدیریت کاراتر بر واردات محصولات کشاورزی، حمایت از تولیدکنندگان داخلی و برقراری امنیت غذایی به واسطه‌ی موجود بودن غذا در کشور، از ابزارهای سیاستی مناسب همگام با سیاست‌های تجاری فعلی، استفاده شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
واردات؛ محصولات کشاورزی؛ ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Analysing agricultural products Import Pattern in Iran with the emphasis on unstability of exchange rate (Using VECM and EGARCH methods)
نویسندگان [English]
Omid Gilanpour1؛ Mohammadreza Pakravan2؛ Emran Taheri Rikandeh2
1Member of Science, Institute of Organize Agricultural Economics and Rural Development
2Graduate PhD., Department of Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]
The increasing demand of agricultural commodities as well as weak management of resources has resulted in the country in order to satisfy domestic needs, a large part of the income is spent on the import of these goods. So, in order to better managing the import of agricultural products and identifying the necessary tools to control the indiscriminate importation of these products, in this study, the pattern of imports of agricultural products (wheat, barley, corn, sugar, rice, chicken meat, meat, egg and oilseed) analyzed and evaluated, for the period 1983-2011. The results show that the price policy on imports of egg products, chicken, wheat, due to mainly impact, has the higher importance. So, import tariff on wheat, meat, and barley, as an instrument of trade policy, is very important. The study also shows that the impact of currency fluctuations in the number products is positive (meat) and in some crops (sugar) is negative. Therefore, to efficiently manage on agricultural products imports, supporting local producers and food security through food availability in the country, the appropriate policy instruments to keep pace with current trade policies, should be used.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
import, agricultural products, Iran
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